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I’m checking the market regularly, and just hopeful at the moment, rather than confident.A lot of ramifications as a result of Buveur D’Air switching to the Champion Hurdle.
Not only Yanworth + Jezki backers that should be concerned – also Brain Power backers. It’s a very unconventional route he’s taking to the race and now Henderson is pretty much openly saying that Buveur D’Air is a better horse.
People right now are completely guessing with Yorkhill and it’s funny to watch. One moment he’s 17, the next he’s 27, then back to 17. You’ve just got to get him onside at the price, even if it’s just a fiver. I have about £6 on at an average of around 23. It’s the same situ as Buveur D’Air. If he runs, for whatever reason, he’s instantly a 4/1 shot.
Ivanovich Gorbatov is there at 140. Absolutely without question worth £2. Wherever he runs at the Festival, if he doesn’t win, he will go mighty close.
All I want, is him re-introduced to The Exchange Market, as my bets will be re-instated in that scenario as well. He should be on there already, as 4 firms have introduced him into the betting, including Betfair Sportsbook. He’s as low as 12’s with Bet365, and I’m very hopeful to see him there soon.
You can just ask the helpdesk to add him.
People right now are completely guessing with Yorkhill and it’s funny to watch. One moment he’s 17, the next he’s 27, then back to 17. You’ve just got to get him onside at the price, even if it’s just a fiver. I have about £6 on at an average of around 23. It’s the same situ as Buveur D’Air. If he runs, for whatever reason, he’s instantly a 4/1 shot.
Literally 45 minutes later and Yorkhill is now very solid at 12.5/13.5. It’s 2am ffs!
Petit Mouchoir supporters happy? Hmmm…did set a strong gallop but…he’s beaten Nichols Canyon twice…and that’s all he’s done…Buveur D’Air must go Champion Hurdle?
Who’s the only horse to have beaten ‘Faugheen’ Zark?
Gord, I’ve been playing around with the idea of NC winning this today for a few reasons.
Hors La Loi (4 > 7), Brave Inca (6 > 8) and Binocular (4 > 6) took a bit of time to improve to get to Champion Hurdle-winning standard.
-They all had very good Festival Grade 1 novice hurdle performances under their belt – 1st, 2nd and 2nd respectively in the Supreme
-They all placed in a Champion Hurdle previously
I’m sure there are other similarities, but these are the main two. Nichols Canyon comes close to this profile – he finished 3rd in the Neptune rather than placed in the Supreme, and of course he came 3rd in this race last year.
But I think the similarities end there. I just don’t see any obvious improvement from last year. He’s contested 9 2 mile Grade 1s in total;
2 mile Grade 1s on soft/heavy: U1131
2 mile Grade 1s on good-soft/yielding: 132
2 mile Grade 1s on good: F (when about to finish 3rd)So we see a far better strike-rate in softer conditions, 60% on soft/heavy (75% when completing) and 25% (33%) on anything quicker.
I also can’t get over his Neptune form, 3rd behind Windsor Park and Parlour Games. He only beat Vyta Du Roc a head in that race. That is not a sign of a top 2-miler.
Then I went back to watch a replay of the Irish Champion Hurdle. Look at these few seconds in particular (0:24 > 0:28):
Look at the stride of Petit Mouchoir. A clear quick ground action, bouncing off the ground. Then look at the far longer soft ground action of Nichols Canyon.
Then look here, a vital part of the race (2:49):
Ruby’s taken NC up to challenge PM, but they jump the hurdle 1/2L apart and almost instantly PM’s 2L clear, Ruby’s off the bridle and it’s race over.
I do not believe that this horse is top class over 2 miles on quick ground. I believe he will get outpaced on quick ground against better horses than were in last year’s Champion Hurdle.
Conversely, if Petit Mouchoir’s forte is that cruising speed of his and he tries doing that in the Champion Hurdle, it won’t be Footpad that’ll be bearing down on him – it’ll be Buveur D’Air, Yanworth, Faugheen?, Superb Story, etc. Better horses than Footpad, and they will go past him.
Yanworth is pretty weak, out to 8.8.
And Yorkhill was last matched at 9.0. He was about 17 to back 1 1/2 hours ago at 1.15am. Now it’s 2.40am and he’s 9.0.
Interestingly I noticed that the other £3 at 1000 on Briar Hill for the JLT was matched earlier. I wonder if this is a Wylie switcharound, with Briar Hill his JLT horse and Yorkhill his Champion Hurdle runner.
There is a bad smell in this market. Yanworth is 100/1 in the lay column on Betfair. is he injured or been working bad?
Well done to those on BD at massive prices!
You’ve played this race perfectly.
Those who haven’t bet BD at big prices (myself included) are probably thinking what the **** is going on lol.
