Topham 2016

One of the highlights for me of an indifferent 2014/15 Season was the victory of Rajdhani Express in this race last year, and his stablemate Hunt Ball placing was the icing on the cake. That was very much the exception though, and it remains a race where I usually struggle. To be honest, I’m not that big a fan of the race, but it still presents a challenge for those trying to dig out a winner, and I’ll give it a bash as usual.

With Rajdhani & Hunt Ball making the frame last year, it continued a great run for Nicky Henderson in this race, and that was his 3rd win in a row. Just the 2 entries this year, in the shape of Captain Conan & Cocktails At Dawn. Captain Conan hasn’t won for 3 years, though to be fair, he hasn’t been seen much since then, with him having had his fair share of problems. First impressions would suggest that he’s one to swerve, but he’s absolutely crashed down the weights, and this, I believe is his first foray into handicaps. He ran well for a long way last time in The Ryanair, and this would be a slightly different proposition off of 143, having just ran against the likes of Vautour off levels. Very interesting. Cocktails at Dawn took care of As De Mee, Native River & Blaklion at Chepstow earlier in the season, and he’d be coming here on 3 timer if not for his last run. His last run though off of this mark, in The Paddy Power, was very disappointing, and although conditions here won’t be as gruelling as they were that day, I’d like to have seen him get a prep run. Definite chance on early season form.

Rajdhani Express was ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen last year, and there’s no question that he’s got a formidable record round here, and his record in modern times is unequalled. It would be wise to give any potential mounts a second look, and his dad Robert has 2 entries, Warne & Anquetta. Warne is already a winner round here in the past, with Sam on board of course, having won the 2014 Foxhunter, though he did rather blot his copybook with an early exit in the same race last year. He also holds an entry for The Foxhunter again, and you’d suspect that he’s only in here, should anything go wrong with Anquetta. Anquetta, once in the hands of Nicky Henderson hasn’t fulfilled his early promise, and seems to be on the downgrade. Despite the obvious advantage of Waley-Cohen in the saddle, he’s very hard to recommend, and it may be this year that their best prospect of a family winner lies in The Foxhunter with Warne.

Nicky Henderson, along with Peter Bowen, have won 8 of the last 10 renewals, and this domination was only interrupted by Paul Nicholls & Nigel Twiston-Davies.

Twiston-Davies has got a few potential runners this time around, with Astracad, Ballykan, Big Casino, Bristol De Mai, and Minella Reception in there. Astracad is a horse I’ve bet many a time, and he comes here off the back of a decent effort in The Plate at Cheltenham. Although 2 miles is probably his optimum distance, and he did seem to eventually weaken at Cheltenham, he is the type to be plugging on at the end, so the trip wouldn’t be as much of a concern, more his tendency to clout a couple. He won’t get away with that round here, but I’ve long wanted to see him given a chance round here, and off the back of that Cheltenham run, an each way case could be made for him at 40’s. I don’t think that Minella Reception, or particularly Big Casino will prove good enough for this, but that hardly applies to his remaining two, who’re both in the same ownership. Bristol De Mai is clearly going to be a high end chaser, and for that reason, I’d be slightly surprised if he took this in, with such prizes as The Manifesto seemingly more appropriate. Ballykan however, looks much more interesting. Seemingly not good enough in The Ultima at The Festival, having travelled very well until 3 out, I still can’t forget how he lobbed round in The Betbright at Cheltenham, and despite being known predominately as a 3 miler, I think that this trip might be more like it. He’ll have another couple of pounds off his back, and he’s not readily dismissed.

