Lavazza Silver Cup 2016

Takes place on Saturday 17th December at Ascot. Been known in various guises over the years, and after being in the doldrums for a while, is quickly becoming a very hot handicap each year.

Admittedly, it’s maybe not the best time to dissect another big race, but with so much to choose from tomorrow, and with many of these holding entries for both this weekend, and Cheltenham next week, now might be the time to steal a price, should there be one that catches your eye. Paddy Power, Bet365, and Sportsbook have it priced up already, and there’s some nice prices on offer. With those multiple entries though, many of these, at this stage anyway, come with obvious risks.

It’s just as risky taking a price with only one firm offering odds. It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve dived in, only to see better on offer once priced up elsewhere, but there’s some juice in some of these prices, and I’m not waiting.

Heading the market is the Harry Fry trained Thomas Brown, and though coming off the back of a win, and being a decent animal, I’m just a bit surprised to see him head the market. I don’t think that last win will read too well as the season goes on, and I’m not entirely convinced he likes these big competitive handicaps, as could be seen when he quickly downed tools in The Betbright at Kempton last year. Yes, he’s fairly solid, but just not my idea of the favourite, and I’d question whether or not the 9’s represents that much value at this early stage. I don’t have to look too far though to find one I do think is value, and it’s his stablemate, Fletchers Flyer. He rounded off a very solid campaign last year, with a thumping victory at The Punchestown Festival, and he was always going to be of interest when he made his seasonal re-appearance. Even a quick glance through his form gives plenty to like, and he really does have the look of a horse who’s been laid out for this. Could easily be Aintree bound this year, and a win here, wouldn’t result in too prohibitive a mark for that prize. A strong fancy at the generous 16’s. Henryville also gets an entry from the yard, and although a case could be made for him being well handicapped, he’s got to take advantage of that slipping mark soon. For a horse who promised so much, he hasn’t really delivered, and we should know more about his chance after tomorrows Grand Sefton.

Venetia Williams nearly won this 2 years ago with Houblon Des Obeaux, and he is part of a strong team from the yard this time around. After his Newbury romp in February, he’s quickly been given some respite by the handicapper, and is back down 5lbs, which is 8 lbs lower than that 2014 Renewal. He makes plenty of appeal, and he can boast plenty of form round here, though this hasn’t went unnoticed, and he’s not far off favouritism, at 12’s. That seems fair. The only drawback with him is that he failed to fire off an even lower mark in this last year, and try as I might (he had my cash on him), I just couldn’t find a decent excuse for that poor run. It’s highly likely his season will revolve around one target, considering his current mark, and who knows whether it’s here or not. I’m a big fan of Otago Trail, and he’s one of my big hopes for this season. He won The Rehearsal Chase last week in very good style, and there’s surely more to come. I won’t be parting with any cash just now, as I’m not convinced he’ll head here, but if he does he’s a player, and he’ll have to be, to justify his entry in The Lexus. This trip may just be getting Tenor Nivernais out of his comfort zone, but on his day, he’s more than capable. Just the worry though, that he’s becoming something of a “nearly” horse, and I think he has a more realistic chance in The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup. Her quintet is completed by Yala Enki, and Waldorf Salad. Yala Enki, for all intents and purposes, is basically a hurdler on these shores, but he’s not entered just for the hell of it, and though I couldn’t possibly be having him on side, he’s nonetheless an intriguing entry. I’ve bet Waldorf Salad for The Welsh National, but that doesn’t stop me casting an eye over him for this. I think he could be fairly decent, and expect him to go well up the ratings this season. He’ll need bags of improvement, but not beyond him, and the 40’s looks too big to me.

Another horse I’ve bet for The Welsh National, but available at 50’s here, is Another Hero. His seasonal debut looked the perfect prep for the Chepstow Marathon, though this is a serious pot in it’s own right, and for a horse who I suspect to be seriously well handicapped, he’s another who I’ll cover at a very big 50’s. He forms part of a very big entry from the Jonjo yard. After another lifeless display, this time in The Hennessy, Holywell could get another chance, but I’ll not be paying too much attention to him until around 1450 on Tuesday 14th March. Go Conquer looks a nice progressive sort, having warmed up for this with a nice prep round here the other week, and he’s considered, but if he were mine, the priority would be The Caspian Caviar. As well as Another Hero, Jonjo has 3 others in the line up who could represent JP McManus. Shutthefrontdoor was a surprise absentee from The Becher Chase, and it’s about time he won again. His prep run alongside Holywell didn’t suggest an immediate target for the season, a theory certainly endorsed by Holwywell’s run in The Hennessy, but STFD does seem to struggle with the 4 miles + at Aintree, and this drop in trip will certainly appeal for a horse who is slowly getting back to a very workable mark. The other two who could represent Jonjo in the green and gold hoops are More Of That, and Minella Rocco. Jonjo is a huge fan of More of That, but he was at a loss to explain his poor show in The BetVictor, and until his wellbeing is confirmed, then despite being arguably the best in the race, he can’t be bet here. We’ll have a fair idea after The Peterborough Chase on Sunday. Minella Rocco is another horse I’m a big fan of, and though The National looks the ideal, and obvious target (has Welsh National entry), I’ve actually bet him for The Gold Cup. He could have a big season ahead of him, though I’m not that convinced this race is ideal for him, and besides, he runs in The “Lotto” chase at Aintree tomorrow, and that will surely be his only run in the immediate future.

