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I’ve gone in again on Cloth of Stars 50.0, unfortunately the 190.0 is long gone. Although I’m very disappointed we won’t see him at Ascot, Fabre’s comments – that they’re going to save him for an autumn campaign and step him up to 12f – we’re encouraging for this race. Stamina comes with maturity, and he showed last year in the Grand Prix de Paris that he can stay the trip well enough, so the dream is still very much on.
I’v also added: Capri 290.0 and Al Wukair 300.0
Just took the 390.0 on Wings of Desire. Could well become a major player for the King George after his comeback run today.
With this year’s classic generation of colts looking abysmal (perhaps bar one), it feels like this could be a year for a filly or an older horse. Surprisingly the bookies haven’t yet reacted to today’s developments. Brametot is the only potential exception at the moment but he may just be the best of a bad bunch.
Almanzor is the obvious starting point but his yard have had some kind of disease all year and it’s hard to know where we stand with his wellbeing. Minding is also under a cloud after a mid-season injury.
In contrast to the colts, this year’s 3yo fillies look outstanding, so Enable at 10/1 looks like a play at this point. Hopefully Ballydoyle give the wonderful Highland Reel a mid-season break too, as this could be a golden opportunity for him to steal an Arc. It would be a real shame if he got to France goosed after being flogged in too many middling G1s on the way.
It’s my first venture into this market so far this season. Highland Reel (14/1) and Enable (10/1) join the squad.
I’v also added: Capri 290.0 and Al Wukair 300.0
Ei ei. Very nice indeed!
I’v also added: Capri 290.0 and Al Wukair 300.0
Ei ei. Very nice indeed!
Thank you LS, naturally I’m very happy with that position. I too think that this year’s renewal will probably be won by an older horse or filly, but I can’t help but feel some quiet confidence with Capri now. If he gets his soft ground – which is highly likely for October in Chantilly, he could be a player. I’m tempted to go in again at 60.0, how many Irish Derby winners have been that kind of price for an Arc in the immediate aftermath of their win? Not many I’d wager.
I have bet Capri as well Voleur at 25-1 as I can’t believe he is that price after The Curragh. Good luck with your bet that is a great voucher you have.
I am aware that not many firms have this pair priced up, but I would love to see Benbatl or especially Thunder Snow get aimed at Longchamp and 33-1 for the latter is the one who am I am going to risk
If the Arc is going to be won by an Irish Derby runner think it’s far more likely to be Cracksman. Suspicion is it fell in to place for Capri. With the big three too concerned with each other. Cracksman arguably ridden too prominent at Epsom and too far back in Ireland and fewer races/less exposed than any Ballydoyle three year old. However, Gosden proabably has a better chance with Enable. Impressive in the Oaks, even stiffer test of stamina should suit and unlike both Capri and Cracksman is not in the St Leger. 12/1 Enable worth taking.
Coolmore don’t seem to have many alternatives (Wings Of Eagles and probably Minding out). With Highland Reel going so close last year suspect he’ll be aimed at the race again. If there’s a real top class horse in the line up he’ll get beaten, but when he’s sure to be in the shake up and shortish price/good chance for the King George… 14/1 for the Arc is a good bet.
Value Is EverythingWith this year’s classic generation of colts looking abysmal (perhaps bar one), it feels like this could be a year for a filly or an older horse. Surprisingly the bookies haven’t yet reacted to today’s developments. Brametot is the only potential exception at the moment but he may just be the best of a bad bunch.
Almanzor is the obvious starting point but his yard have had some kind of disease all year and it’s hard to know where we stand with his wellbeing. Minding is also under a cloud after a mid-season injury.
In contrast to the colts, this year’s 3yo fillies look outstanding, so Enable at 10/1 looks like a play at this point. Hopefully Ballydoyle give the wonderful Highland Reel a mid-season break too, as this could be a golden opportunity for him to steal an Arc. It would be a real shame if he got to France goosed after being flogged in too many middling G1s on the way.
