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The New One – ran to about 168. Had expected 163 but new tactics & new bit helped revitalise. On similar ground could hit 170 which is close to his best so worth sticking to 2 mile Hurdles for now & see what happens.
My Tent Or Yours – 157. Not knocked about once beaten but ought to have been capable of better, even on Soft (judged on several past runs and because it was wet, sloppy Soft not holding), so the going is not a full excuse. After the long injury absence came back to run 167 in the CH. Subsequent runs: 160, 159, 144 & now 157. Hard to escape the conclusion that the game effort at the highest level last March on return has taken a toll on the horse. Even on better ground I would find it hard to predict the horse could do better than low 160s.
Old Guard – 152. Exactly as I expected, 5 short of his best rating (same race, similar going last year) because horse not in the same form yet this year due to unhappy try at Chasing & encountering hated Heavy (PU only other run on it) at Haydock. Will do 157 next time, for what its worth.
The new one hasn’t run to anything near 168, he never has and certainly never will now. The new one yesterday was running against a crap field which is why he looked better. He ran to his rating of 158, mtoy ran to 150 and old guard ran to 143. Mtoy ran to about 162 in last years champion hurdle and has run significantly worse every day since then with his two performances this season at in my opinion 148 and 150 respectively and the new one had everything going his way yesterday to beat him.
We are talking about too horses who continually flatter to deceive. They seem to be fancied for every big race but continually do nothing in a proper decent field. The 2 miles hurdle division in the UK is in tatters at the moment and backing either of these horses to win championship races is a fast lane to poverty. Forget about mtoy coming second to Annie in Cheltenham. The only horse of note that he beat home was Nichols canyon who was clearly not right after his battle with identity thief. Annie power was able to trounce that field having only her second start of the season and her first start in open 2 mile race. That just shows how bad the champion hurdle of last year was.
Don’t back tno or mtoy for any grade one race or you’ll be poor
Surely if you give MTOY and TNO chances in the CH then Ch’Tibello must have a squeak, its not the way I look at things but he beat MTOY further than TNO. Ch’Tibello is entered up for a grade 3 HH next weekend at Ascot against Hargam and others.
The wexford man is right, the current crop are a bunch of handicappers. A good 2 miler who popped on the scene at the moment would appear like the second coming. Any good Novices about would have a field day.
I think people are giving that warm-up run at Haydock way too much respect. Heavy ground, they went a dawdle, they sprinted, connections were hardly gonna tell the jockey to win at any cost.
Binocular got beat into 3rd in the Fighting Fifth in 2010, finishing 3rd, 6L behind Starluck. Would you have been giving Starluck a shout for the CH as well?
Zarkava your not comparing like with like. Binocular was a 5yr old on the up in the race you refer to, where as mtoy is an older horse on the decline
I think people are giving that warm-up run at Haydock way too much respect. Heavy ground, they went a dawdle, they sprinted, connections were hardly gonna tell the jockey to win at any cost.
Binocular got beat into 3rd in the Fighting Fifth in 2010, finishing 3rd, 6L behind Starluck. Would you have been giving Starluck a shout for the CH as well?
Zark, my respose was a general one to the views posted that MTOU and TNO are champion hurdle material. IF you look Very Early On i said “its not the way I look at things”
Fair enough, I understand where you’re coming from, but I think people are being way too harsh on a horse who’s finished in the top 3 on every start, turned up after 2 years off to finish 2nd in the Champion Hurdle (which looks like being a much worse race, depth wise, this year), placed in a Supreme + another Champion Hurdle. He’s just a bit of a dog when it comes to winning. Having said that, TNO had his absolute ideal conditions here.
I still think MTOY has a blinding chance of being placed in the Champion Hurdle again, although him winning it is a bit of an ask. But how many times was Somersby placed in the Champion Chase after looking like having no chance? Festival Form comes back to bite you in the arse every year.
I would love to see him try front-running at Sandown at the beginning of February to give him a bit of confidence.
It was a good run in relation to the going
The New One gets further and just grinded it out of the runner up,
yes MTOY’s has good form on soft but Cheltenham is a stiffer course than the likes of KemptonBlackbeard to conquer the World
What would a racing post rating of 153 mean in comparison to an official rating?