I’m now totally baffled! I feel like my bets are screwed on yanworth but I have no idea what to back now, every horse has a big question mark over it!Faugheen – hasn’t ran for 14 months
Yanworth – BD switch shows lack of confidence and also on a massive drift, is he injured?
Petit mouchoir – never thought this was good enough to win but this horse now has the smallest question mark hovering over it and that is that BD beat him twice over hurdles already but PM has improved.
Buveur D’air – not an ideal route to take to champion hurdle and if this wins the champion hurdle then how far would min or altior of won it by? This is what puts me off BD most!
Brain power – again no confidence in this horse if hendo needs to switch BD. but interested to see how this one runs Saturday
Yorkhill- I think stays JLT
With all those question marks does that now mean that the value is to be had with some of the higher prices runners?
Thoughts?
Brain power – again no confidence in this horse if hendo needs to switch BD. but interested to see how this one runs Saturday
IMO I dont think that Hendo is switching BD because of a lack of faith in Brain Power, more a case of JP having a lack of faith in Yanworth and Jezski going to the stayers.
Brain Power seems to be quite strong the last few weeks.
That’s a good point botchy, the lack of faith is much more of a concern over yanworth rather than brain power. Luckily I had a little on brain power at 12/1 not so long ago. Hoping for a good run Saturday and he may be the horse for me
I’m a massive Faugheen fan but my head is telling me to back Petit Mouchoir at 5/1 NRNB with Paddy Power. I would have liked to at least seen Faugheen race before I go ploughing into him at 6/4. Even if he turns up, and I really believe he will, do you go with the horse that hasn’t run in 14 months at 6/4 (or god knows what price on the day) or do you side with the Match Fit horse at 5/1…. if Faugheen was to pull out then PM would be 3/1 or 5/2 on the day and I would have missed the boat. Think I’ll sit tight for the moment
Racing post confirms yanworth has a minor setback and potentially may go straight to Cheltenham or the kingwell.
Hopefully that is the reason for the drift and it’s not as bad as first thought but still not idealNot to mention the fact that Alan King was woefully out of form by the time the last festival came around and the rest of his horses ran like drains all week…
That’d be standard Festival Alan King. If he’s not injuring his horses, he’s getting them beat.
Just call me ‘The Prophet’
So potentially no Faugheen or Yanworth. This news about Yanworth is great for those that have Yorkhill
Brain power – again no confidence in this horse if hendo needs to switch BD. but interested to see how this one runs Saturday
IMO I dont think that Hendo is switching BD because of a lack of faith in Brain Power, more a case of JP having a lack of faith in Yanworth and Jezski going to the stayers.
Brain Power seems to be quite strong the last few weeks.
Buveur D’Air switch has no link to Brain Power at all, other than one extra runner. The more runners the better as far as Brain Power is concerned. Doubt that anything would give Nicky more pleasure than training a Champion Hurdle winner for Michael Buckley. He isn’t going to do anything to lessen the chances of that outcome.
Brain power – again no confidence in this horse if hendo needs to switch BD. but interested to see how this one runs Saturday
IMO I dont think that Hendo is switching BD because of a lack of faith in Brain Power, more a case of JP having a lack of faith in Yanworth and Jezski going to the stayers.
Brain Power seems to be quite strong the last few weeks.
Buveur D’Air switch has no link to Brain Power at all, other than one extra runner. The more runners the better as far as Brain Power is concerned. Doubt that anything would give Nicky more pleasure than training a Champion Hurdle winner for Michael Buckley. He isn’t going to do anything to lessen the chances of that outcome.
So you’re telling me that if Brain Power were the dog’s bollocks, Nicky Hendo wouldn’t be telling JP there’s no point in running Buveur D’Air?
Brain power – again no confidence in this horse if hendo needs to switch BD. but interested to see how this one runs Saturday
IMO I dont think that Hendo is switching BD because of a lack of faith in Brain Power, more a case of JP having a lack of faith in Yanworth and Jezski going to the stayers.
Brain Power seems to be quite strong the last few weeks.
Buveur D’Air switch has no link to Brain Power at all, other than one extra runner. The more runners the better as far as Brain Power is concerned. Doubt that anything would give Nicky more pleasure than training a Champion Hurdle winner for Michael Buckley. He isn’t going to do anything to lessen the chances of that outcome.
So you’re telling me that if Brain Power were the dog’s bollocks, Nicky Hendo wouldn’t be telling JP there’s no point in running Buveur D’Air?
He isn’t though, is he? We are talking an 8/1 shot, not 1/8. If JP wants to run he is hardly going to say I have already got an 8/1 shot, don’t bother. Conversely, he is not going to tell Buckley that Buveur D’Air is running now so you better not turn up. Like everyone else Henderson probably doesn’t know the ceiling of Brain Power’s improvement.
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