It’s my first venture into this market so far this season. Highland Reel (14/1) and Enable (10/1) join the squad.
Missed your post LS.
Great minds think alike!
Value Is EverythingI fear this could be a substandard renewal with the Derby winner (WOE) and the top 2 European horses (Almanzor and Minding) unlikely to run whilst the 3 year old colt division looks so poor.
For that reason, does anyone know if the Japanese have a special-ish horse this year?
I have it in my mind that before 2020 they will finally win an Arc and, with it looking a below par field already, fell perhaps this is their best chance.
As it is, I’ve played nothing at the moment. Highland reel each way at 14s or 40/1 Order of st George each way look the only two of interest. I still think Al Wukair was a Derby horse if fit and perhaps he would be worth a few quid if turning up at a likely double figure price. Coronet will be st Leger bound but I still think she’s a brilliant filly who only got beat in the oaks because she hated both the weather and the downhill run at Tattenham corner. If by some miracle she ran here, id probably have a small play on her too. She owes me nothing after her Ascot win though
The best of the Japanese contingent would be Satono Diamond (winner of the Japanese St Leger and 2nd in the Japanese Derby), Satono Crown (winner of the Hong Kong Vase and 3rd in the Japanese Derby), Kitasan Black (Another winner of the Japanese St Leger and the winner of 5 Gr. 1 races, aswell as placing in 4 more), and Ray de Oro (winner of the Japanese Derby).
Of these Kitasan Black represents the best value in my opinion at around 400.0 (backed him myself just today). He’s a thorough stayer who would give Highland Reel or OOSG something to worry about out in front. Satono Diamond sits around the 15.0 mark. Ray de Oro isn’t priced up on the Exchange but Sky Bet have him at 33/1.
P.S if you fancy Al Wukair he can still be backed at crazy odds on the exchange.
Volly, I’m in love with the horse and think he’ll win a G1 in the next couple of months. Just can’t quite make myself believe that a Dream Ahead colt is going to win the Arc.
I agree LS it would certainly go against all the unwritten rules of breeding, but stranger things have happened, be it Leicester winning the league.
The way he goes to sleep in races, conserving energy, coupled with the mild stamina in his distaff side through Machiavellien and Caerleon, strongly suggests to me that he’d get 10f. The 12f of the Arc is anther ball park altogether, but in a particularly open year, the odds of 300.0 were worth a shot in the dark.
The best of the Japanese contingent would be Satono Diamond (winner of the Japanese St Leger and 2nd in the Japanese Derby), Satono Crown (winner of the Hong Kong Vase and 3rd in the Japanese Derby), Kitasan Black (Another winner of the Japanese St Leger and the winner of 5 Gr. 1 races, aswell as placing in 4 more), and Ray de Oro (winner of the Japanese Derby).
Of these Kitasan Black represents the best value in my opinion at around 400.0 (backed him myself just today). He’s a thorough stayer who would give Highland Reel or OOSG something to worry about out in front. Satono Diamond sits around the 15.0 mark. Ray de Oro isn’t priced up on the Exchange but Sky Bet have him at 33/1.
Cheers Voleur
Perhaps this is their year then
I’ve backed Brametot at 8/1 and I think he’s the one in an uninspiring field.
Almanzor keeps having his comeback pushed back and he’s not guaranteed to be suited by the trip anyway.
Brametot landed the French Guineas and Derby. His hold up style causes heart failure and he’s been winning narrowly but he could be the one to quicken best at this trip and there is every possibility that we have not got to the bottom of him yet. Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget says the colt is much better than he was last season and he could prove very tough to beat.
You wouldn’t think Rouget will be fretting about Cracksman et al and Jack Hobbs ran like a box of rawl plugs last time. I would hope that Brametot takes in one of the French trial races and would expect him to be a clear favourite if he wins it and Almanzor gets another delay to his comeback.
Brametot all day for me at 8/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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