Munster National 2016

Nice touch with this race being named after the late JT.

Obvious starting place for this years renewal is last months Kerry National, won by Wrath of Titans. He won that in good style in the end, and even allowing for a 9lb rise, he’s very, very difficult to leave out of things here. The crucial question for me as far as Wrath is concerned, is whether Aintree or Fairyhouse is the long term plan. He’s on a lovely mark for The Irish National, and could even allow for a couple of reverses as the season goes on, whereas he needs another big pot to make Aintree. I have a hunch that he’ll ultimately head to Fairyhouse, but regardless of that, it would be a brave man to write him off for this. Gordon Elliot has mapped out his campaign superbly so far, and he fully justifies his place at the head of the market.

Behind Wrath in second that day was Rightville Boy, who ran an absolute screamer at a price. Only the late surge of the winner denied him, and hit with only a 4lb rise, he should be more than competitive again, and somewhat surprised to see 20’s available. Lord Scoundrel was still in contention when he fell 2 out, though fresh from his Galway Plate success, it had the look of a tired fall, he was certainly beaten at the time, and it may just be that he’ll get competitive again, before the big weight finds him out. Nonetheless a very nice horse, and should find the winners enclosure again this year. Aurora Bell ran well for a long way, and is solid enough, but he’s always looked just short of the standard required for a prize like this, though I’d expect him, once again, to travel well for a long way at a price. Clarcam was further down the field, and though arguably one of the classiest horses in the list of entries, I just get the impression that he’d prefer shorter, and he looks the ideal type to pop up well handicapped at one of the spring festivals. In the same ownership, and both from the Gordon Elliot yard, Shadow Catcher pulled up, whilst Realt Mor fell. Both very decent horses, but Shadow Catcher, fresh from a big run at Galway, failed to build on that, and didn’t seem to have any excuses. Realt Mor looked the unlucky horse of the race, going ominously well, when coming down a few fences out, but he flopped next time out. He’d look the more likely of that pair, but both have questions to answer. Folsom Blue was probably the biggest disappointment of the race, being backed into 9-2 favourite, but he never really figured, and more worryingly, there didn’t seem to be any real excuse either. I described him as a bit “in and out” last time, and for that very reason he’s impossible to rule out here. For all his “no shows” he can also count on making the frame in The Paddy Power, The Irish National, and the big handicap at The Punchestown Festival, not to mention being in the process of running a big race, when being brought down in The Scottish National. No chance on his last run, but a leading contender based on last seasons form. Killer Crow was badly hampered, and his jockey went out the side door, but despite singing his praises a couple of times, overall, he’s just starting to get a bit frustrating. Shesaportrait blew her chance at the start, and never got competitive, showing distinct signs of temperament, and she’s risky off the back of that. She was, however, the subject of some serious money on the day of the race, and based on her run in The Kerry National last year, then connections might just have a live outsider on their hands, if she can keep it together. Aranhill Chief, fresh from another fine summer, found conditions, and probably his mark, too much, and he was midfield for most of the race, never landing a blow. He’s been dropped a few pounds, and though most of his best runs have been during the warmer months, we’re not in the depths of winter yet, and at 25’s, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran well above those odds. He’s been very good to me Aranhill, and though maybe not an obvious one for win purposes, he’ll certainly have a couple of sentimental quid of mine on each way.

At Galway in June, Aranhill found only the very impressive On Fiddlers Green too good, and though weighted to be closer, I get the feeling that Fiddlers is very much a horse on the up, and the 8lb rise shouldn’t be too prohibitive. I was hoping he’d be a bigger price, but that run hasn’t gone unnoticed, and 10’s is the best you can get. Trained by Henry De Bromhead who won this last year, he looks the pick of the stables entries, and is a serious contender. De Bromhead teams up with last years winning owner once again, with the pair represented by Stellar Notion. Very well touted at the start of last season when with Paul Nicholls, it didn’t really happen for him, and he’s not achieved that much, certainly not to justify odds of 10’s or 12’s for this. As well as his patchy form, he also has question marks round the trip to contend with, but there’s just the niggling hunch that he might have more to offer, and I just can’t rule him out, indeed the step up in trip might just be what he needs. Equally as hard to rule out is the JP owned, Elegant Statesman. A winner last time out, he looked like just the kind of horse who’ll become a regular in contests like this for JP, and he appears to have plenty to offer here. Making up the De Bromhead quartet is King of Brega, and despite being a winner here in the summer, he just looks the least likely of the 4 to follow in Sadlers Risks footsteps.

