- This topic has 709 replies, 66 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I am on Brain Power but he does need the ground to dry and a fast pace. Not sure that Petit Mouchoir is the strongest stayer and he might just mess about in front. It will be bad news if it just turns into a burn-up from two out.
I don’t see a “burn up from two out” being at all likely, Stilvi. The New One’s best recent races have been from the front and his only chance at this trip is to make it as much of a test of stamina as possible. Hope the Twisters take Petit Mouchoir on… Although sadly, something that may well be as important (to TNO’s jumping) is Richard Johnson.
Value Is EverythingBrain Power has had 3 runs left handed.
1st start he won a bumper beating now 128 rated Big River by 0.5L in receipt of 7lb, 4L back in 3rd was Double Ws who was giving him 17lb.
He was then thoroughly smashed by the legend that is Barters Hill in an Aintree bumper beaten 26L in receipt of 6lb.
The he ran off a mark off 145 and was beat 20L in the greatwood. discounting the first run he has been beat 46L on his last 2 runs going left handed.
Pointless stat?
Clearly he is a completely different horse in his last 2 runs than he has been in any other run of his career whether it was right or left handedThe market appears has made it’s mind up. It’s now looking like Yanworth will go of favourite, currently as short as 5/2 and no bigger than 3/1. The Irish might punt Petit Mouchoir into second favouritism on the day and I can see Buveur D’air starting at a bigger price than the general 4/1 offered about at the moment.
Oddly enough the two race reports that I have read for the Greatwood Hurdle state that Brain Power was outpaced in the race. That doesn’t tie in with the notion that he was fast enough but faded up the hill.
lol!
Moon racer is more likely to come here now than the supreme, will be decided by tomorrow but ive been told as of right now its CH over supreme
Hopefully, that should sway neon wolf and lets dance to different races
Not surprising if Moon Racer goes for the Champion. It’s a decision not unlike Coneygree’s Gold Cup, the pair being fragile. So probability of making it to next season’s Champion is less than a sounder horse. Makes sense to go for the Champion whilst in A1 condition. Added to that, Martin Pipe won this with novice Make A Stand and son David and owners won the 3m handicap last year with novice chaser Un Temps Pour Tout. So they’ve all got history doing well with novices in open company.
Can’t see it swaying the other two though.
Neon Wolf looks a worthy fav for the Neptune and will get the test of stamina he needs in that race.
Supreme is the same distance as the much easier Mares Novice. So if Let’s Dance goes anywhere other than the mares novice (which seems the logical race) I’d have thought Neptune is second choice.Value Is EverythingNot surprising if Moon Racer goes for the Champion. It’s a decision not unlike Coneygree’s Gold Cup, the pair being fragile. So probability of making it to next season’s Champion is less than a sounder horse. Makes sense to go for the Champion whilst in A1 condition. Added to that, Martin Pipe won this with novice Make A Stand and son David and owners won the 3m handicap last year with novice chaser Un Temps Pour Tout. So they’ve all got history doing well with novices in open company.
Can’t see it swaying the other two though.
Neon Wolf looks a worthy fav for the Neptune and will get the test of stamina he needs in that race.
Supreme is the same distance as the much easier Mares Novice. So if Let’s Dance goes anywhere other than the mares novice (which seems the logical race) I’d have thought Neptune is second choice.Agree i just liked the way neon wolf dismissed elgin over just short of 2m,think hed win either, 50/50 apprantly but all these little changes, like moon racer switching could sway it either way im happy enough….. lets dance will go neptune if anywhere other than MAres novice for sure
Moon racer is more likely to come here now than the supreme, will be decided by tomorrow but ive been told as of right now its CH over supreme
Hopefully, that should sway neon wolf and lets dance to different races
Who told you that?
I can understand why they are contemplating it but at the same time MR has very little chance of winning a CH and a far more likely chance of winning the Supreme.
Not surprising if Moon Racer goes for the Champion. It’s a decision not unlike Coneygree’s Gold Cup, the pair being fragile. So probability of making it to next season’s Champion is less than a sounder horse. Makes sense to go for the Champion whilst in A1 condition.
Agree with you Ginge. It looks like connections think MR has a shout in the CH or i dont think they would take this long to consider it myself. What would be the point to run in the CH top five when that would be good enough to win the Supreme no doubt.
Moon racer is more likely to come here now than the supreme, will be decided by tomorrow but ive been told as of right now its CH over supreme
Hopefully, that should sway neon wolf and lets dance to different races
Who told you that?
I can understand why they are contemplating it but at the same time MR has very little chance of winning a CH and a far more likely chance of winning the Supreme.
Fairly confident vautour…
Someone who would know what way there swaying….. i agree id leave him in the supreme, but will be happy if he comes out! Could be doing with a reshuffle in the neptune/supreme markets!
My idea off the winner off the champion hurdle is a horse called petite monchur…improved all season seeing his races out better had this as the target all season think will lead and hold on up the hill I think it’s a below par champion and 6-1 will do me.
He is not the biggest winner in my antepost book but I’m coming round to Yanworth. Would like to see moonracer (if he runs) and these are my 2 on the day.
Agree with SteveCaution regarding Brain Power (BP).He’s the only CH candidate I’ve been truly impressed with this term. The lack of a run since Ascot probably reflects the lack of support. Most of the horses behind him at Ascot have boosted the form and a good judge I know said he had improved considerably (physically) from Sandown; if Mr Henderson can improve him another 25% to 50% off that latest improvement he’s possibly capable of running to between 165 & 170 which would give him an excellent chance. He’s been knocked for not handling Cheltenham which to me is laughable as he’s only run there once and that was on seasonal debut ridden by a jockey who’ shall we say, has a habit of just doing enough. Mr H has a pretty impressive role call with his CH horses so I’m more than happy to have 25/1. I might back something else on the day but he’ll do me as an AP wager.
A good jockey doesn't need orders and a bad jockey couldn't carry them out; so it's best not to give them any.
Some beautiful green books on show in this thread, well played all.
My only bet in the race so far is Brain Power 16/1 e/w, which was mainly a value grab in anticipation of the race cutting up. I’m sure I’ve got a live runner but I would have liked to see him have a prep run and prove himself left-handed.
I was on the verge of backing Yanworth after he won the Christmas Hurdle but just don’t think he’s the right type for this race. The course is quite sharp nowadays, so you really want your horse to travel and be in exactly the right place turning for home. Yanworth is not that horse. No hurdler travels better than Buveur D’Air, who really is hypnotic in full flow with that rhythmic stride and slow bob of the head.
I’m not really sold on Petit Mouchoir, whose two G1 wins have been rather opportunistic. I think Nichols Canyon resented being headed and Footpad really should have beaten him last time. I suppose there’s potential for him to steal this from the front too but surely you don’t catch top jockeys napping in a showpiece G1 too often.
I think The New One is established as a rung below the best and MTOY is on the downgrade, while Footpad‘s style is probably not ideal for the tactical race this could become. I don’t think Vroum Vroum Mag could run high 160s at 2m even if in peak form.
All that said, I’m talking myself into a little win-only Buveur D’Air, who is the only one who grabs me at the current prices. He was better than the result in the Supreme last year and did extremely well to beat the Warwick pace bias over fences early in the season despite making mistakes.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.