Nicholls has a strong entry, with As De Mee, Bouvreuil, Fago, Orbasa, Pacha Du Polder, and Ruben Cotter all in there. As De Mee was last seen in The JLT, and though put in his place that day, he wasn’t disgraced, and this is different proposition altogether. Big ask I suppose for a Novice, but he has the look of a horse who’s future lies in the top end handicaps, though I’d be a little surprised if he actually ended up in this race at the meeting. Obvious claims if he did. Bouvreuil, also a Novice, is a horse I like an awful lot, and he ran a cracker at Cheltenham in The Close Brothers Novice, finding only Ballyalton too good. He’s gone up a few pounds for that, but I reckon he’s got bags of potential, and despite only being a 5yo, he seems relatively streetwise, and he’s definitely considered. Orbasa, based on his runs in England so far is hard to weigh up, and I’ll leave him for the timebeing, while Pacha Du Polder, who admittedly looks in top nick, may head for The Foxhunter. If he did swerve The Foxhunter for this, I could see him being very popular. Fago & Ruben Cotter have both taken in this race before, and both are worth a second look. Fago was absolutely cantering in this 2 years ago, when he got it all wrong 4 out, the big open ditch, and he came down. The way he travelled that day was eyecatching, and he returned to Aintree this season, in The Grand Sefton. He ran on nicely that day, and despite a couple of minor errors at The Chair and Foinavon, I reckon he wasn’t hard pushed, and it had “sighter” written all over it. I quite fancy him to give Graham Wylie another big race win, and he’s just given preference to Ruben Cotter, who was 5th in this last year. That 5th was a decent showing, it was a tough, tough renewal, and he wasn’t too far away at the end. You can be assured that this is the plan, and with an, albeit, slightly disappointing return in The Betbright Chase at Kempton, he’ll have benefitted from it after a long layoff. Can’t see why he shouldn’t be in there pitching at the business end this time around either.

Ahead of Ruben Cotter in last years renewal were Fairy Rath, and Rathlin. I’d be happy to put a line through Fairy Rath’s run last weekend at Kempton, and he went there off the back of a win, that got himself nicely on to the same mark he ran off in this last year. This has surely been the plan all season, and if in the same form as last year, then no surprise to see him go well. Rathlin has changed hands since last years race, having moved from Mouse Morris to Micky Hammond. Now 11, and entitled to maybe not be as quick as he once was, he’ll nonetheless, be coming here off of 138, having finished 3rd off of 147 last year. Was a very decent run that day, and he jumped round again in December in The Grand Sefton. Just over a year since he was running against the likes of Don Cossack in Ireland, and though you’d expect a bit of regression, Gigginstown wouldn’t have sold him lightly, that swing in the weights must give him some sort of a chance. He’ll come here in decent form as well, having won last time.

It’s unlikely that Gigginstown will have any representatives in the race this year, with Killer Crow having ran unplaced in The Irish National, and Empire of Dirt & Sir Des Champs surely having other options. The then trainer of Rathlin, Mouse Morris, fresh from Irish National glory, does look to have a realistic contender, in the shape of Dromnea. In decent form last winter, he’s continued that trend this winter, and despite not getting his head in front, he’s ran a few respectable races. He’s been mainly taking in the bigger staying chases this season, The Troytown, The Paddy Power, and The Classic Chase. To be honest, he never looked like taking a serious hand in either of those races, but he might just be worth considering at this shorter trip. He ran a cracker just behind Rossvoss at this trip at Punchestown, and with connections always keen to take in these races over The National Fences, at 25’s, I reckon he provides decent EW Ante-Post value. Be very surprised if he doesn’t go, and could easily see a big race double for the trainer.

Plenty of other potential challengers from Ireland, with Willie Mullins throwing a few in. Ballycasey is surely National bound, along with Sir Des Champs, whilst Turban, who fell in this last year, is risky just now as the big one may also be on his agenda. Blood Cotil was very disappointing last time, and hard to fancy off of that run. Tennis Cap is a horse I’ve a lot of time for, and he was a decent winner last time out. He was a late withdrawal from The Irish National, and this race in my opinion represents a more realistic target. Looks an interesting runner, as do, in the same ownership, Alelchi Inois & Urano. Prolific a couple of winters back, Alelchi seems to have been kept under wraps over the winter, and let loose on this spring ground, his 6th in last summers Galway Plate would put him firmly in the picture here. Very much like Dromnea, Urano has taken in a few of the bigger staying chases this winter, and it’s not that long ago he was looking menacing in The Hennessy, before appearing to run out of gas. He’s been stepped back down in trip though lately, and warmed up for Cheltenham with a win over hurdles at Clonmel, in a weak enough affair, before taking in The Martin Pipe. He had no luck in running that day, but was clearly ready for a big run, and he caught the eye, running on very well at the end. Both he, and Alelchi are very easy to make a case for here, and both at very backable prices, Urano 33’s, Alelchi 25’s.

