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Literally cannot wait for this race I was absolutely chuffed when I saw Thistlecrack was going to run, I absolutely love this horse. I’m not the biggest antepost punter but occasionally I get a bit of luck with it and I threw a few quid at Thistlecrack with betfair @14’s in October. Admittedly my bet is only very small stakes a few pounds e/w and a few straight win as it really was a gamble at that stage but I’m so glad to be getting a run for my money. I honestly think this horse is a machine and there will be no better way to prove it than beating the awesome Cue card. I love the fact that Collin Tizzard has allowed his best two horses to face off it’s brilliant for the game it’s just a shame we’ll never see that with some of the brilliant horses Willie Mullins has. I would love to think Thistlecrack could win this with ease but I’m sure it won’t be that straight forward. We may now get to see what he’s got in the locker in a battle which until this point is what we don’t know.
I think you will find the race will be totally **** ,I’m old enough to remember Borough Hill lad and Combs Ditch dawdling round in a three runner king George back in the 80’s ,its about time that once these races become uncompetitive they void them and plough the money into races that trainers actually want to run their horses .
I think you will find the race will be totally ****.
Its a fascinating race ‘Honeysdad’.I like many others want to see it run fairly and squarely and that should see Thistlecrack bowling along from the off,’Josses hill’ would hassle him for the lead if they knew he got the 3 miles but I reckon they will allow the Orange colours of Tizzards 2 to dictate.Paddy will settle Cue Card in last place so they have a good gap between the 2 big guns…We dont want any silly accidents.If the race goes to plan and ‘Silvi’ is back to his best he’ll still be there jumping 2 out,’Tea for Three’ should be feeling it by then but his ‘Feltham’ run of last year still gives him a shout.Going to the last both Tizzards big guns have to be off the bridle and racing but we all know one or the other could easily be cantering over their stable companion such is their quality…It will be totally **** if both fail though.
I am really disappointed tbh. When you think about some of the great KG we have seen in the past, and this year it is basically a 2 horse race. Personally I would love to see an upset but cannot see that happening. I think people are getting too carried away with Thistlecrack. He has been impressive over fences but far from faultless and even in a small field CC will put it to him. CC wins IMO
I am really disappointed tbh. When you think about some of the great KG we have seen in the past, and this year it is basically a 2 horse race. Personally I would love to see an upset but cannot see that happening. I think people are getting too carried away with Thistlecrack. He has been impressive over fences but far from faultless and even in a small field CC will put it to him. CC wins IMO
I like thistlecrack. I was trying to make an argument for tea for too given his record around kempton but he probably is just not good enough.
I think the lack of experience thing could be an issue but the small field will help in that respect. Cue Card yes, he’s a very good horse but he’s getting a bit long on the tooth now and don’t forget he’s been beaten in this race more often than he’s won it.
Ok you’re not getting a great price but a winner is a winner and if you pile enough on thistlecrack it’s a decent enough return.
Every race is fascinating. My weight adjusted predicted performance ratings for this one:
? = -10 to 20
Thistlecrack 197? Progressive & won World Hurdle easily earning 178, suspect could do 183. Most hurdlers who improve for chasing do so initially by about 10 and no reason he won’t improve for chasing so 193 before adjustment. Will go the pace no problem & could be interested in leading. It’s all about how his jumping holds up in his first competitive Chase, not only competitive but at the highest level. The trainer would not have run the horse (who has been given a gentle introduction to chasing where he has only had to record 164 in winning comfortably), he has had to defer to owner. So could be 10 to 20 below my rating depending upon the severity of any error/s. But has the leeway of about a stone in hand if jumping anywhere near adequately.
Cue Card 182. Would rate him at 187 if softer ground or if trip was 26f+. However, all out to do 180 on G to S in this last year so on what seems likely to be essentially Good I’ve marked him down a couple.
Silviniaco Conti 172. Possible front-runner. Would have needed reappearance (161) at same conditions (going/trip) and didn’t act first time encountering Heavy at Haydock. 168 is his best mark at 3 miles on Good. Easy to think he is on the downgrade but risky to assume that based on his 174 in last season’s Ascot Chase at a trip short of best (albeit in first time blinkers). But to do 168 needs not to have any of the myriad of niggles and problems that have affected him in the last couple of years, will give benefit of doubt.
Tea For Two 170. This the target, usually has just one per season. Grade & conditions fine. 161 in last year’s Kauto Star & can improve upon that by 5 based on improvement apparent comparing two slightly off-peak runs at virtually identical circumstances (20f, GS): 153 in last season’s Scilly Isles & 157 last time in Peterborough.
Josses Hill 169. Possible front-runner as it would be wrong to change the style that suits him so well because, having decided to take the plunge, of tentativeness regarding trip. 165 in Peterborough horse’s best run, is progressing. Fundamentally I believe he will not only stay 3 miles on Good but will improve 5 for the extra 4f to 170. I also think that as a horse he could possibly improve about a further 5, so 170 & possibly 175. However, looking at his previous performances in Grade 1 I’m of the opinion he gets found out and is exposed at the highest level (e.g. 155 in Ryanair compared to 161 in runs either side of it) so I would knock off 5 from the predicted 170 and rule out any possible improvement as a horse coming in Grade 1. Thus 165.
I think Thistlecrack has enough in hand that it’s worth hoping he will jump at least reasonably adequately so I backed him to Win. Price happens to be 11/8.
I think you will find the race will be totally **** ,I’m old enough to remember Borough Hill lad and Combs Ditch dawdling round in a three runner king George back in the 80’s ,its about time that once these races become uncompetitive they void them and plough the money into races that trainers actually want to run their horses .
Totally disagree, it’s a fascinating race and I can’t wait.
