Lavazza Silver Cup 2017

Really looking forward to this one, it’s usually a very decent field……

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2017-12-23/689515

Art Mauresque – He’s always promised to deliver plenty, but it hasn’t quite happened. Don’t want to be too dismissive of his current wellbeing, as back here on his seasonal debut, he got no further than the first, but it’s his previous form that would raise more question marks. He’s in the right hands, but looks high on what he’s achieved, and question marks over the trip. 33’s

As De Mee – Really nice type, who was an impressive winner of The Grand Sefton last year, and also proved his wellbeing with a smart run behind Might Bite last time. Early casualty though in The Becher, and though he looks a massive price on his best form, would he be coming here as soon. 33’s

Ballykan – Ran a bit flat here last time, but previously had ran well enough behind the very decent Rock The Kasbash, at Chepstow. On the face of it, he looks just short of this, but he seems to have got rid of the mental issues he had, and he shaped very well in The Betbright at Kempton, off of a 5lb higher mark. Yard having a decent season so far, and I have him down as a live one here. Close to being my #1, but have to hold fire, as he holds an entry at Cheltenham on Friday 20’s

Beware The Bear – It was hard not be impressed with him at Newcastle last week, when he came from way back to win The Rehearsal Chase, despite a slipped saddle. I don’t think the 5 lb rise should stop him at all, but he also holds an entry for The Welsh National, and maybe one to tread warily with until running plans become clearer. Obvious claims though 7’s

Bigbadjohn – Landed The Reynoldstown here last season, but that was a shocking renewal, and he’s done next to nothing since, including in The Ladbroke when he was never sighted. Stable having a difficult time of it, and looks hard to recommend. Looks poor value at this time, as low as 16’s in places. 20’s

Bishops Road – After a spell in the wilderness, he was slowly, starting to look well handicapped, and this proved to be the case in last weeks Rehearsal, running his best race for some time. Would like it soft enough, and should run his race, but he wouldn’t be on my shortlist right now, as he’s another with Chepstow on the agenda. 20’s

Caroles Destrier – Never really landed a blow at Newbury last weekend, and this followed on from another moderate performance in last years Welsh National. However, it’s just over a year since he chased Native River home in The Hennessy, and the handicapper has given him a proper chance. He’s already cost me cash this season, when he missed The Badger Ales, but with course form, and a feeling that this is just the race his trainer would seriously target, then at 20’s, he’s near the top of the shortlist. 20’s

Clondaw Cian – Looks up against it here, and struggling to find a run that would give him too much of a squeak. However, bearing that in mind, the sheer fact he’s in there, for a yard I like to follow, a yard that’s won it before, means I’m not writing him off……just yet, and he showed a liking for the track last month, but still, hardly shortlist material either. 20’s

Fortunate George – Very impressive winner here last month, and beat a few decent yardsticks in the process. The 10lb rise for that win, asks plenty more of him, but the manner of that victory suggests there might be more to come, despite the tougher opposition here, and he has definite potential. No surprise to see him as low as 11’s. 12’s

Frodon – Ran a more than adequate race behind Might Bite at Sandown, before eventually getting going behind Top Notch a week later as Ascot. That’s decent company, and bearing in mind how he performed last year, there’s no doubt a prize like this is a realistic target. Definite chance. 12’s

Go Conquer – A horse I’ve mentioned several times the last few weeks, and they ain’t shy with his entries. Hasn’t taken up any of them since an ultra impressive winner here at the start of last month, a performance that made me sit up and take note. Connections have mooted The National as the target, and he doesn’t want to be winning too much more with his mark in mind for Aintree. He’s in at Cheltenham next week for The Caspian Caivar, and quite simply, he looks to have a big future. Very risky antepost mind. 13-2

Gold Present – Fine winner at Newbury last week, he’s another who could have The Caspian Caviar as the plan. He still looks well treated, and that’s without mentioning his second in The Close Bros Novices at The Festival. Step up in trip should suit, and he’d be worth considering, but for that Cheltenham entry, and he’s another who looks worth holding fire with for now. 10’s

Icing On The Cake – Nice enough at his own level, and certainly wasn’t disgraced at Newbury last week, but this is surely a big ask. 33’s