Regal Encore is in there as well for JP, but even as an outsider in the race, he ran badly in The Hennessy, pulling up abruptly.

Neil Mulholland landed this 2 years ago with The Young Master, and he could be doubly represented here by Doing Fine, and The Druids Nephew. The Druids Nephew, after his Cheltenham Festival heroics, had a season to forget last term, and has become something of a forgotten horse. To be fair to him, the run over Hurdles at Wetherby didn’t seem to work, and this was followed with a lacklustre round of jumping at Cheltenham. His jumping failed to impress in The National either, though he really would have hated that ground. His last run though, in The Bet365 Gold Cup though, was a step in the right direction, finishing 5th, and that offers some encouragement, as does the fact that he’s slipped down the weights, to not far off his last winning mark. A very interesting entry, and he’s on the shortlist at 20’s. Doing Fine is hard to recommend in this company, and hasn’t been at the yard long, having made the switch recently from the Rebecca Curtis yard. He is though, well fancied for The London National tomorrow, so we’ll have a fair idea then of how he is for the switch of yards.

Curtis herself has a couple in there, in the shape of Irish Cavalier, and Relentless Dreamer. Relentless Dreamer is a model of consistency, and climbing the weights nicely, but it would have to be taken on trust that he’ll cope with the rise into this company. He has won some competitive enough races though, and if he doesn’t land this, he still remains one to keep note of for future targets. Irish Cavalier is the more established of her 2, and is a real favourite of mine. He’s a Cheltenham & Punchestown Festival winner, and Charlie Hall winner too, so his chances would be obvious. I’d think he’s very ground dependent though, and always risky from a punting view for any race which is a fortnight away. He takes in a hot race at Aintree tomorrow, and I think that having been busy so far this season, he might not make it here.

Philip Hobbs also has a couple entered here, the Whateley pair, Menorah, and Sausalito Sunrise. Menorah needs no introduction, and has been an admirable sort for connections, but you’d have to think he’d be vulnerable to younger legs in a race like this. Sausalito however, looks still to have plenty to offer. He’s high up the weights, but deserves to be, and ran well for a long way at Cheltenham last time, lumping a big weight in a very hot handicap. Interesting contender, and worth remembering he was only ruled out of The Gold Cup shortly before the race last season.

Colin Tizzard, who’s got into a nice habit so far this season with the big Saturday prizes, has Fourth Act, as his sole representative. Not one of the stable “big guns”, but he’s got 2 solid runs in already this season, including here behind Antony, and perhaps significant that he remains on the same mark. It’s interesting, to me anyway, that having looked a cert to get a Becher & Welsh National entry, it’s this race instead that would appear to be the target. The 20’s is a big Each Way price, and anyone who likes the idea of him for this, would be advised to get in quick, I don’t think that price will last.

Like Tizzard, Alan King has only the one entry, and considering the ammunition at his disposal, could this be signficant. Annacotty certainly doesn’t jump off the page to me in this, though he didn’t jump out either when landing The Paddy Power Gold Cup last year. I do think he needs to drop a few pounds, and never been convinced at him over this kind of trip, but trainer seems to think he’ll be ok, and he holds an entry for The Welsh National.

Also with just the one entry are Warren Greatrex, Johnny Farrelly, Nicky Richards, Donald McCain, Peter Bowen, and Patrick Neville, who has the sole Irish entry, in Rightville Boy. Despite being the outsider of the field, I find this a tad harsh on Rightville Boy, his runs in the Kerry and Munster Nationals certainly show that he would handle the hustle and bustle of something like this, and I’d be in no rush to write him off. Greatrex has joint second favourite Aloomomo, though I just feel that this is a precautionary entry, should things not go according to plan in The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup. Like Thomas Brown, I’m a little surprised to see him as prominent in the betting. Donald McCain’s Knock House swerves a couple of engagements at Sandown tomorrow, and was also scratched from The Becher, so this could be the plan for him, and he’s one of the stars of the stable, after the yards difficult spell. He’s by no means out of this. Bowen & Farrelly are represented by Minella Daddy & Amore Alato respectively. Minella Daddy is by no means a household name, but like a couple of the yards already mentioned, Bowen has a few arrows he could have fired at this, but has stuck with the one. Minella Daddy looks the type that Bowen excels with, and he’s on an upward curve, and comes here in winning form. This is tougher, but he’s on a hat trick here, and further improvement can’t be ruled out. Amore Alato also comes here in winning form, though his win at Sandown doesn’t look the strongest, albeit he did it well. He should run his race, but doesn’t look the most obvious for win purposes. After missing last year, the Nicky Richards trained Eduard, finally made his comeback at Ascot last month. It was a quiet enough comeback, but he was entitled to come on for that, and his excellent run in the 2015 Ryanair is hard to forget. If Richards has him ready, he’s a big danger. He’s got a fair bit of class, and is another to hold an entry for The Lexus.