Hard to draw any direct comparisons, although MTOY went into yesterday with an OR of 155. They are different mainly in that an RPR is an assessment of how a horse ran in one race. An OR is the official BHA handicapper’s assessment of a horse’s general merit irrespective of how that horse might run in one race. It would be highly unusual – certainly at the top level – for the BHA handicapper to make a significant change to a horse’s OR based on one race.
What would a racing post rating of 153 mean in comparison to an official rating?
Depends what the trainer is up to, if he is after a lower mark it means absolutely nothing.
Mark, not sure how you think I’ve been conned by anyone: I’ve never rated the horse because he very very seldom gets the job done. His Christmas Hurdle victory was a fortunate one which came about because TNO had not got back into top gear by the time the post came: it is the only close finish MTOY has ever won.
As for the ground, I didn’t mention it at all so I’m not sure why you’re referencing it. Zark’s contention which you seem to share, is that he is not far off his best and that he ran close to it today.
You both need to have a word with the handicapper who, at MTOY’s best, rated him 168 and today had him assessed at 155 the 3rd lowest rating of his career. If you both think he ran anywhere close to 168 today getting 8lbs and an easy beating from TNO, then TNO, at pushing nine has suddenly become a 175 to 180 horse. Little wonder everyone’s backing him for the Champion Hurdle.
Reason why I said about the going is that a lot of punters do believe MTOY is far better on soft and couldn’t see how you could think him miles below form, but fair enough if you agree with the Handicapper we’re only at most 4 lbs apart, Joe. It’s not that I rate MTOY as running very close to his best yesterday. It’s just that MTOY’s best soft ground form has been under-estimated by some and his good ground form over-estimated. I don’t see how anyone can rate his best soft ground form any more than 3 lbs better than his best good ground form (fair enough if you are not one of those Joe). imo Soft and Good can be rated the same. How much did TNO’s mistake at the final flight at Kempton cost TNO? He was beaten 1/2 length. Christmas Hurdle was run on soft; they went on to the Champion (on goodish ground) where TNO got hampered, lost ground and momentum, yet finished strongly to be only 2 1/2 lengths behind MTOY. How much did the interference cost TNO? 3 lbs? 2 lbs? 1 lb or 0? If believing it didn’t cost NTO anything, then MTOY’s soft ground best (and I emphasise “best”) is surely only 3 lbs inferior to his very best. That Champion Hurdle neck second to Jezki (2 1/2 lengths beating of TNO) is MTOY’s career best. imo Without the problems TNO encountered in both races he’d have finished alongside MTOY. They were of equal merit. It’s not surprising to me that TNO also led a long way out at Kempton.
So to Yesterday: Handicapper believes best was 168 and ran to 155 yesterday, so MTOY was in his opinion 13 lbs below form. My opinion isn’t that much different. Surprised he’s rated anymore than 12 lbs given distances and weights, imo slightly less – 9 lbs? MTOY was recieving 8 lbs and beaten 3 1/2 lengths by his old rival, 8 + 3.5 = 11.5 lbs difference. Let’s say NTO put up a performance 12 lbs better than MTOY. So TNO ran at least as well as he ever has and probably improved a little, 3 lbs? Which puts him only behind Faugheen and Annie Power. Suppose if the handicapper/you don’t believe NTO back to his best then MTOY could be rated more than 12 lbs below form, but imo that’s unlikely.
I’m NOT saying I believe The New One will win the Champion Hurdle, far from it. imo has only around a 7% chance. But 7% is roughly a fair 14/1 and 33/1 or now 25/1 is available.
Value Is EverythingGT good write up,but this this what i dont get,you believe the new one will NOT win the champion hurdle but you will back him because you think the books are out of line?
We all work different and betting and the methods intrigue me a lot,if you then back others in race you will be getting(in real terms) less than the 7% chance you believe he has.
Hope it wins for you,in terms of form i dont know a thing about hedgehoppers so i would not know a New One from an Old oneNEVER BEEN mtoy fan. every time he runs i think he is a big lay. seriously got head problems for me. you could never trust him if you backed him. its a shame as he is a good horse.
Ginger,
I have been looking at your figures, am trying to understand so bear with me.
if that horse with given chance (7%) ran a hundered races then a possible LLR is 63.5, LWR 1.7
Now there is only a 4% chance that the LLR will be hit.
Taking into account that your taken odds are 33/1 there is a 47% chance that a losing streak of 33 will occur in the 100 bets, have you got value?
Of course anyone snaffling the 25/1 will face a 77% chance that a losing run of 25 will occur.
Am I getting it wrong?
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