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Just discovered Enable needs to be supplemented.
€120,000 not an issue, I know, but, as Scott Burton speculates in the RP, what if her work loses its shine or maybe her winter coat comes on?
Interesting.
Remember the band Marillion Joe?
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Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If the Arc is going to be won by an Irish Derby runner think it’s far more likely to be Cracksman. Suspicion is it fell in to place for Capri. With the big three too concerned with each other. Cracksman arguably ridden too prominent at Epsom and too far back in Ireland and fewer races/less exposed than any Ballydoyle three year old. However, Gosden proabably has a better chance with Enable. Impressive in the Oaks, even stiffer test of stamina should suit and unlike both Capri and Cracksman is not in the St Leger. 12/1 Enable worth taking.
Coolmore don’t seem to have many alternatives (Wings Of Eagles and probably Minding out). With Highland Reel going so close last year suspect he’ll be aimed at the race again. If there’s a real top class horse in the line up he’ll get beaten, but when he’s sure to be in the shake up and shortish price/good chance for the King George… 14/1 for the Arc is a good bet.
With Highland Reel disappointing on soft ground at Ascot, I’ve managed to get a Lay bet matched at a small loss @ average odds of 17.35/1. (now Highland Reel losing exactly the same as every other runner). He’s quickly gone back out to 29/1.
Effectively with the amount staked on the Arc compared to how much I stand to win am now on just one horse – Enable @ 10.86/1.
Value Is EverythingSo how good a races were the Voltigeur and Niel really? Maybe Frankie is right afterall.
So how good a races were the Voltigeur and Niel really? Maybe Frankie is right afterall.
Probably not that good, albeit different distance etc yest venice beach went down pretty easily, mirage dancer finished last NTO, douglas macarther unplaced, soanish steps unplaced
Ulysses confirmed today, cant see him not being placed!
So how good a races were the Voltigeur and Niel really? Maybe Frankie is right afterall.
Very fair point indeed.
I think an Enable-Ulysses forecast is looking a very likely outcome.
Capri won with a bit in hand and will have come on for the run so should he get a clear run in the arc will be a good bet to be placed. Enable may be a good thing but I’d certainly run capri if it was mine.
If the Arc is going to be won by an Irish Derby runner think it’s far more likely to be Cracksman. Suspicion is it fell in to place for Capri. With the big three too concerned with each other. Cracksman arguably ridden too prominent at Epsom and too far back in Ireland and fewer races/less exposed than any Ballydoyle three year old. However, Gosden proabably has a better chance with Enable. Impressive in the Oaks, even stiffer test of stamina should suit and unlike both Capri and Cracksman is not in the St Leger. 12/1 Enable worth taking.
Coolmore don’t seem to have many alternatives (Wings Of Eagles and probably Minding out). With Highland Reel going so close last year suspect he’ll be aimed at the race again. If there’s a real top class horse in the line up he’ll get beaten, but when he’s sure to be in the shake up and shortish price/good chance for the King George… 14/1 for the Arc is a good bet.
With Highland Reel disappointing on soft ground at Ascot, I’ve managed to get a Lay bet matched at a small loss @ average odds of 17.35/1. (now Highland Reel losing exactly the same as every other runner). He’s quickly gone back out to 29/1.
Effectively with the amount staked on the Arc compared to how much I stand to win am now on just one horse – Enable @ 10.86/1.
I’ve now laid Enable back @ 1.16/1, so effectively got a free bet.
Value Is EverythingInteresting both NRNB bookmakers are going 3/1 Cracksman. That sounds about right to me and surely an owner has to go for it when a horse has in all probability between a 20% and 30% chance of winning?
Or is Cracksman going for the Champion Stakes? With Ulysses and Winter doubtful for that race he’d probably be around the same 3/1 price NRNB, even though theoretically not his best trip. Opportunity to win a 10f Group 1?
Value Is EverythingGosden says Jack Hobbs goes for the Champion Stakes although given that one’s recent form he won’t be making a space in the trophy cabinet on that alone.
