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I’d be pretty certain nicholls canyon will make the pace.
He might want to but I would rather he wasn’t allowed the luxury. I would like to see an end to end gallop. Putting something in to dictate would probably wreck whatever chance he had and benefit those who want a true test at the same time.
Imo if they put something infront of NC it will be ignored and left out infront on his own and NC will still dictate the pace at an even gallop. Will take a very good one to get this fella of the bridle.
NC’s last run suggests that 2m on soft is ideal, and he has plenty smart form on easy ground. But 3 good runs in succession (inc 2 victories) on faster ground than soft says that it’s not essential by any means. More critical to him perhaps, is being allowed to stride on in front.
Anyway, Cheltenham’s policy will assure him of g/s at least, and the hill will add that final twist of stamina to suit him.
And it’s way too early to be writing off P&C, especially at 20s. He’ll run next in a crossed noseband; whether they then add some more gear, we’ll have to wait and see. But he’s still very inexperienced, and although you’ll never get rich reacting to everything a trainer says, Henderson has had enough top class hurdlers through his hands to know one when he sees it, and he’s been saying since late summer that he might just have something to beat Faugheen.
Every so often something happens in a market which cannot be explained by the formbook. Sometimes these things spark plain silly reactions from traders, perhaps on a ‘who has the biggest balls’ basis, and these are the errors that can pay for your season’s punting. 20/1 Peace and Co is one of them, imo.
I agree about nc joe. I hope wylie makes sure this is the case as he winds the race up perfectly before staying on strongly. He finds alot of the bridle as do mullins other 2.
Can’t wait to see faugheen at Christmas, will hopefully come back to his best and as a nh fan I hope and believe this will be the case. will be a big sigh of relief for most if he wins on the bridle.
As it stands I hope the new one and mtoy amongst others turn up so it’s not a fore gone conclusion.I am sceptical as to whether Henderson will ever be able to get P&C to settle sufficiently to show what type of horse he is/may be – they haven’t really been able to get MTOY to settle properly before his injury layoff and P&C seems to pull even worse than him. He would be better suited to a race like the Betfair Hurdle (that MTOY won) where he can be burried away in a big field with a strong pace to enable him to settle.
Unfortunately, Champion Hurdles and all the recognised prep races for it are always tactically run with relatively small fields and that is kryptonite for any horse that refuses to drop the bridle and settle – even if you have a confirmed front runner they don’t go an end to end gallop anymore.
As some have already commented on if someone goes off faster than NC or Faugheen (the most likely front runners) they are probably going too fast or an outsider and in both cases are going to be ignored – the only way that would change is if Henderson puts in and sacrifices a pacemaker (Top Notch as he is in the same ownership as P&C) and gets P&C and/or MTOY to actually follow the pace, which would mean the rest would have to follow them as well. The pair may settle better like that but the problem with that tactic is you are playing into the hands of the two best stayers (Faugheen and NC).
It’s beginning to look like I’m the world’s biggest apologist for Peace & Co (even worse than J Corbyn in Stop The War). That wasn’t my intent at the outset, it was just to highlight the value at 20s, which, at worse can be traded out, and if he shapes up in the meantime, held onto.
Saturday was just his 4th run in the UK and the 5th of his life. He’s entitled to come on quite a bit yet, just from racing, never mind restraining kit or a change of jockey. Yes, he pulls, but Saturday was way beyond anything he’s done before. He settled well off a slower pace in the Trial in January, pulled somewhat on his Donny debut and until they’d jumped the first in the Triumph, but he’s not crazy by any means.
On comparisons with MTOY – that horse will be 9 shortly, and was still pulling hard when last seen (and he was significantly harder to settle than P&C, who will be 5 in a couple of weeks). At the business end of a race, P&C seems more willing than MTOY often was. He idled in the Triumph, but at least managed to go past, not something MTOY was always capable of.
While they might put Top Notch in, just in case, I don’t think NC will hang around; he’s not short of stamina himself.
I agree with you Joe, I said after the race not to write him off.
He’s got an engine, just needs to run through the gears in the correct order.
At 20’s Peace and Co is a each/way option or if you can get a decent place odds now for place only and lay off in-running could be a way to go. Henderson said in the RP that he P@C had a cut on his leg which happened early in the race and set the horse a light. If that is the case then the re-action is over the top for such a lightly raced horse.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Can’t imagine anyone who has supported Old Guard will be overjoyed to see him pitching up at Christmas. After three tough races you would thought the horse deserved a nice little break before being freshened up for the big one which is actually in March. Obviously, Cheltenham and Kempton are chalk and cheese. The decision appears to be far more about forcing the hand of the jock rather than the best interests of the horse.
Can’t imagine anyone who has supported Old Guard will be overjoyed to see him pitching up at Christmas. After three tough races you would thought the horse deserved a nice little break before being freshened up for the big one which is actually in March. Obviously, Cheltenham and Kempton are chalk and cheese. The decision appears to be far more about forcing the hand of the jock rather than the best interests of the horse.
Doubt that very much, although the race is coming too quick ideally. The decision is understandable in view of the small field, you don’t get a possible 10 or 20 grand stood in your box.
Can’t imagine anyone who has supported Old Guard will be overjoyed to see him pitching up at Christmas. After three tough races you would thought the horse deserved a nice little break before being freshened up for the big one which is actually in March. Obviously, Cheltenham and Kempton are chalk and cheese. The decision appears to be far more about forcing the hand of the jock rather than the best interests of the horse.
The decision is understandable in view of the small field, you don’t get a possible 10 or 20 grand stood in your box.
Of course the money element is true but a Kempton/small field doesn’t look his bag to me and one race too many could just wreck his progressive profile. What’s the difference in monetary terms between a decent place in the Champion and not even making the gig? Connections have made a nice few quid out of the horse this season, are they really that desperate?
Can’t imagine anyone who has supported Old Guard will be overjoyed to see him pitching up at Christmas. After three tough races you would thought the horse deserved a nice little break before being freshened up for the big one which is actually in March. Obviously, Cheltenham and Kempton are chalk and cheese. The decision appears to be far more about forcing the hand of the jock rather than the best interests of the horse.
The decision is understandable in view of the small field, you don’t get a possible 10 or 20 grand stood in your box.
Of course the money element is true but a Kempton/small field doesn’t look his bag to me and one race too many could just wreck his progressive profile. What’s the difference in monetary terms between a decent place in the Champion and not even making the gig? Connections have made a nice few quid out of the horse this season, are they really that desperate?
Dreadful performance but £5,330 pocketed. Well done connections.
Well lads after today it looks like Mullins will have the first three again. He has at least 5 horses who could have got closer to Faugheen than the New One did. And the New One is by far the best of the British two mile division which is a sad state of affairs.
My Champion hurdle prediction is a very tight race between Faugheen, Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire (who possibly might run in World Hurdle or Aintree hurdle instead)Faugheen, Nichols Canyon, Top Notch…looks like a hot pace is assured, which will significantly increase the chances of Peace & Co who might, at worst, manage to stop a Mullins domination of the places
I don’t believe TOP Notch is capable at that Level. He has been unable to beat Irving and Identity Thief, neither of whom are champion hurdle class. And TN got within a nose of Peace and Co in the triumph so I can’t honestly see Peace and Co competing in a champion hurdle, certainly not this year’s. I wouldn’t mind if I was wrong but I don’t think the form suggests that either Top notch or peace and Co could feature at the business end of the champion hurdle
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