The rest of the entries are dominated by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, and David Pipe, accounting for 16 of the 45 entries.

Nicholls has only won this a couple of times, but he can rely on any one of Irish Saint, Le Mercurey, Present Man, Ruben Cotter, Saphir Du Rheu, Southfield Theatre, and Vibrato Valtat here. Le Mercurey goes to Aintree tomorrow, while Irish Saint looks another to have The Caspian Caviar as his main target, not to mention having an alternative engagement on this same card. One horse who has swerved Aintree, despite having what appeared to be very suitable engagements, is Ruben Cotter. Has bits and pieces of form which would bring him into this, and this is certainly his trip. Runs tomorrow at Chepstow, and he’s interesting, especially at this trip. Vibrato Valtat has the small matter of The Tingle Creek to contend with first, but Southfield Theatre, who is another with a big race target, namely The Welsh National, is horse to give a second look to. Last season was a write off, but the previous year he looked like a top notch handicapper, and would have won The Badger Ales last time out, but for coming down at the last. He looks one of the more likely Nicholls candidates, as does Present Man, who’ll be coming here, having won at the track a fortnight ago. Saphir Du Rheu has been taken out of The King George, having fell early doors in last weekends Hennessy. I don’t know if this is a serious plan, but despite his well documented Jumping issues, and potential temperament issues, a case can easily be made for him. He was another who had a dismal 2015/16 campaign, but his comeback run here in October was encouraging, if only encouraging. He remains well handicapped on his best form, and The Gold Cup would still appear to be the plan. Not convinced this will be the target for him, but having been ruled out of The Welsh National, as well as the Kempton Showpiece, then options may be limited. He is priced for this accordingly though at 10’s.

Henderson has what looks to be as strong an entry as Nicholls, in the shape of Cocktails at Dawn, Triolo D’Alene, Hadrians Approach, Volnay De Thaix, and Vyta Du Roc. Volnay appears to have The Peterborough Chase as his immediate priority, and also has the option of The Caspain Caviar, while Cocktails at Dawn takes in that “Lotto” Chase tomorrow, where a big run would bring him immediately into the picture for this. Triolo, Hadrians, and Vyta though, all took in last weeks Hennessy, and they all make serious appeal here. They all like the track, and just as importantly, seem well treated. I’m struggling to find too many negatives for them, but despite Vyta looking tailor made for The 3 Miler on Day 1 of The Festival, I’d maybe just give him preference here, and he’s a serious player.

David Pipe can rely on Ballynagour, Doctor Harper, Katkeau, and Un Temps Pour Tout. I rarely lay horses, but I did lay Un Temps Pour Tout when he flopped behind Native River at Aintree last season, as I think he doesn’t always put it all in. He did have a nice win over hurdles at Aintree this term, not to mention that Festival win last year, but he did look very well handicapped that day, but I just feel that the handicapper has him in his grip, as could be seen by his flop in The Hennessy. It’s unlikely that he’ll go the whole season without scoring again, but I’ll take the chance that it isn’t here. After looking back in form, Ballynagour ran abysmally in The BetVictor, and I didn’t hear any of any explanation for hat “run”. I’d have liked to hear one, as it was pretty woeful, and he had a few quid of mine on him. Hard to trust until his wellbeing is confirmed. Katkeau might be just short of this level, but he did show a good attitude at Uttoxeter last Spring, and he’s not entirely passed over. He fell at the first in The Rehearsal Chase last week, but he’s one to keep an eye on here, with Chepstow in mind. Doctor Harper interests me greatly. He travelled like a dream at Cheltenham last month, before appearing to run out of gas, and I just think he’s a very, very well handicapped horse. Who knows if this is the plan, and you can be assured there will be a plan. He already looks like a plot job for a couple of the handicaps at The Festival, but the 14’s here shows that Paddies aren’t taking any chances, and he is an obvious contender for this. He certainly looks the pick of the Pipe quartet.

An outstanding entry then, and plenty to chew over, both before, and after this weekends big races. Shutthefrontdoor could be laid out for this, but could equally be laid out for a prize later in the season, while anyone who likes Fourth Act, would be advised to get on early. Of the “up and comers”, then Minella Daddy is interesting.

Vyta Du Roc looks rock solid, and if I knew this was the plan, then the same sentiment would apply to Doctor Harper.

I’m reluctant to bet any, with only 3 firms pricing it up, but I just have to have Fletchers Flyer at the 16’s, and he’s my main fancy. Maybe stretching it for win purposes, but at 40’s and 50’s, then I’ll cover Waldorf Salad, and Another Hero, as having bet both for Chepstow, I’d kick myself should this turn out to be the main plan. Finally, The Druids Nephew. No money down yet, but he stands out to me at 20’s, even though he’s very ground dependent, and I might nick in and have a bit of that, should he “go blue”

GL