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Tends not to be a big betting race for me, but have taken a chance with Thistlecrack at the 12’s. I’ll no doubt go with an outsider in the lead up as well.
I took the 8/1 about Cue Card for this back in March and haven’t seen a horse to touch him since….Well that was until I saw Thistlecrack step forward again last Saturday,it might only have been a Novice chase but its the way he flew his fences and powered all the way round Newbury literally cantering.Ladbrokes go 10/1 now about your selection Bob and I have succumbed to it as he really is the only horse who could trouble his stable mate.I’ll win a nice grand if ‘Thistlecrack’ wins but only £800 if ‘Cue Card’ comes in.Should the pair jump the last together I’m afraid my voice will be hoarse cheering ‘My’ horse…(Joe)!!
Good luck Gord
As I said, not really a big betting race for me, one I like to sit and enjoy on Boxing Day, and I can assure you that if Thistlecrack does head here, I will not be winning a grand lol. I’ve only got a couple of quid on, and a few quid on the rags. It almost ruins it for me if one of my outsiders make it
I think your 8-1 Cue Card will be the bet you’ll be cheering on coming over the last, as despite his much impressive round at the weekend, I think Thistlecrack will go Feltham.
Entries out now…………..
Tends not to be a big betting race for me, but have taken a chance with Thistlecrack at the 12’s. I’ll no doubt go with an outsider in the lead up as well.
I took the 8/1 about Cue Card for this back in March and haven’t seen a horse to touch him since….Well that was until I saw Thistlecrack step forward again last Saturday,it might only have been a Novice chase but its the way he flew his fences and powered all the way round Newbury literally cantering.Ladbrokes go 10/1 now about your selection Bob and I have succumbed to it as he really is the only horse who could trouble his stable mate.I’ll win a nice grand if ‘Thistlecrack’ wins but only £800 if ‘Cue Card’ comes in.Should the pair jump the last together I’m afraid my voice will be hoarse cheering ‘My’ horse…(Joe)!!
I’d be hugely surprised if Thistlecrack runs in the KG over the Feltham.
He doesn’t need to give Thistlecrack such a test at this stage.
Entries out now…………..
Tends not to be a big betting race for me, but have taken a chance with Thistlecrack at the 12’s. I’ll no doubt go with an outsider in the lead up as well.
I took the 8/1 about Cue Card for this back in March and haven’t seen a horse to touch him since….Well that was until I saw Thistlecrack step forward again last Saturday,it might only have been a Novice chase but its the way he flew his fences and powered all the way round Newbury literally cantering.Ladbrokes go 10/1 now about your selection Bob and I have succumbed to it as he really is the only horse who could trouble his stable mate.I’ll win a nice grand if ‘Thistlecrack’ wins but only £800 if ‘Cue Card’ comes in.Should the pair jump the last together I’m afraid my voice will be hoarse cheering ‘My’ horse…(Joe)!!
I’d be hugely surprised if Thistlecrack runs in the KG over the Feltham.
He doesn’t need to give Thistlecrack such a test at this stage.
TAPK comes home to find a horse he really thinks is tailor-made for a race (‘Shutthefrontdoor,Becher chase) isn’t entered…That causes me heartache and when I get heartache I get my achy breaky heart up to Ladbrokes and plan another legendary coup.Those who study Human psychology will know exposure therapy is the cure to overcoming phobias and my phobia is related to Non-runners…I hand another £50 e/w over the counter and ask for the 10/1 about Thistlecrack winning the King George..Sorry says lady Cashier you can have 8/1..Well of course I took it because if this fellow does turn up in the King george he goes off 2/1 2nd fav behind the 5/4 fav Cue Card.I cant see any reason why the Tizzards wont take a King george 1,2…Mullins and O’Brien do it all the time.
Entries out now…………..
Tends not to be a big betting race for me, but have taken a chance with Thistlecrack at the 12’s. I’ll no doubt go with an outsider in the lead up as well.
I took the 8/1 about Cue Card for this back in March and haven’t seen a horse to touch him since….Well that was until I saw Thistlecrack step forward again last Saturday,it might only have been a Novice chase but its the way he flew his fences and powered all the way round Newbury literally cantering.Ladbrokes go 10/1 now about your selection Bob and I have succumbed to it as he really is the only horse who could trouble his stable mate.I’ll win a nice grand if ‘Thistlecrack’ wins but only £800 if ‘Cue Card’ comes in.Should the pair jump the last together I’m afraid my voice will be hoarse cheering ‘My’ horse…(Joe)!!