Also from Ireland,Dare To Endeavour ran a cracker in The Becher, and he’ll have to settle for a repeat bid over the fences in this race, with him having little to no chance of getting in The National. Versatile, with regards to both trip and ground, there’s no reason to suggest he can’t go well round here again, and he’s only a pound higher for that spin in The Becher. Just as versatile, is the Arthur Moore trained Pass The Hat. For a horse who hasn’t won for some time, I still always manage to have a good word for him. When taking in the bigger prizes, he usually seems to run his race without, obviously, getting his head in front. He’s got plenty of decent runs in the locker to give him a squeak here, though very much one for on the day purposes, rather than Ante-Post, as he seems to regularly get entries for big races, without actually turning up. If he does turn up here, take note. Bless The Wings & Living Next Door both took in The Irish National, with varying degrees of success. Neither could be considered definite runners here after that, but it was a fine second by Bless The Wings, and he’d be popular if he turned up in this. Living Next Door though, ran another shocker, and would be debatable whether he made the crossing anyway. If he did, surely The National would be his preference. Lyreen Legend is a very interesting candidate. Only 2 years since he looked like taking a hand in the finish of The Gold Cup, he then had a good spell on the sidelines. He’s had a quiet enough comeback, with a spin over hurdles, before running well for a long way behind Bonny Kate, who, admittedly, hardly franked the form in The Irish National. I just think though, that over this trip, he’s worth considering at the 40’s. He’s always threatened to take a decent prize, and the fact that they’ve kept him in training says a lot. I had a shortlist of horses I wanted to see head here before the entries were published, and one of them was Buckers Bridge. Like Lyreen, he had a spell on the sidelines, but he jumped round here well in The National 2 years ago, and ran a very encouraging race on his comeback, behind Fine Rightly at Navan. He didn’t do too much wrong next time either, behind My Murphy in The Thyestes, and that race, arguably, wouldn’t have played to his strengths. I suppose I would have liked to have seen a bit more from him in The Plate at Cheltenham, and that run has indeed tempered my enthusiasm a little, but the talent is there, and no surprise at all to see him bounce back here, in a race which is sure to suit.

On that early shortlist, along with Buckers Bridge, was the Sue Smith trained Mr Moonshine. He got me a decent return round here when placing in The Becher a couple of years back, but that was nothing compared to the pay day he gave me last month at Haydock. He owes me nothing, but important to mention those returns, as there’s always the potential that the heart could be ruling the head, but I am really keen on him for this. A regular round here, having found the trip too much a couple of times in The National, and he he was also less impressive in his return to The Becher last year. Happy to forgive him that though, as he seemed woefully out of sorts last year, and perhaps significantly, that Haydock win was off the back of a year on the sidelines. He’s since had a spin over fences, at a trip just beyond his optimum at Carlisle, and he seemed to remain in good form. This looks perfect for him, and though obviously vulnerable to younger legs, he looks the type to have realistic chances of making the 5, so I might gamble that his price holds. He’s currently 40’s, and take advantage of the 5 place concession nearer the time.

Current market leader is the Philip Hobbs trained Village Vic, and he’s proving very popular. He’s been a good horse to me this season, and was a very strong fancy for me in The Ryanair, before the big guns arrived, and the whole complexion of the race changed. In the end, he ran a very respectable race, though no surprise to see him come up short. He’d be some sight out in front here, though with a big weight to carry round, there’s just the suspicion that he’ll get mugged near the end by a few better handicapped horses. Big fan of the horse though, and could see him really taking to this and putting in a bold show. Hobbs also has Al Alfa entered, who on the face of it, might have just too much to do here. Very disappointing last time at Exeter, though he did notch a couple of wins last summer, including a win over Witness In Court at Market Rasen.

Witness In Court is another regular round here, and having ran well for a long way in last years Topham, he eventually got rid of his rider, a fate which also met him in this years Grand Sefton. He finished down the field in The Grand Sefton the year before, so he can actually get himself round here. If in the same form as when he was lobbing away in The Topham, you’d give him a chance off a trouble free round. After a difficult season, he’d be a welcome winner for Donald McCain, and he’s got a further trio entered, in the shape of Corrin Wood, Katachenko, and Ubaltique. Ubaltique, in the same ownership as Witness In Court, might find this miles away from what he’s used to, and bar a handicap hurdle here 2 years ago, normally seems to take in very small fields. Whether that’s by design I don’t know, but as likeable as he is, there might just be too much going on for him here, and in his most recent run, he capitulated very quickly. Katachenko fluffed his lines at Carlisle last time when a warm order, and though a solid enough conveyance, I’d have to pass him over here. Corrin Wood is a very different sort from his stablemates, and I was very much of the opinion that he was rapidly regressing. Having been a very promising novice 2 years ago, considered good enough for The RSA, he seemed to have lost the plot since then. Pulled up very early in The National last year, after a jolting mistake, he continued to show nothing this season…..until The Kim Muir. That race is a very competitive handicap at The Festival, and he showed up well for a good bit, before eventually tiring. Not surprisingly, he’s came down a whopping 21 lbs since his heyday, and though maybe pushing it for win purposes, over this shorter trip I could see him surprising a few. Certainly doesn’t deserve to be the rank outsider, which he currently is, not off the back of that Cheltenham run.