Also in the line up with Sadlers Risk last year, were the The Job Is Right, and Dare to Endeavour, and both had no chance at all, being badly hampered by a faller early doors, which effectively put them out of the race. The Job Is Right is a horse I know very well, and despite being a nice winner for me over hurdles last season, and getting place money in The Thyestes, he also took a few quid of mine with him in other runs. He can be a bit moody at times, but if on his game, he has plenty of runs in this type of event, which puts him bang in the picture. He made the frame in the 2014 Paddy Power, and that run in last seasons Thyestes, as well as unseating at the last in the 2015 renewal, having been the only real challenger to Djakadam, gives him a squeak. He hardly has an unblemished record over fences, but if his jumping holds out, and he’s in a good mood, then he could easily make the frame, especially with a “pipe opener” over hurdles under his belt. Dare to Endeavour will also come here after a run over hurdles, and at a trip short of his optimum that day, he was running on very well at the end. He fairly caught my eye during the race as well, and for a while he looked like the winner. That was enough for me, and he was the one who jumped out at me when the entries were released. Match fit then, and with connections possibly out for compensation for last years disappointment, then he’ll do for me at 20’s, and I’m hoping for a repeat of his outstanding effort in last seasons Becher Chase.

Dromnea, from the Mouse Morris yard is another fancy. He’s a horse who rarely runs a bad race, and in hindsight, The Topham, which he faced last time, might not have been ideal, and given his record in these types of races, again at 20’s, I’d be fairly confident he can make the frame.

Another horse who was near the top of my list was Pairofbrowneyes. I thought he looked as if he might have been laid out for this, before appearing last weekend, running a decent race behind Ballycasey. I wouldn’t be too concerned with him turning out quickly, as he ran 2 big races over 3 days at Punchestown this year. He found the winners enclosure more than once last season, and he’s been on my radar for a prize like this for a while, and he’ll continue to be throughout the season. If he does line up, I’ll probably regret not having an interest at 16’s.

As well as a good few already mentioned, Gigginstown are also represented by Tiger Roll & the last 2 Irish National winners Thunder and Roses, and Rogue Angel. Tiger Rolls’s been busy this summer, but only managed to get his head in front once, in a weak enough Novice Chase, and he’ll have to step up his game here. He does though, have a bit of ability, having formerly won The Triumph (admittedly a million miles from this) and I just get the impression he’ll be heading to Aintree, should he get a win under his belt this year. Rogue Angel definitely has Aintree in his sights, though whether or not they’d want to blow his mark here, remains debatable. Whatever the immediate plan is, he looked a rejuvenated character last year. Thunder and Roses seemed to pay the price last season for his Fairyhouse win, though his run at Punchestown at The Festival was a lot more like it, and I think his chances would be improved by being re-united with Katie Walsh. I haven’t totally ruled him out for this this, and I’ll be watching him closely this season.

Tulsa Jack might just pay the price for his Kilbeggan romp in June, where he won easily, and he’s shot up the weights, but I wouldn’t be in as big a rush to write off Kylecrue, who’s also going up the weights. Having won 2 on the bounce, I don’t think he’s reached his ceiling yet. He certainly doesn’t look harshly treated for his last win, and if I could just trust him over this trip, then I’d be very strong on him. I’ve made a few quid off him in the past, laying in running, and I would have had an interest in that angle this time, but his continued good form has seen his odds, not surprisingly, become a lot skinnier than I’m used to.

Federici has seen some market support over the last 24 hours, but he wasn’t the first I looked at myself, and despite that interest in him, he’d be a surprise winner for me, for all he won a couple of times last year. I just think the line up here will be tougher than what he faced for those 2 wins.

Apache Jack looks woefully out of form, and might struggle to get in anyway, along with the JP trio, Hash Brown, Riverside City, and Tom Horn, who are way down the bottom, along with Thomond.

I’d be very worried then about On Fiddlers Green, and 2 of his stablemates, as well as Pairofbrowneyes, and Thunder and Roses, should Katie Walsh get the gig.

Dare to Endeavour would be my #1 hope then, along with Wrath of Titans, and with me on Wrath for Aintree at big prices, I’m happy to leave him here, with him at the head of the market. Should he drift from the 5’s, 6’s then I’ll definitely reconsider. The 20’s for Dare to Endeavour was a lot more appealing, and a repeat of his run last time out, and his Becher Chase run last season will do me just fine. He might just fail to make the cut, but happy to have Dromnea at the 20’s as well, I think he’s good each way value.

GL