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Strange that Nicholls has almost gone out of his way to emphasise how badly Old Guard has worked – stable girl almost in tears sounds a bit over the top to me. Has Hislop slipped him a few quid? Seriously, surely the odd one of his has worked badly prior to Cheltenham before and it is not as if this is a short priced favourite?
Strange that Nicholls has almost gone out of his way to emphasise how badly Old Guard has worked – stable girl almost in tears sounds a bit over the top to me. Has Hislop slipped him a few quid? Seriously, surely the odd one of his has worked badly prior to Cheltenham before and it is not as if this is a short priced favourite?
I’ve found it frustrating with Nicholls in the past, with his “everything
in the garden is rosy” approach before a race, only to find that there had
been some concerns reported later. So I’d rather he was upfront with “dire”
workouts or the like, at least it doesn’t leave us gnashing our teeth after
a poor run, only to hear there had beens some concerns.It may well just have had an off day, we all have them, and might run a decent
race, but I’d rather hear reports like this so I can equate them into my decision
to bet or leave alone.A fair bit of 9/4 available on Annie Power this morning.
Surely Bookmakers will want to take her on and 3/1 will be more like it on Tuesday morning?
All thirteen stood their ground today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Interesting to note that none of the first four home from last year made it back this year – with Faugheen’s absence it is now a more competitive race.
I find it hard to buy into NTD re TNO as there always seems to be an excuse after he gets found out – he could win this by default but I still think it will need AP and NC to underperform before that happens.
With Lil Rockerfeller/NC/Camping Ground in the field it will be a well run race and that will play into AP hands and I can’t see past her if she brings her ‘A’ game.
Can’t remember the last time i didn’t have a bet in this race but this year i won’t.
Feet up and watch what i find a very interesting race with every horse having a number of question marks beside them. I’ll probably sit in The New ones corner as he gets a lot of stick for no good reason
. There seems to be a lack of love for Annie Power on here which surprises me. She is out to 9/4 now and if she is available at 5/2 or even 3/1 on Tuesday morning I reckon that is a very good bet. She has always been a mare of considerable quality but the majority of her races have been against vastly inferior opposition so it is hard to get a handle on her to compare with the other contenders.
Her four races against geldings have been very impressive. Two defeats of Zarkander, the first a workmanlike performance when in need of the run and the second a more convincing win, show her to be a well worth her place in a Champion Hurdle.
Zarkander couldn’t win a Champion Hurdle but is arguably a better horse over further and it was over 2m 4f that Annie Power defeated him. That level of form, granted at 2m 4f, shows her to be a Grade 1 animal.Her latest run in open company was two years ago in the World Hurdle when beaten by More Of That. For me, she lost little in defeat having travelled keenly and only outstayed from the last to the winning post. At a trip that stretched her, it is not a huge leap to ascertain that she is a Grade 1 animal at trips short of three miles.
Her first run in open company was one that I loved. Three years ago now, it’s remarkable to see how well the form has worked out in the period since. At two miles she beat a really strong novice hurdle field, with Defy Logic, Don Cossack, The Tullow Tank and Moscow Mannon all beaten in good style.
Those who say she hasn’t got the form at this level at two miles are correct, but she has not been given the chance to achieve it. Her one run at two miles that was against decent company, the Naas novice hurdle, cannot be faulted. Her one run in Grade 1 company at the festival came over three miles and she came within a couple of lengths of victory.
The opposition does not look particularly strong. Nichols Canyon would be the main danger if bouncing back to his best but he was well below form last time out and has had a tough season. Identity Thief is the other improver but needs to step up again. The New One – haven’t we been here before? I will be surprised if he is going to win a Champion Hurdle at his third attempt. There are huge question marks about the remainder.
I feel those doubting whether Annie Power has the requisite pace for this are barking up the wrong tree and would much prefer backing her at 9/4 than gambling on whether Nichols Canyon or Identity Thief can bounce back/step up.
Annie Power by five.
Really not looking forward to this, had Faugheen in a few multiples and singles when he got beat to NC.
I think Annie will drift to around 11/4 or 3/1 on the day. A lot may depend on the first race with Min, if he loses the bookies will dangle the Annie Power carrot. She doesn’t owe them anything after last year….
