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Can’t imagine anyone who has supported Old Guard will be overjoyed to see him pitching up at Christmas. After three tough races you would thought the horse deserved a nice little break before being freshened up for the big one which is actually in March. Obviously, Cheltenham and Kempton are chalk and cheese. The decision appears to be far more about forcing the hand of the jock rather than the best interests of the horse.
The decision is understandable in view of the small field, you don’t get a possible 10 or 20 grand stood in your box.
Of course the money element is true but a Kempton/small field doesn’t look his bag to me and one race too many could just wreck his progressive profile. What’s the difference in monetary terms between a decent place in the Champion and not even making the gig? Connections have made a nice few quid out of the horse this season, are they really that desperate?
I read elsewhere that Old Guard is now targeting the Aintree Hurdle? Anyone confirm?
It seems that Nicholls having made a complete fool of himself regarding race selection now wants to compound his own error. The horse had shown himself admirably suited by Cheltenham but the trainer now thinks it is a better idea to try a totally different course and trip? It looks sheer madness. As with any horse it really should be about what is best for the horse, not trying to prove a point to the jock and then unloading the second barrel on a few each-way punters.
Been on Peace And Co @ 12/1 each way since last year’s Festival. Disappointing on reappearance, pulled hard in a slowly run race on soft ground and had nothing left. I gather they may use headgear or tongue tie next time, that may help. As long as there’s no bad physical issue should not be written off given a much faster pace. Good going and truly run race could see a much different Peace And Co. If I wasn’t already on would go in again@ 16/1.
However, possibly the best current value is Identity Thief @ 16/1. Nichols Canyon is top price 7/1 for Cheltenham and had to pull out all the stops on very soft ground this week to hold off Henry De Bromhead’s horse. Identity Thief seems to have more pace than the Mullins Champion Hurdle second string. So why the difference in price?
Neither is likely to beat Faugheen, but both look each way value. Faugheen is a machine in front, just a chance not so good alongside or in behind. With Identity Thief, stable companion Nichols Canyon and possibly Peace And Co’s stable companion Top Notch aswell, just a chance Faugheen may not get it all his own way up front this time.
Value Is EverythingAs for Old Guard:
Why shouldn’t Nicholls run him? You can say Old Guard is better suited to Cheltenham, but that is by no means a certainty, why not give it a go and find out? Henderson ran Hargam who Old Guard beat 1 1/4 lengths at Cheltenham. Sure, Faugheen was the clear Kempton winner, but Hargam got beaten 3/4 length for second. So you could say had Old Guard ran “to form” he’d have finished second in the Christmas Hurdle!!!!!!! It wasn’t as if Old Guard had disappointed in his latest start going in to Boxing Day; he was improving/in good form. Team Ditcheat – through stable jockey STD – also probably had knowledge of how second favourite The New One was going at home – not at his best. With second place up for grabs, plus – naturally wanting to take on Faugheen coming off a disappointment… Can very well understand the logic of supplementing. Just so happens the race came when Nicholls was in the middle of perhaps the worst run of his whole career (Nicholls wasn’t to know that). Old Guard ran poorly, big deal, it sometimes happens. No reason why Old Guard can not return in fine fettle as others from the yard do. Although some seem to exaggerate his form anyway, got a lot to find to get involved in even the places at Cheltenham – another reason to run while the iron is hot. Nicholls has been Champion Trainer so many times; partly because of decisions like this, but logic does not always pay.
Not as if there were many runners, how many times do we hear “run the damn things”! At least Nicholls runs them.
Value Is EverythingIs there a vacancy for another media apologist? If so, I don’t think any other candidates need apply.
Really Ginger, do you actually believe what you have written? If they want to people can read for themselves and see that I hit every nail on the head PRIOR to the race.
Is there a vacancy for another media apologist? If so, I don’t think any other candidates need apply.
Really Ginger, do you actually believe what you have written? If they want to people can read for themselves and see that I hit every nail on the head PRIOR to the race.
Not sure what the media have to do with it.
Doesn’t matter if your thoughts were prior to the race.
There was every reason to run the horse.
I stand by every word, anything you particularly have a problem with Stilvi?