Martin Pipe managed to land this a couple of times, though his son David, has so far failed to emulate him. I’m a bit surprised that he only sends one here, though that may be a tip in itself, and La Vaticane does look to have some decent claims. Only found Theinval too good on his British debut, and that horse went on to cement the form at this meeting last year. After a relatively low key start to his fencing career, he showed himself to be in good form, with a bloodless victory at Wincanton last time. Ok, not the strongest field, but you couldn’t fail to be impressed by how he done it, and the rise in the weights seems fair. Hard to rule out.

It may also be significant that the only entry from the Venetia Williams stable, is her Grand Sefton winner, Bennys Mist. He was very impressive that day, and he’s remained in decent form since then, and nothing wrong with his second to Sametegal last time at Newbury. I don’t think he was unduly punished for that win in December, and despite an unseat in this last year, he’s normally a safe enough conveyance, and no surprise at all to see him better his second to Ma Filleule in this 2 years ago. Solid chance.

Behind Bennys Mist here in that Grand Sefton were Seventh Sky, and Distime. Both were beaten comfortably enough in the end, but at the same time, did enough to suggest they deserve another bash round here. Seventh Sky’s been plying his trade in decent company this season, and with his best runs seemingly just short of the 3 miles, then I’d expect a decent spin from him returning to this shorter trip. He’s not one I’d be in a rush to write off. Distime, despite his 3rd in that Grand Sefton isn’t as easy to fancy, though like Seventh Sky, you’d expect the return to the shorter trip to suit him. Hasn’t quite fulfilled his early promise, having once ran Unioniste very close, and that 3rd to Bennys Mist is probably his highlight in recent times, so just struggling to be overly confident about his chances.

Eastlake was third in this 2 years for the Jonjo/JP team, and I thought he would go on from that, but bar travelling nicely in a race at Ascot last winter, he’s been something of a disappointment. I almost bet him for The Grand Annual, but in a moment of clarity, I swerved him. He did, to be fair run ok in that race, and did get hampered down the back. I’ve no doubt he’ll come good, and it might as well be here as anywhere, but one of his disappointing runs was in this last year, and he’s hard to be enthusiastic about. Jonjo’s other entry, Gray Hession is a little more appealing. He won 3 on the bounce last year, before he went to Market Rasen, and maybe found the rise in the weights a step too far, eventually finishing 4th, with the decent Oscar Rock in front of him. Considered worthy of an entry for The National, he’s been dropped 3lbs, and the expected spring ground should be in his favour. I’d definitely favour him of the Jonjo pair.

Rebecca Curtis has had a difficult season, and it’s hard to see either Audacious Plan or Monkey Kingdom turn it around. Monkey Kingdom was an easy winner of a weak Novice event at Warwick last year, and got the better of a decent yardstick, Champagne West in his younger days, but overall, his form doesn’t look strong enough. Audacious Plan certainly looks the stronger of the two, and despite falling at The Festival, his 4th to What’s Happening at Cheltenham was a very decent effort, as was his run (for a while) behind Drop Out Joe at Chepstow. He’s got possibilities I suppose, with a few other half decent runs to his name, but supporters will be hoping this drop back in trip can bring a change in fortune.

On the face of it, Baileys Concerto should be up against it, but I find it difficult to completely rule him out. He’s been all over the place. His most notable run in recent times was his excellent second to If In Doubt in last years Skybet, but since then, you name it, he’s ran in it. He’s been over this trip, ran over hurdles, ran on the flat, and ran over 3 miles plus, including in a Veterans Chase last time. Indeed his run in that Veterans last time, not far behind Saint Are, was half decent. Who knows?