You’ve bottled it Gord.
If I had 8/1 Cue Card (who’s now 6/4) I wouldn’t be – in effect – halving my value/odds taken on Cue Card by backing something that’s a probable non-runner.Value Is EverythingMade a couple of mistakes at the weekend, but same connections have taken out Sadlers Risk, so at least I know they haven’t totally ruled Champagne West out of this. I’m hoping he can nab a place if he does go, the ability was certainly there in the past, so have topped up at 150’s each way with Hills.
Bobby, sadly trainer says in today’s RP that CW won’t run. Elliot says none of his 3 will run. Bradstocks are holding off, but if I’m reading between the lines accurately I suspect he has not come out of Haydock as well as they’d hoped.
Meade says Road to Riches has had an op for kissing spines and if all goes well he should be ready to run ‘at Christmas’ but he doesn’t know where.
Nicholls says if it looks a mega-hot race D Bullets and Silv Conti will probably miss it.
Twister “Blaklion and Bristol De Mai are most unlikely to run”
De Bromhead “We haven’t made a plan for Valseur Lido as to whether he will go to Kempton or stay at home maybe for the Lexus at Leopardstown. Sub Lieutenant is going for the John Durkan at Punchestown”
It’s beginning to look like a match between the Tizzard pair. Not sure about the trainer, but the owners are surely going to be very tempted in what looks like it might be the smallest KG field for a very long time.
I’ve just topped up on Thistlecrack at 15/2.
Getting a little tired of the present Tizzard mania. Hopefully, this is just the press pushing a story. I really didn’t think they would be stupid enough to even consider running Thistlecrack in the King George. Even with plenty of experience I wouldn’t have thought Kempton would be anything like his ideal track.
Entries out now…………..
Tends not to be a big betting race for me, but have taken a chance with Thistlecrack at the 12’s. I’ll no doubt go with an outsider in the lead up as well.
I took the 8/1 about Cue Card for this back in March and haven’t seen a horse to touch him since….Well that was until I saw Thistlecrack step forward again last Saturday,it might only have been a Novice chase but its the way he flew his fences and powered all the way round Newbury literally cantering.Ladbrokes go 10/1 now about your selection Bob and I have succumbed to it as he really is the only horse who could trouble his stable mate.I’ll win a nice grand if ‘Thistlecrack’ wins but only £800 if ‘Cue Card’ comes in.Should the pair jump the last together I’m afraid my voice will be hoarse cheering ‘My’ horse…(Joe)!!
You’ve bottled it Gord.
If I had 8/1 Cue Card (who’s now 6/4) I wouldn’t be – in effect – halving my value/odds taken on Cue Card by backing something that’s a probable non-runner.If Thistlecrack runs in this Ginge he’ll go off 2/1 at this rate,competition looks weaker by the day.If he does run and he was to beat my Cue card and I hadn’t backed him I would be looking at a £900 profit lost.If ‘Cue Card’ wins at 6/4 my 8/1 still shows a £700 profit so how you can suggest I’ve bottled it when I’ve actually shown a brilliant piece of Foresight surprises me.Even if ‘Thistlecrack’ doesn’t run my 8/1 ‘Cue Card’ still returns 7/1…Just remember I put both these horses up last March to win the Gold Cup at Cheltenham this season at double figure prices so I’m hardly going to desert them for this the perfect stepping stone for Gold Cup glory.’Thistlecrack’ will float round Kempton Stilvi whether its the ‘Feltham’ or the ‘King George’.
Even if ‘Thistlecrack’ doesn’t run my 8/1 ‘Cue Card’ still returns 7/1
How have you worked that one out Gord?
Your earlier claims make that impossible.
What are your stakes?
Value Is EverythingI know you like to forget about non-runner money lost Gord, but…
From your claims of profit I take it you’ve done:£100 @ 8/1 Cue Card
and
£100 @ 10/1 ThistlecrackMaking a profit of £700 if Cue Card wins and £900 if Thistlecrack wins.
Still excellent stuff.