Value Is EverythingI think top notch has supported my previous post. Doesn’t say much for peace and co, or many of the horses they were ahead of in the triumph
Faugheen was not fit first time out, will peak in March not before new year
If they want to take him on or run along side they just aswell cut their own throats as Faugheen will not be stoppingBlackbeard to conquer the World
I’ve backed Peace & Co and Nich Canyon EW, but Faugheen looked to be right back to what he does best at Kempton: putting the opposition through the supremely efficient garbage disposal system driven by his massive engine. He is a one-off among hurdlers in my memory, disposing of rivals with ruthless efficiency – nothing fancy, no Sea Pigeon-like turn of foot, no rushing at every hurdle like Make A Stand, just running them all down from the front. Cannot see how he’ll get beaten in March.
Biggest mystery to me is Twister’s insistence in sticking to his optimism about winning a Champion Hurdle with TNO: ‘Never be afraid of one horse’ must be the most useless cliche in racing. He’d be much better throwing the TNO hat into a what is becoming a fascinating ring – The World Hurdle.
Biggest mystery to me is Twister’s insistence in sticking to his optimism about winning a Champion Hurdle with TNO: ‘Never be afraid of one horse’ must be the most useless cliche in racing. He’d be much better throwing the TNO hat into a what is becoming a fascinating ring – The World Hurdle.
It’s just words and excuses Joe. Twister knows the longer the trip the more hurdles there are to jump, the less chance TNO has. Not that he has much of one at Cheltenham anymore with current jumping technique. Not the same horse of a couple of seasons ago, in those good years there was nowhere near as much jumping righ-handed (RH).
imo No coincidence this season he’s run at Kempton (RH) first time out, found something that stopped him running in the International at Cheltenham (LH), ran in the Christmas Hurdle (RH), and now instead of going for a prep at Haydock (LH) (as last year)… Twister is eyeing up either Sandown (RH) or Wincanton (RH). Strange that.
Needs a right-handed track to have any chance of a return to his best… and even then it’s very unlikely.
Value Is EverythingI think top notch has supported my previous post. Doesn’t say much for peace and co, or many of the horses they were ahead of in the triumph
Do you really think Top Notch ran to his best today Thewexfordman?
Why not judge Top Notch (and therefore Peace And Co) on his run against Identity Thief (and therefore Nichols Canyon)?
Top Notch got beat a neck by Peace And Co and a neck by Identity Thief who was in turn only beaten 2 lengths by Nichols Canyon.
Hargam was beaten 4 1/4 lengths by Peace And Co in the Triumph, just 1 1/4 by Old Guard and 7 3/4 by Faugheen.
Value Is EverythingSTD said that Old Guard was flat out all the way at Kempton so a step up in trip might not be a bad idea as he is not obviously capable of winning a Champion and you wouldn’t really want to be throwing him into a hot Festival handicap either.
Personally felt that Identity Thief would have beaten NC if they hadn’t have eyeballed him from two out and I am not sure if you can take the form literally as they were racing on ground that will be the polar opposite to that at Cheltenham in March.
To give him any chance of settling, I think the Henderson camp will need to use Top Notch as a pacemaker for P&C as I don’t think Faugheen or NC will go fast enough for him otherwise – for me I don’t even think Faugheen needs to lead (sat handy when winning the Neptune) and his defeat, I would simply put down to him not being fit enough to deal with a proven G1 performer first time out (afterall Ricci said he was some 15kg lighter at Kempton).
I also believe Faugheen has a lot more speed than most people give him credit for, go back to last year’s Champion at the second last and he had all the so called speed horses sitting on his tail and even following his less than fluent jump he still put 3-4L into them off the turn – he did exactly the same at Kempton and as long as he has an evenly run race (be it front running or not) I think he will deal with all of them in much the same manner.
MTOY is the slight unknown – but even if he retains all of his old ability (a big if) on a line through TNO he has a bit to find on Faugheen plus (to a lesser extent) he has similar issues as P&C with being able to be settled early in the race.
Ginger he has had three cracks at the whip now and has been very underwhelming. Peace and co has been underwhelming in his one crack so far and hargam has done very little since of any note either. A hugely overrated triumph hurdle
Once Faugheen ran away with the Christmas Hurdle it certainly went a long way to closing the door on any each-way value.