“Who Knows” would also apply to Croco Bay. He’s another who’s taken in both Fences and Hurdles of late, mainly around the 2 miles mark, and often in very strong company. Fell at the water in The Grand Annual, after being a very good third in it last year, and he was travelling smoothly when he departed this time. He looks on a fair enough mark, but there’s a fair question mark around the trip, so unsure what to expect. Decent enough horse though, so we’ll see.

One horse who took in that Grand Annual, and is impossible to ignore, is Savello. Turning for home, he looked very much like the winner. Very good horse in his time, and had won that race at The Festival 2 years earlier. He’s another who’s been mixing Fences and Hurdles, often in the best of company, and with the yard in decent enough form, then I’d be very keen on him. His 8th in last years Galway Plate, is the type of run that shows he can handle the hustle and bustle of this. Looks massively overpriced at 25’s. Despite the stable form, I’m struggling to make a case for Pumped Up Kicks.

On the face of it, the Kim Bailey trained Gallery Exhibition, doesn’t jump off the page here, but I always give his runners in handicaps here a second look, and I don’t think he’s a totally lost cause. Ran a solid enough race behind Roc D’Apsis at Kempton in January, and that horse did the form no harm at all, running a sound race in The Betbright Chase at the same track. That would appear to be probably his best run recently, so not inconceivable that he could come here and acquit himself well. I certainly think that his is ideal trip.

Voix D’Eau is an interesting contender from the Harry Fry yard. He went into my notebook last year, as a horse who could be a progressive sort, and interesting that they appear to have kept him under wraps. In all honesty, a race like this wasn’t what I had in mind for him, but I’ve seen more than enough to give him a chance here. Despite his relative inexperience, no surprise to see him as low as 14’s in places.

I’ve bet the Charlie Longsdon trained Grandads Horse a couple of times this winter, and I think he’s a going to pop up soon. No excuses in The Kim Muir last time, but his run before, when second to Saint Are, was very encouraging. He was ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen last time, and should neither of his Dad’s horses make the line up, then it would be very interesting to see if they re-united the partnership round here. Maybe clutching at straws, but with Anquetta seemingly regressing, and Warne more likely for The Foxhunter, then you never know. He’s 40’s just now, if Waley-Cohen rides, he will not be 40’s on the day.

Indian Castle finished ahead of Grandads Horse in The Kim Muir, and that was a sound enough run. Easily his best run for a while, and despite mainly being seen over 3 miles+ in recent times, I think this is more his trip, and he looks on a very nice mark. He could just surprise.

I thought Gullibursti ran well enough on his comeback from injury at Ascot, before the weight of some of my cash on him, proved too much of a burden in The Skybet. This will be a million miles from the conditions he faced at Doncaster that day, and if retaining enough of his ability, which I think he does, then he’s been given a massive chance by the handicapper. Known more as a 3 miler, I reckon this trip is ideal for him, and if he does line up, he looks “chucked in”.

Coming here off the back of a fall is far from ideal, and with not much recent form to enthuse about, then I’m happy to discount The Italian Yob. Top Cat Henry would come here with a much better prep, having won last time, but even then, his overall form doesn’t look quite strong enough for National winning trainer, Dr Newland. Rouge Et Blanc also from the yard of a Grand National winning trainer, Oliver Sherwood, is a horse I’ve backed a few times in the past. I think he’s just short of what’s required here, though he did jump nicely enough in The Foxhunter last year, having met all sort of trouble on the way round. Should give a good account of himself again, and certainly nothing wrong with victory over Mon Successeur earlier in the season.

Bishop Road, Third Intention, and Present View all hold entries for The National, so surely can’t be considered at this stage, with Bishop Road in particular looking more suited to the big one. Third Intention is an admirable horse, and rarely runs a bad race. I’d have slight preference for him in this, but he’s surely weighted out of it. He really does need to come down a couple of pounds. I wouldn’t be too worried about the run of Present View at Southwell today, as that was surely just a sharpener for Aintree, but there’s always been the suspicion anyway, that he’s just a tad high in the weights, following a rather fortuitous win at The Festival 2 years ago.

It’s not really advisable for me to get heavily involved in this at the best of times, never mind before the 5 day decs, considering my record in it, but I’m keen to take have a look.

Plenty of live ones from the big yards, including Alelchi Inois & Urano from The Mullins Stable. Savello also looks overpriced, but from the 64 entered, these 4 make the most appeal at the moment.

Captain Conan (if he goes) 40’s
Fago 25’s
Dromnea 25’s
Mr Moonshine (final decs) 40’s

There you go, easy

GL