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Another day, another Hislop article linking Old Guard to the Aintree Hurdle. Cue Betfair drift. How many more times? It must be quite a scoop. It seems quite strange to me that Nicholls appears to be keeping a journalist better informed than his own stable jockey. Twiston-Davies did his Christmas debrief in the Post and there was no mention at all about the horse being re-routed. Naughty, naughty Sam.
I’ve thought Arctic Fire to be the play in this race for some time now and have taken 10/1 NRNB, each-way.
There has been talk of Nichols Canyon showing shades of Hurricane Fly but I don’t see it myself, not yet anyway. For me his most impressive performance came at Leopardstown last season when winning the Deloitte. He looked a bit sluggish at Christmas but to be fair the ground was terrible and Identity Thief is no slouch.
I’ve loved Faugheen since he first set foot on a racecourse and have been a vocal supporter of him the past two seasons, but the ship has sailed and I’m looking to take him on this year.
If any horse has the stuff to beat him it’s Arctic Fire. If any horse has reminded me of the Fly this season it’s Arctic Fire, and the way he dug it out at Navan before hosing in at Fairyhouse. His run last time was desperate but I’ll forgive him that and the way this Champion Hurdle is likely to shape up is going to suit him even better than last year. Until his last run he has been on a sharp upward curve and he looks like being the chief threat to the favourite once again.
Likely to be another Mullins clean sweep but I think Faugheen will win by 4 to 5L with NC exertions seeing him being picked off late on by AF (who will be ridden for a place) with IT just behind in 4th.
I think too much is made about Faugheen having to lead, I just think he needs an even gallop and if nobody else wants to do it he is happy to do it himself but I don’t think Ruby will be too worried if NC does go on, he will probably sit in 2nd unless the race turns tactical but the faster NC goes the more it plays into Faugheen’s hands who we know stays 3m.
I hope Faugheen shortens on the day and i’ll lay him if he goes to 1/2,he’s a brilliant horse but its his engine that’s his most potent weapon and he’s been allowed use it to great effect in the majority of his races, he doesn’t jump like a Champion hurdler to my eyes and with NC in there i think we’ll get to see a truly run race unlike that embarassment last year where the jockeys basically said go on ahead Rupert enjoy your win.
With a strong gallop and the mistakes Faugheen can make i think there’s a fair chance he’ll get beat,he can usually pick up when he does make a mistake as he’s tanking along at his leisure but if NC is really going a good tilt throughout them mistakes won’t be so easy to recover from. For what it’s worth i think Arctic Fire’s the bet e/w NRNB(as long as he’s spot on after his lung infection), race last year didn’t suit him at all with Faugheen going his own pace from the front yet Arctic fire was only a closing 1 1/2 lengths behind albeit never getting there. I can’t invision any way this race will have Faugheen winning easy and he looked ungenuine against NC earlier in the season when questions were asked. Can’t wait for this race.Completely agree fran the man,surely the jocks won’t let ruby have it all his own way up this time , maybe leave the door open to something off the pace (Arctic fire or mtoy if he gets there)
Utterly at a loss to understand NTD’s perseverance with this as a target for TNO, though I’m not even sure he’d have a chance in the World Hurdle.
But, more news now on why the horse didn’t win last year’s Champion, (aside from the kissing spine which they apparently discovered after the season closed), NTD said today:
We were eight lengths behind Faugheen last year and he had had a terrible build-up, the whole of his preparation was in the swimming pool because of his bad feet. We have got his feet right and he will be prepared by galloping this time so he will be better
Swimming pool? No work on the gallops? His feet (first time in his career I’ve heard this mentioned) were so bad, he could not work?
NTD seems to have lost it entirely with this horse. His misfortune behind Our Conor seems to have bored into Nigel’s head like a worm that won’t stop turning.
His jumping to the right has got steadily worse since his seasonal debut, suggesting that something is troubling him again. I wonder what the trainer will come up with this time when he gets stuffed in March.
I must be the only one who doesn’t believe that Faugheen has to lead in his races – correct me if I am wrong but his front running tactics didn’t start until he was dropped back to 2m at Punchestown at the end of his novice season, as prior to that he mostly sat off the pace.
With the except of his first race this season he hasn’t faced any confirmed front runners in his races and Ruby has always said to avoid those farcial small field races where they crawl most of the way and sprint the last 1/2 mile he would be happy to make his own running to simply ensure there was an even gallop.
To me I would put his seasonal debut defeat simply down to a lack of fitness (remember he was some 15-20 kilos lighter at Kempton) catching him out against a confirmed G1 performer rather than him not being able to lead the race. For me I think having someone else make the running will suit him and if they decide to make it a real strong gallop and stamina test well who else in the field has won over 3m? I would not expect any sort of battle for the lead between him and NC either at Cheltenham or tomorrow, I think Ruby will sit behind NC if he is going fast enough and if he slows it down he will just push on himself.
Re NTD and his comments on TNO, whatever he is smoking he needs to share it with the rest of the class – he simply gets outpaced at crucial stages in the Champion Hurdle (the year he was hampered he was only 1L behind MTOY at the top of the hill but by the time he came down it to the second last he was over 4L behind).
I thought the World Hurdle was a viable alternative for him this year but after another laboured performance today I think that race may even be a bridge too far for him – he should bypass the Festival altogether and wait for the Aintree Hurdle as he will have the advantage of being a fresher horse over those coming on from Cheltenham.
Absolute machine. Spectacular performance from Faugheen. Cant wait to be there on the day to see him do that
Suprised ladbrokes went 12/1 arctic fire after the race. And 4/1 without faugheen. Looks a complete over reaction imo
The only danger to Faugheen’s crown would have been if they had kept Douvan over hurdles.
Can see why they didn’t though as the Champion and the Arkle look safely secured for connections.
Hobbs’s War Sound is reportedly working well on the run-up to the Betfair where he’s set to carry 11.1
Unexposed, having been off the track since winning the Swinton last May, I think he’s worth a bet if you care for trading in the CH market. If he wins the Betfair, he’ll probably go to Cheltenham half the price of his current 33/1 NRNB. If he disappoints, he almost certainly won’t run.
Is My Tent or Your’s due out before the festival?
I know he is a gelding but it will take more than chopping off his peanuts to settle him and without a prep he’ll pull away any chance of getting near a place, the long lay off is a real worry, cant be having him at all for this.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Is My Tent or Your’s due out before the festival?
I know he is a gelding but it will take more than chopping off his peanuts to settle him and without a prep he’ll pull away any chance of getting near a place, the long lay off is a real worry, cant be having him at all for this.There was talk of him running in the Kingwell Hurdle after his most recent pull out. Haven’t heard anything since though.
Peace And Co very disappointing.
Way the race went was against him, but should’ve done much better. Settled fairly well this time but found nothing. Always had a high head carriage but may be that is a sighn of temperament or something hurting. May be a hood could bring a redemption, but think I am clutching at straws.Value Is Everything
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