Oppenheimer keeps stressing it’s the trainer’s decision on Cracksman and Gosden wants to win the Arc. Until last weekend he might have considered Enable a good thing but O’Brien now sends a small army to Chantilly. Gosden needs to arm himself fully.
I’m well into Cracksman at 10s in the way I was with Thistlecrack at 15/2 for the KG. All logic says he should go to the Arc and at the price I’m happy to take it on the chin if I’m wrong. At around 6s I wouldn’t bet him but 10/1 V 100% logic should not be rejected.
Took some 16s about capri and i might take a small stake in cracksman at 10/1 if 3/1 is the general nrnb, capris price should be a little closer to cracksmans i feel
Ps, i hope your right SC and he runs so you get a run for your money!
Normally I might have taken a punt on Cracksman at 10/1 but I just have this vision of Gosden telling the owner that the colt can’t beat Enable.
The Niel Cracksman won is one of the poorest I can recall. He was 2/7 Fav, so hardly a surprise he won easily.
The Great Voltigeur seemed at the time to have a bit of quality but runner up Venice Beach and Douglas MacArthur folded like wet concertinas in the St Leger. Mirage Dancer was last of 4 runners as the warm 11/10 Fav next time and the form looks flimsy to me.
Did Cracksman really improve as much as was first thought since the Irish Derby? It seems to me that he just beat slow horses. Venice Beach is no better than Group 3 material.
I had Capri in the St Leger but I doubt he’s an Arc horse.
If I were to play in the Arc now it would be Brametot if the ground is soft. Never at the races last time and usually slowly away, the hold up horse may just get away with it on testing enough ground. It’s hard to see past the fav but her odds are no value now.
I just don’t fancy Cracksman and it’s all very well saying anything can happen next year but if the horse isn’t there yet, there is no point in pushing him and perhaps setting him back. If he’s a late maturing sort, patience may be rewarded next season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The fact that Brametot will probably be the only French three year old running is a red flag in itself. This race is their holy grail. Tells you what they think of their own horses. I share your views on Cracksman´s recent form, but still Capri, Eminent and Cracksman got the French generation covered. Fabre not even considering Waldgeist. Recoletos doesn´t stay. Rivet, Avilius, Finche. Gosh. At least he should stay based on his breeding.
RP reporting significant market support for Cracksman for Champion Stakes. Gosden saying decision will be made this weekend on Arc.
I dont think capri will win steve but ive taken all the big prices about him as should he run he wont be anywhere near that, just got 32s again
But i dont know how you can say you doubt hes an arc horse, but brametot is, hes more of an arc horse than almost all of this foeld he absolutely is an arc horse and deserves his place
Will he win? Probably not but ill lay off once he shortens right up which he will if he shwls
I dont think capri will win steve but ive taken all the big prices about him as should he run he wont be anywhere near that, just got 32s again
But i dont know how you can say you doubt hes an arc horse, but brametot is, hes more of an arc horse than almost all of this foeld he absolutely is an arc horse and deserves his place
Will he win? Probably not but ill lay off once he shortens right up which he will if he shwls
In general, I feel this is a poor crop of 3YO colts. Capri doesn’t look fast enough for me. Brametot has won two Classics and I am trying to envisage Capri being speedy enough to win a Guineas. I just can’t see it. I don’t fancy Brametot strongly at all but I just don’t like Leger winners in the Arc.
For all that this year’s Leger was better than quite a few of late, I think that some of them ended up in it because they weren’t thought capable of something better.
It’s just my personal take on it. I don’t have anything I feel confident about for the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Gosden confirms Cracksman won’t run in one of the most head-scratching decisions in recent memory:
Gosden confirms Cracksman won’t run in one of the most head-scratching decisions in recent memory:
He does this from time to time. I still haven’t got over Gosden stupidly withdrawing Golden Horn from the King George a couple of years ago.
Personally I thought Cracksman was tailor-made for the Leger however as he was never going to run there the Arc was always the only reasonable “other” target.
Silly decision not to run in my book, won’t have the pace for the Champion Stakes, this horse is a middle distance stayer.
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