But if Thistlecrack is a non-runner then you’ve staked £200 to win £700 @ in effect a price of 7/2.Value Is EverythingEven if ‘Thistlecrack’ doesn’t run my 8/1 ‘Cue Card’ still returns 7/1
How have you worked that one out Gord?
Your earlier claims make that impossible.
What are your stakes?
I’m responding to your response from the quote of mine you used.I have £100 win at 8/1 ‘Cue Card and £100 win ‘Thistlecrack’ at 10/1 so deducting the £200 stakes I will win £700 ‘Cue Card’ or £900 ‘Thistlecrack’..I understand your ‘Half the odds bet’ as to return those figures including stakes works out at £200 ‘Cue Card’ at 7/2…£200 to win £700 and 9/2 ‘Thistlecrack’ to win £900…I havent included the £50 e/w at 8/1 from another post on ‘Thistlecrack’ though.
Going by the plans of other trainers, I cannot see the logic in not running Thistlecrack. For a start, if Thistlecrack and Cue Card were declared a week before as intended runners then most of the others, as Nicholls has indicated with his, are going to go elsewhere – probably Ireland.
So what are we looking at 5 or 6 runners? Coneygree at worst and although the Bradstocks seem bullish on the face of it, I’m not so sure that’s quite how they feel Here’s what they said today:
We’re more likely to stay in England and go for the King George than go to Ireland. There’d have to be a reason to go to Ireland as you’d be adding in the travel and if we think he’s come on like we’re expecting him to and he can win the King George, we’ll run in it. If we think he needs a bit more time to come back to his peak we might go to Ireland, or if there was no rain and it was good to firm at Kempton. This week we’ll be getting him back to his full work and he came out of Haydock in very good form. He didn’t have a hard race as I don’t think he ever got into his proper cruising pace. We won’t make our minds up just yet, but if everything is even and he continues to please us we’ll go to Kempton. He needed to sharpen up and remember what it was all about at Haydock. I’m hopeful if we get into our proper rhythm we will blunt Cue Card’s speed. He has speed on us, but the point about Coneygree is he outgallops that speed. It may take a couple of runs to get to full pelt and that’s why we might go to Ireland, but the engine is still there.
So, what else? Tea For Two maybe and possibly Valseur Lido, and that’s about it going by trainer quotes. And if you had VL and had the prospect of a Lexus against the usual suspects or an overseas jaunt to face Thistlecrack and Cue Card, which would you choose?
I can’t see any way there’s going to be more than a handful of runners. If there are more, they’ll be no-hopers.
Now the owners will have a say in this, probably a very strong one. The Snooks own 4 horses. Two are duffers, one is rated 140, and Thistlecrack. He’s a mature horse, perhaps at or near his peak. He’s in blinding form and the yard will know the score at home with him and the favourite. He won’t face a large field and the only top class opponent is likely to be Cue Card. It’s not so much why would they run him as why wouldn’t they? The field for the Feltham might be bigger and his opponents’ jumping will probably be less polished than that of the seniors, increasing the chances of a BD.
Why wouldn’t they run in the KG? At 15/2 I think it’s very well worth taking the chance that he will.
BTW, I should add a caveat for those swayed by my previous post: this has been a lousy race for me, with Cue Card in 2013 and Vautour last year both set to win me substantial sums. I cannot recall the last time I backed the KG winner
Going by the plans of other trainers, I cannot see the logic in not running Thistlecrack.
Why wouldn’t they run in the KG? At 15/2 I think it’s very well worth taking the chance that he will.
My thoughts exactly Joe,he’s about 6/1 now mind and thats a positive too.I would much rather go to war with a 10/1 shot who will go off 2/1 and a 8/1 shot who will go off 6/4 than just one of them especially like you say in a field of less than 10 runners…If I was a Bookmaker I’d be going 2/1 ‘Thistlecrack’ with a run so all these big prices are worth taking,particularly e/w as he’d a cert for a place….If he does run.
BTW, I should add a caveat for those swayed by my previous post: this has been a lousy race for me, with Cue Card in 2013 and Vautour last year both set to win me substantial sums. I cannot recall the last time I backed the KG winner
Fear not pal TAPK considers your opinion.
If Thistlecrack runs in this Ginge he’ll go off 2/1 at this rate,
Think most people (including me) would agree with you Gord.
So why is he available @ 15/2 or even 6/1 generally?
Bookies aren’t daft.Answer: Likelihood of running.
Value Is Everything
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