2016 Champion Hurdle

Wish I didn’t get suckered in to the skybet price boost on p&co now as I really diddnt fancy him but I thought it was a fair price for the place.
Still I have nicholls canyon ew at 20s and faugheen 5/2. 6/4 and 5/4.
The Ryanair hurdle and Christmas hurdle are going to be very interesting.
Arctic fire v nicholls canyon.
Could make a case for arctic fire going to the 3 mile christmas hurdle now. But looks like willies going for the 1-2-3

You couldn’t say with any confidence that Peace & Co will win the CH, but I’m happy to say with confidence that Paddy’s reaction – sticking him out 20s is plain daft. It’s not as if he simply disappointed in a properly run race, his race was effectively over after two flights. The Champion Hurdle is likely to be as quickly run as he’d like. Ruby got his way in front last time, and the others won’t be quite so cooperative come March, especially Nichols Canyon who already knows what it feels like to draw the sting out of Faugheen.

The best thing Henderson could do is find a way to get Geraghty back on this horse. Have a look at the Triumph Trial in January, when they went only half the early pace they did today. P&C pulled just as hard when the tapes went up but Geraghty, with his fine hands, had him pretty much settled after the first. Hargam does not look quite up to CH class, so maybe there’s a chance for Geraghty and Henderson; otherwise, maybe Nico will get the job. Jacob said afterwards he thought the horse had made a noise, though the vet found nothing. Perhaps a scope will be more revealing, or maybe Jacob was just trying to cover some of his embarrassment.

Henderson thinks an awful lot of Peace & Co; he almost slipped up post-race ‘Listen, I know where this horse stands with Hargam..’ He left it at that, doubtless not wishing to risk upsetting JP.

On the downside, a concern about the horse is that the Triumph is beginning to look a poor one. It seem very unlikely that even a yard as big as Henderson’s will harbour three top-class hurdlers of the same generation, although Top Notch has done well, and Hargam respectably. The upside of that Triumph is that the winner absolutely tanked through it, and won with a fair lump in hand, imo.

Anyway, I’m on Nichols Canyon mainly, with some 14s P&C, but have added some more at 20s.

So often the obvious is overlooked.

The horse to take out of yesterday’s race is the winner. I think he won despite the way the race was run and the second and third were almost certainly flattered to finish so close. I don’t think it is at all unreasonable to think he can find another 7lbs plus. It is a big plus that he clearly handles the track and seems to relish a challenge up the hill. Probably also worth bearing in mind he was very weak in the market.

This isn’t a strong division. Given the run of the race I don’t think Faugheen was that impressive in taking what wasn’t a vintage Champion Hurdle. Perhaps he was unfit for his reappearance but I doubt connections would have wanted to just throw away an unbeaten record so I can only assume he was deemed fit enough to win. He now has more than a few questions to answer and chances are they are not going to properly addressed before March. Nichols Canyon has since been talked up as a contender but I think the form of that run was all about the favourite disappointing rather than the winner finding massive improvement. In the context of winning a Champion his Neptune run was also pretty average and for me he really is a shocking price. Identity Thief improved to win a Fighting Fifth but again that was an ordinary renewal and it is very hard to see him making a significant impact in March.

So I think at this stage a little each-way on an improving, three-time course winner with a commendable attitude and no obvious ground preference is definitely the way to go. 25/1 is too big.

Stilvi. Nicholls canyon vastly under rated Imo. Should have ran in the supreme last year. And took a keen pull in the neptune he needs to be on the pace. Take the neptune run away and everybody would be absolutely raving about this horse.
Very very impressive at aintree and punchestown last year after the festival and picked up where he left of last season. I don’t know what all the talk about massive improvement to just beat faugheen comes from. As he already had the form in the book to put it up to faugheen. Sempre medicine was 4th at punchestown where NC slaughtered alpha des obeaux Outlander and co. And he was putting it up to old guard on his first run of the season.
Good luck with old guard. Would certainly shock me if he beat Arctic fire nicholls canyon or faugheen home. But I see where your coming from on an English potential perspective.

Nicky says that peace and co still an intended runner in the champion and hargam set to miss the champion for aintree. That narrows down the field a little

Don’t think jp would let barry get of MTOY. and arguably it may be a better ride for barry if he retains his ability.

He’s set to run in the Christmas hurdle which has been the plan all along according to henderson. won’t beat a fit faugheen but will be an interesting race none the less

Nathan, oddly, P&C set out with his mouth open,too! Hope you had a good night.

Joe

I would like to see as big a field as possible for Old Guard but it does look as if we will be lucky to get 10. Surely the last thing the challengers will want is Walsh dictating on the front end so hopefully the likes of Henderson and Nicholls can come up with something to make sure that doesn’t happen again. At the moment the most obvious move would be to allow Top Notch to bowl along but that theory does rather depend on Peace And Co actually making the race.