They may make her a big ‘promo’ special in the morning, money back if she loses.
I’m keen on her by default as nothing else in the field takes my fancy. MTOY’s may have done but I cant have him first time out in such a race having been off two years. The New One’s position in the market shows what a poor race it is. I wont go big on Annie but will stick her in the Mullins 4 fold for something to cheer. Other than that it would be Peace and Co as I’ve done him in Vtc’s Cheltenham v Pricewise competition.Blackbeard to conquer the World
That’s a fine post, Tommy, and on the face of things, you’re bang on – especially as she gets half a stone (think about it…half a stone) from inferior horses (bar Camping Ground, a pound above her).
My sole concern, and the reason I won’t have another bet in the race, is the chance she will remember that horrendous fall she took last year, which looked a neck-breaker at first sight. Then, when she got to her feet, something cannoned into her. Also, it’s the only time she has fallen.
Now had it happened at some small backwater, everyday meeting you’d say she’ll probably forget about it. But I doubt that any horse forgets being at the Cheltenham Festival. There’s plenty past evidence that horses remember bad experiences – not all horses, but we won’t get to find out if AP is one of those until race time. If she’s in a muck sweat in the paddock, you’ll see a serious drift.
I suspect she will run no race whatever (and maybe even be pulled up), or she’ll have shrugged it off and will win in a canter.
I’m gonna go a bit wide of the mark and put one up that nobody else has.
With hotpot Faugheen missing the race and Annie Power the back up plan so to speak, I think there could be a slight shock. I can see a Punjabi happening. My Tent is Henderson’s “No 1″ having not raced for two years, but I’m gonna plump for Top Notch.
Ran a good race in defeat in the Triumph and ran a very good race against Identity Thief when you could argue the stable was badly out of form. I can’t understand how, although just done in the dying strides, he’s four (ish) times the price of identity Thief, who was done by Nichols Canyon in a similar fashion in the slog that was the Ryanair hurdle. Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief don’t have much between them and the prices suggest that, so based on the fighting fifth I’m putting up Top Notch as the each way value in a race where anything could win it now. Had a nice confidence booster last time out, and for a horse that has done little wrong, the 16/1 seems a good each way bet.Totally agree Jamie. So many question marks about the whole field. imo some of the outsiders look worth considering.
I’m already on each way Identity Thief @ 16/1 but he’s no longer value and Peace And Co @ 12/1 unfortunately from last year, but if betting from scratch right now it would be.
30 points each way @ 20/1 Top Notch (min 10/1)
16 points each way @ 25/1 Camping Ground (min 16/1)
savers:
5 points win @ 25/1 Peace And Co (min 25/1)
3 points win @ 33/1 Lil Rockafella (min 33/1)
(100 points in all)This is my 100% book on the race:
Annie Power 3/1, Identity Thief 15/2, The New One 17/2, Nicholls Canyon 17/2, Top Notch 17/2, My Tent Or Yours 11/1, Camping Ground 14/1, Peace And Co 20/1, Lil Rockafella 25/1, Sempre Medici 25/1, Hargam 33/1, Sign Of A Victory 100/1.Value Is EverythingHad a good look at the race last night. It’s fascinating but a bit of a let down so I’m assuming there could be a huge upset. Camping ground could be that upset. Although I’d love to see TNO win; trouble is if he does it will be one of those ‘he only won because there were no decent horses in the race’ situations and he deserves better than that. I think NTD could be in for a good week.
If you are going to throw a few quid at outsiders this week I would have thought this race was a decent starting point.
There doesn’t look to be anything near an outstanding contender and it would be quite a surprise to see something run away with the race.
With alas no Old Guard for me the two best long shots now look to be Lil Rockerfeller and Hargam. The first named might be that bit tougher up the hill but Hargam on quicker ground is a classy sort who doesn’t really have that much to find.
Such a trappy renewal with question marks hanging over almost all.
Annie Power is probably the right price at 9/4 getting the weight but I’d always be concerned it’s going to happen too fast for her – even when winning easily against inferior mares she’s often clattered one or two.