With a each-way bet there has to be at least a small prospect of collecting on the win element. Now if you looking at the each-way market it is in the hope that Faugheen’s seasonal debut was something more than fitness added to the fact that he didn’t exactly run away with last year’s Champion.
Peace And Co needs to leave behind a dire performance and also improve. I think it takes a huge leap of faith to see that happening. If he does make it I hope they allow him to bowl along as that might at least put paid to the idea of Nichols Canyon and Faugheen dictating whatever pace they want.
In my opinion Nichols Canyon remains too short. He is in the mix for a place but no more than that. His defeat of Faugheen was all about the runner up disappointing. I don’t believe the winner suddenly took a massive step forward. That theory was pretty much confirmed by his subsequent win. Identity Thief basically had him cooked but definitely faltered close home and with the aid of the rail Nichols Canyon just kept going.
Identity Thief has been supported in last couple of weeks but I would be wary of any horse that loses a race that he looks to have had in his pocket. He has no form on a really stiff track like Navan and I wonder if the Cheltenham hill is going to be his bag. Presumably, he will again press the pace unless of course Peace And Co is allowed to stride on.
Any lines of form with Hargam are probably not that reliable given that horse almost certainly wants a flat track and quick ground. If he hasn’t been over-faced too many times by then something like the Swinton (or whatever it is now called) might suit.
Camping Ground is being quoted off the back of a Segal suggestion. I can see him putting the horse up NRNB. Much will depend on the Cleeve but there is a huge difference to travelling well in a staying hurdle on testing ground compared to a Champion Hurdle with the expectation of much quicker ground. I would have thought that if he disappoints in the Cleeve the Aintree Hurdle would represent a much better and likelier option.
Old Guard was bumped out to 40/1 after the Kempton debacle. He was around 16-20/1 beforehand so something of an over-reaction given all the possible negatives before the race. With the added bonus of NRNB he remains the closest to any value. Faugheen aside, I doubt the others at the top end of the market are covered by any more than 7-10 pounds. If you ignore the Kempton race it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see Old Guard find that amount of improvement.
Fair summary, Stilvi. Wouldn’t write of NC quite yet. Faugheen must indeed have been amiss when beaten by him, but the horse himself is bordering on top class and he’ll be very well served in the Champion by that never-say-die attitude common to the likes of Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace and others.
Although the win part of EW bets at the festival can offer only faint hope sometimes, I believe it’s a ripe area for each way trebles, and accumulators which I’ve made fair use of in the past three years. I believe you were unlucky with Djakadam last year: he was the 4th leg for me in a tenner EW acc, and despite being the sole loser, the place compensation was handsome (though the defeat no less frustrating!)
Fair summary, Stilvi. Wouldn’t write of NC quite yet. Faugheen must indeed have been amiss when beaten by him, but the horse himself is bordering on top class and he’ll be very well served in the Champion by that never-say-die attitude common to the likes of Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace and others.
Although the win part of EW bets at the festival can offer only faint hope sometimes, I believe it’s a ripe area for each way trebles, and accumulators which I’ve made fair use of in the past three years. I believe you were unlucky with Djakadam last year: he was the 4th leg for me in a tenner EW acc, and despite being the sole loser, the place compensation was handsome (though the defeat no less frustrating!)
Nice of you to say so but on the day I wasn’t really unlucky – Coneygree was the better horse – it was just a little frustrating that the winner’s entry came out of left field. Of course it didn’t help that I had similar bets on Djakadam and Holywell but it was only Holywell that I backed each-way.
Have to agree with Joe here. It will be interesting to see if he leads and whether he takes on Faugheen for this lead. The biggest danger will be at the same point as last year when Faugheen put the race to bed in a few strides despite clattering the second last. If he can live with him at this point and still has the advantage, then he will definitely stay up the hill and with his fighting qualities, seen to good effect over Christmas, will be a difficult horse to pass. But you are trusting on the race run to suit and probably Faugheen running a bit below par. But I can’t see him been out of the first 3.
Aye Homer, that aspect of Faugheen in a battle perhaps deserves more attention. The only one he’s been in – with NC, he lost. Although steadily winning back ground as they came to the line, his first inclination under pressure was to hang in behind NC; it could be argued that this was nothing to do with a lack of fitness.
It could make for some late in-play interest if Faugheen has not shaken him off by the time they land over the last.
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