Now we will find out just how good Thistlecrack is. If he jumps well he could be anything. I would have gone down the Coneygree route this year but fair play to connections or taking Cue Card on.
CC just keeps on doing it and is the form pick. If it’s a searching gallop he still has questions to answer about his jumping.
Josses Hill won well in the Peterborough but the distance is the obvious worry.
I was impressed with the way Tea for two travelled in his seasonal opener despite travelling far too hard and the return to three miles should be of help.
I wouldn’t rule out Silvianaco Conti on much better ground than he encountered at Haydock. If anyone can bring him back it’s Nicholls.
As for who wins, I honestly don’t know. The sooner we get this Christmas nonsense out the way and find out the better.
Never have so many condemned one horse for so few errors. Time and again, almost everywhere I look I see ‘if Thistlecrack’s jumping holds up’
FACTS: he’s jumped 56 fences in public. He’s made one error. Despite Cue Card’s huge experience, he’s a better jumper than Cue Card who often finds his own way to fiddle himself over a fence. Josses Hill has impressed with his jumping this season, but in percentage terms, he’s made more errors than Cue Card. Tea For Two is a fair jumper and Silv Conti is generally very solid and reliable in his jumping. But Thistlecrack has the style and athleticism to be the best jumper in the field, especially if TS gives him a proper confident ride and ensures a good pace.
But has the leeway of about a stone in hand if jumping anywhere near adequately.
GoldenMiller, sorry i dont get this bit. What does Thistlecrack have a stone in hand on ?
Never have so many condemned one horse for so few errors. Time and again, almost everywhere I look I see ‘if Thistlecrack’s jumping holds up’
FACTS: he’s jumped 56 fences in public. He’s made one error. Despite Cue Card’s huge experience, he’s a better jumper than Cue Card who often finds his own way to fiddle himself over a fence. Josses Hill has impressed with his jumping this season, but in percentage terms, he’s made more errors than Cue Card. Tea For Two is a fair jumper and Silv Conti is generally very solid and reliable in his jumping. But Thistlecrack has the style and athleticism to be the best jumper in the field, especially if TS gives him a proper confident ride and ensures a good pace.
Bloody hell, they are all coming out the woodwork now. :)
Never have so many condemned one horse for so few errors. Time and again, almost everywhere I look I see ‘if Thistlecrack’s jumping holds up’
FACTS: he’s jumped 56 fences in public. He’s made one error. Despite Cue Card’s huge experience, he’s a better jumper than Cue Card who often finds his own way to fiddle himself over a fence. Josses Hill has impressed with his jumping this season, but in percentage terms, he’s made more errors than Cue Card. Tea For Two is a fair jumper and Silv Conti is generally very solid and reliable in his jumping. But Thistlecrack has the style and athleticism to be the best jumper in the field, especially if TS gives him a proper confident ride and ensures a good pace.
Bloody hell, they are all coming out the woodwork now.
Maybe but the attraction of Thistlecrack is that he’s unexposed.
For me the most relevant statistic is that the even money favourite is approaching 11, has ran in the race four times and only won once.
That says it all to me about which of the front two I’d rather back.
But has the leeway of about a stone in hand if jumping anywhere near adequately.
GoldenMiller, sorry i dont get this bit. What does Thistlecrack have a stone in hand on ?
Cue Card. I reckon Thistlecrack has the capability of running to a weight adjusted rating of 197 if putting in a faultless round of jumping whereas I predict Cue Card will run to a weight adjusted 182 at the conditions. I theorise, therefore, that Thistlecrack could make errors costing him 14 lengths and win by 1 length!
Never have so many condemned one horse for so few errors. Time and again, almost everywhere I look I see ‘if Thistlecrack’s jumping holds up’
FACTS: he’s jumped 56 fences in public. He’s made one error. Despite Cue Card’s huge experience, he’s a better jumper than Cue Card who often finds his own way to fiddle himself over a fence. Josses Hill has impressed with his jumping this season, but in percentage terms, he’s made more errors than Cue Card. Tea For Two is a fair jumper and Silv Conti is generally very solid and reliable in his jumping. But Thistlecrack has the style and athleticism to be the best jumper in the field, especially if TS gives him a proper confident ride and ensures a good pace.
I agree with most of that, Joe. But jumping a stride earlier than jockey intends is a jumping error, even if not hitting the fence. Thistlecrack has a jumping technique better than Cue Card, but fact is Thistlecrack has made errors at ditches whenever he’s not in front. Will he be able to front run?
I’ve got little doubt Thistlecrack will be one of the best of all time. However, Cue Card is a Timeform 180 horse. So Thistlecrack has to beat one of the best 20 horses of the last 50 years – on only his 4th start… And CC has produced that rating several times. If time hasn’t caught up with him in the last month, CC will be difficult to beat.
Value Is EverythingThat’s a dodgy classification of an error, Mark. We’ve both seen many a horse not come up to order, going either long or short – formbook would be riddled with them if that was the interpretation.
An error, to me, is something that impedes progress. Absolutely nothing wrong with a horse coming up a stride sooner than his jockey wants so long as the horse has the scope to carry it off. My sole concern for Monday is Scu not giving him a ballsy enough ride. If he sets out with the belief that he’s on the best horse and the best jumper, that should be all he needs, bar the avoidance of bad luck.
Woah, Thistlecrack is a fine animal and I think he may well win on Monday,but all this talk of a rating of 197 and being one of the greatest of all time is jumping the gun just a tad!
Kauto Star was only given a rating of 193 for winning the King George by a distance for gawds sake!
Hi guys,
Newbie here to this forum. Hoping to get some advice.
I’m wanting to back Thistlecrack in this race. Would you advise backing now at 11/8 or waiting till the day of the race?
Basically do you think the odds will drift or shorten?
Thanks in advance.
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