I really fancied The New One two years ago and was gutted when he was shuffled back by Our Conor’s tragic fall. I’ll be happy if he wins but he’s going to hit a flat spot and then can he pick up in his third Champion Hurdle..
If My Tent wins Hendo has pulled off a training feat for the ages. But I can’t back a horse off a 2-year break.
Camping Ground is surely not quite as good as his rating, and can he deliver anything close to it on much better ground anyway? Beaten off 150 in the Imperial Cup last time over 2 miles. He did beat Lil Rockefeller though on NYD and it’s hard to see why the latter would turn it around at the shorter trip.
Peace & Co another enigma. Looked a complete nutter in the Bula but his Sandown run did have glimmers of promise and he probably wasn’t suited by the slow trip. Hargam has beaten too often by too many different horses for my liking and I prefer Top Notch who’s been a bit in and out but is much the same horse as Identity Thief on Fighting Fifth running and just might reverse the form with a stiffer test. But all 3 have the 5yo stat to contend with.
Nichols Canyon is solid but I don’t know, just a bit uninspiring! I may end up backing him on course but despite winning a raft of Irish G1’s a lot of those races are a bit soft.
So far then I’m ignoring the 5yo hoodoo and I’ve thrown a few quid ew at Top Notch and had a small win bet on Peace & Co – I just have a feeling he may give Nico de B a big run tomorrow and at 20-1 I don’t have to have too much on ;) I may have something on Nichols Canyon tomorrow or I may just leave it….
Weakest renewal ever seen – winner could be any of 5 but Annie’s 7lb could claim it for her
The New One seems as well supported as anything this past week. The opposite seems true of Identity Thief.
I just can’t buy into Annie Power’s 2 mile form. It is one thing beating Don Cossack over hurdles but she was getting weight and Don Cossack’s only hurdle win was a maiden hurdle and he was beaten favourite the time after running behind Annie Power. That 2 mile hurdle form is also more than three years old.
The lingering doubt has to be why Annie Power hasn’t been tried here before if she was so good at 2 miles. The absence of the big names is why she is here and that also gives others their chance for fame as well.
I don’t see much money for My Tent Or Yours and Peace And Co, along with Top Notch are trying to give the kiss of life to last year’s Triumph Hurdle form.
I liked Hargam last season but he never went forward the way I expected and he’s just not getting the wins.
I am having a rev fc on The New One and Nichols Canyon, who despite having the wins on the board, doesn’t have the rating you would expect of a true Group 1 Champion yet.
I am laying Identity Thief to a place here at 7/4.
1. The New One
2. Nichols Canyon
3. Annie PowerThanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think this could be The New One’s year. Twiston-Davies is bullish and his list of excuses actually seems to correlate well with this horse’s recent history. He said TNO wasn’t fit enough to do himself justice in the Christmas Hurdle, which certainly makes sense when you look at his unusually weak finish there.
If we see The New One as he was two years ago (and that seems to be the promise), then watch out Annie!
Annie Power also has her obvious strong chance, but The New One at his best picked apart old yardstick Zarkandar just as impressively as she ever did.
That’s the value angle for me. I’m strongly against Nichols Canyon as he is much happier on deep ground. Identity Thief should improve on a sound surface but looks very skinny in the betting given the actual level of form shown so far.
My Tent Or Yours was narrowly beaten in both the Supreme and Champion Hurdle. In both races I thought he would have won if the jockey on the winner had been on MTOY, maybe I’m talking through my pocket but if I owned a top class horse running at Cheltenham it would be Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty as my choice of jockey. He is the classiest horse in the race and if Barry Geraghty can get him to relax he will be travelling as well as anything with 2 to jump so is worth at least a back to lay bet. He has some similarities to Sea Pigeon who pulled really hard early in his career but relaxed more when older and won plenty, we may see a more relaxed MTOY here, this is the time to catch him, he has won on every seasonal debut. The extended absence is a worry but N Henderson has done it before with See You Then. Nothing else in the field inspires me, Annie Power has never seen the cut and thrust of a top class 2 mile race and the others all have question marks about them so in an open race I am not deserting MTOY.
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