Kings Odyssey – He doesn’t have that much to recommend him here on first glance, however his run in The Caspian Caviar last year, shows they can get him ready for a big prize. This years renewal of that race though, is surely the #1 target. 20’s

Master Dee – I like this horse a lot, and I got a really good run out of him last time at Aintree. He only found On Tour too good that day, and that horse was in the process of confirming that form last week at Newbury, before unseating. Nothing wrong either with his second to Ballyboley at Market Rasen, and with the step up in trip unlikely to be too much of an issue, he has a real chance. 20’s

More of That – Seems a long time ago now that he was beating Annie Power in The Stayers Hurdle, and since then, he suffered from well documenting bleeding issues. I thought he shaped superbly in the early part of 2017, and I was very keen on him for The Grand National. He didn’t really shine at Aintree, but he still strikes me as if he has one last hurrah in him. If back to his best, the mark of 157 shouldn’t be an issue, but his future may be in The Cross Country sphere, and though I realise he definitely won’t be for everyone, he’s high on my list. 16’s

Mystical Knight – I respect any JP horse in this, but Mystical really has a lot to do here surely. Market support would be worth noting of course, but from a yard that doesn’t have it’s trouble to seek, JP surely has better options. 33’s

On Tour – Tidy winner at Aintree, and in the process of running a big race at Newbury last week when unseating. I’m quite keen on him for Cheltehnahm and The Caspian Caviar, but he looks to have an equally good chance here, and another to make the shortlist. 12’s

O O Seven – Hasn’t quite got enough in the book to take this, but visually, I’ve been quite impressed with him, and I can really see him figure here. Yet another though to wait with, as he’s also in at Cheltenham next week. 14’s

Pleasant Company – One of those horse who I’ve banged the drum of, for some time. I think he’s miles better than his overall reputation, and he ran well for a very long way at Aintree. Very nice winner at Punchestown, a year and a half ago, against a very competitive field, and also beat a decent field at Fairyhouse. This looks absolutely perfect for him, though he does have other targets in Ireland over Christmas, and has been pulled from a few races lately, late on. Huge player if he traps here. 10’s

Ptit Zig – Nearly two years since we’ve seen him over fences, though if Huntingdon beats the weather today, we’ll get to see him in The Peterborough Chase. I honestly think they tried to do a “Big Bucks” with him, but despite a fine win at Auteil last year, it’s safe to say that that plan didn’t quite work out. A couple of exits, including in The Peterborough 2 years back, seemed to confirm the suspicion that fences may not be for him, and you can hardly blame connections for trying. The ability was there for sure, and he had loads of decent tries over fences anyway, so if he’s improved on the jumping front, then he has claims, but goes without saying, that it might be advisable to wait until after The Peterborough, at the very least. 16’s

Regal Encore – Last years winner, and a horse I’ve been banging on about for a while now, and he really repaid the faith last Saturday at Newbury, where for reasons which aren’t quite clear, he was allowed to go off at 100’s. Bizarre. Yes, he had a few “PU” next to him, but he as plenty of decent runs as well, and though obviously risky (I feel he’s moody, rather than a JP Plot horse), I’ll always be interested in him. I’ve bet him for Chepstow, so would love him to swerve this, but only 6lbs higher than last year here, and off the back of that big run at Newbury, giving the winner weight, this looks equally appealing. 14’s

Rock Gone – Nine year old, but not too many miles on the clock. Never really landed a blow in The Plate at The Festival, and by far the best run of his career, was chasing Go Conquer home last time. Not out of the question that he can build on that, and his mark has been left unchanged, so he should at the very least be competitive. He’s high enough in the market, based on that one run alone, but his mark could be crucial, and should run his race. 10’s

Sametegal – Often runs well, without getting his head in front, as was the case today in The Grand Sefton. Not convinced this is his trip, and a big ask after todays effort to be back out in a fortnight. 20’s

