Caspian Caviar Gold Cup 2016

botchy1 wrote:

Buywise to win @ 14’s

It feels like this horse has lost me a fortune but i’ve actually done quite well with him when i think about it. Certainly good enough to win if he jumps the first few well, hence the win bet.

I’ve had Village Vic down to win this since the books opened and somehow never backed him. So had a small bet on him as well @ 8’s just to save me from jumping off a bridge if he beats Buywise by a nose.

Good luck to all, especially to the believers

Get the forecast on Botchy

I like Bouvreuil at 9-1 + Quite By Chance at 16-1. I might do a reverse forecast as well.

Zarkava wrote:

Horses aged 9 and up don’t win this. Bye bye, Turban, Module, Buywise and Village Vic.

Also a huge advantage to be French-bred. Bye bye, Kylemore Lough, Quite By Chance, King’s Odyssey, Thomas Brown and Sizing Codelco.

I suspect Full Shift is being prepared for a race at Kempton around Christmas, so we can overlook him. Bye bye, Full Shift.

I expect Roman Flight is handicapped to the max. Also interesting that despite the great record of French-bred horses, the 3 winners aged 8+ were all GB/IRE-bred. Bye bye, Roman Flight (and Module, and Buywise, and Turban. Again.)

So…Bouvreuil, Solar Impulse, Aso, Frodon and Aloomomo.

I have to agree with TAPK, I can’t see Aloomomo doing anything in this. He’s handicapped to the max because of that facile win in soft ground at Newbury. Well the ground today is quick, and he won’t be winning this. Bye bye, Aloomomo.

Bouvreuil…a lot of judges like him. Easy to see why. I just wonder whether the ground might be a bit too quick for him. He kind of got detached from the front 4 in the Paddy Power and was only running on late when his stamina kicked in. He’s finished 32025 in handicaps and gone from 133 to 146 in the process and might be in danger of maxing out his mark without winning a race. Both wins came on soft/heavy – he finished 5th of 5, beaten 29L on his only start on good ground. I don’t see any obvious reason why he should finish ahead of Aso, other than the ground. Aso killed him in the Paddy Power. Was held up behind him, flew past him, belted the last 2 and still finished ahead. I can’t see the 5lb swing in Bouvreuil’s favour reversing terms.

Aso. Ground concerns also plague him. His 5 career wins all come on soft/heavy. He’s never run on ‘good’ ground or quicker before in this country. He killed Bouvreuil in the Paddy Power, he has much more speed (wasn’t completely disgraced in the Arkle), he beat Ballyalton off even weights in January on soft ground (Bouvreuil was getting 2lbs from Ballyalton in March and got beaten 1/2L) and he goes into the Caspian with an outstanding chance. He’s a Venetia Williams system qualifier, he’s French-bred, he’s the right age and he’s had the right prep. But is the ground right? If it’s right, I believe he’ll win. Interestingly, he’s only run in 2 handicaps – first, behind Arzal, who went on to win a Grade 2. The 4th + 5th won handicaps on their next or 2nd next start.

Frodon. No such concerns here. In fact the concerns for him are the reports of potential rain. 4/5 of his career wins have come on good ground. Ignore the 0 from the Paddy Power. He made a big mistake which effectively ended his race when making a move and had run only 7 days earlier. Like Aso, he’s French, he’s the right kind of age and he’s had the right kind of prep. Trained by PfN (has won this race 3 times with French-bred horses). My only other concern would be his age (4), but his price is nice enough to take the chance.

Solar Impulse – I reckon his connections are just looking to get his handicap mark down for March.

Strongest claims
1. Frodon
2. Aso

Forecast

You can’t do better than that Zark, you were unlucky in the Raymond Mould but you had
it bang on here….well done

You deserved that Zark’.

I backed Frodon too…

…But then the rains came and laid most of it back.

Apologies Joliff, I missed you had put him up too, well done

Well done everyone Joliff,Lionroars and Zark i was on ASO gutted i was

And Zark any views on the classics for 2017 all threads are in this thread now