Singlefarmpayment – Market leader. Big fan of this horse, and thought he looked very progressive last year. His run in The Ultima was rock solid, and he came up against the more than capable Cogry, who was on a going day, for his seasonal reappearance. He wasn’t going to trouble the front two at Newbury in The Ladbroke, but he was one of the few also rans who actually ran his race, and after a strange ride, he was at least improving when he came to grief. I can see him in The Gold Cup one day, and hard to rule him out at all for this, though he’s as low as 5’s right now, and how much lower will he actually be on the day. An easy decision to hold any bets with this guy. 11-2

Sizing Codelco – Blew me away at Aintree in the spring, and was just as impressive at Punchestown. I didn’t think, I was convinced, that he had a big big season ahead of him, but it has been dismal to date, with three very poor efforts. There seems quite clearly to be something amiss with the horse, and after somewhat predictably, being pulled up in The Becher today, he was the first one I ruled out here. 33’s

Solstice Son – Led the field a merry dance at Cheltenham last time, and I was quite taken by him. Not quite enough in the book to go overboard with, but trainer in decent form, and if just a shade more restraint with him, and I think he could just surprise a few. He wouldn’t want it any worse than soft though, so although I’m more than happy to mark him down as a very interesting outside, I’d be less than happy to bet him this far out. 40’s

Southfield Theatre – He was an excellent second in The 2016 Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, and then fell at the last in The Badger Ales, with the race won, and he looks well treated, but he just hasn’t stepped up since. I do like him, and he will bounce back surely, but he was lifeless today at Sandown, and not sure we’ll see him out only a fortnight later, after todays laboured effort. 20’s

The Young Master – Got the better of Southfield Theatre that day at Sandown, and he looked destined for bigger and better things, but the wheels really have came off. Has got jumping issues to contend with, as well as another “so so” performance today in The Becher. A very big ask to take this in a fortnight later. 25’s

Traffic Fluide – Another who promised so much, but hasn’t quite delivered. To be fair to him though, an injury didn’t help, and I haven’t completely given up on him/ Despite hitting 3 Miles in The Betfair, I’d still have the trip down as an unknown, as impossible to gauge him on that run, behind Bristol De Mai. Overall form leaves him with a bit to find, but still, there’s just something telling me that this might, just might, be the day he bounces back. Interesting, and looks overpriced. 25’s

Viconte Du Noyer – Looked one to keep on side, after a really game win at Cheltenham last year, but that race doesn’t read that well now. His second at Punchestown is his best since, but even then, he was well behind the impressive winner. He carried a few pounds of mine last time, and he never looked likely. I don’t doubt he’ll pop up soon, he’s on his last winning mark, but I’m not convinced by Stable form just now, and I’ll pass over him just now, though he’ll probably be worth re-visiting on the day. Despite those doubts, he isn’t the worst value here. 33’s

Virgilio – Not disgraced at all in good company the last year and a half, but after a win against modest opposition at Aintree earlier in the year, he looks high enough in the weights. No slouch by any means, but this might be too demanding. 20’s

Walk In The Mill – More than capable on his day, as can be seen by the 3 wins he’s had in the last year, and not to mention shaping well in defeat on a couple of occasions. Should put it up to a few of these, and acts round here, but he is on a career high mark. Big ask off that mark, but more than worthy of an entry for something like this, and might just be the case that he hasn’t stopped progressing. 16’s

Yala Enki – Easy to put a line through him after The Badger Ales, and The Rehearsal, where he didn’t look good enough, but I don’t think those races paint the full picture though. He shaped well enough at Newcastle till the business end, and 3 weeks should be long enough to get him ready for this, and any runners from this yard around this time of year at Ascot, are worth a second look. Hard to recommend on his last 2 runs, but you don’t have to go too far back to give him a live chance here. 14’s

I think Solstice Son, the outsider of the field at the moment is interesting then, as is Traffic Fluide at a relatively decent price.

Too many made the early shortlist, so had to trim it a little, and down to these five (for now)……

Ballykan 20’s
Caroles Destrier 20’s
Frodon 12’s
Go Conquer 13-2
More Of That 16’s

I think Go Conquer could prove very good indeed, and that 13-2 would be proper value on the day, but makes no sense to back right now, while I’m very keen on Ballykan, but can’t risk him now, as like Go Conquer, he holds an entry next weekend.

No bet for now.

GL