- This topic has 39 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 2 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Still the best part of a month away, but a race I absolutely love, and one of the better flat races for me, so hoping to keep that going this year, and with just the 244 entries to work through, then it should be relatively straightforward.
No great surprise to see Dancing Star and Growl at the head of the market, with the victory of Dance Star in The Stewards Cup at Goodwood fresh in the memory, and Growl looking tailor made for something like this all season. Growl, in particular looks very popular already, and has a few quid kicking about for him.
Of those just behind them in the betting, then Raucous looks very dangerous at the 14’s, and his third behind Dancing Star & Orions Bow in that Stewards Cup, puts him bang there. Orions Bow has been good to me this year, and though he may just be in the handicappers grip, I’d expect a better run than he produced last time at Ripon.
That race at Ripon was won by Nameitwhatyoulike, and he won it well. Don’t think he’s been unduly penalised for that win, and he’s impossible to leave out of the equation. Equally as appealing is the horse who was second that day, Intisaab, and although he’s on the verge of not getting in, there’ll always be The Silver Cup to keep him in mind for. Should he line up in that race, he’ll be on the shortlist along with the Kevin Ryan trained Big Time, who also holds an entry here.
Others who catch the eye include Rivellino, Shared Equity, Toofi, and Hoofalong. Of that quartet, preference would just be for Shared Equity @ 40’s and Toofi @ 25’s, who both look well overpriced to me, and are well on my radar.
As ever with races like this, the waters are muddied by horses you follow, and giving me some headaches, are old favourites Hillbilly Boy, Squats, Poyle Vinnie, Hoof It, Huntsmans Close, Move In Time, and Louis The Pious. I’ve been banging the drum for Hillbilly Boy for a while now, and initially he was just a bit costly for me. This was compounded when he won 2 on the bounce this season, and I wasn’t on…….”frustrating” doesn’t begin to cover it. I didn’t miss him the third time though on his latest win at Chester, catching the early morning 20’s. He should have been a massive winner for me that day, coming off the back of a big win for me the day before from Hoof It, but unfortunately I put too much on a nag in Ireland that day. That was not a good decision, and I badly want another good payout from him, and although he’s clearly in the form of his life, and (eventually) repaying my faith, I’m just a bit hesitant with him coming up the weights so quickly. He likes it here though, with a third in last years Silver Cup to his name, and he’s impossible to put a line through. As I said, Hoof It was a big winner for me last time, and based on that run, I’m loathed to desert him, but with my eyes everywhere I have to discount some of them. I’m hoping that that was the day for him, and not sure if he’ll have a repeat in him. Poyle Vinnie went so close for me in this last year, at 50’s, 66’s, and though delighted to nab the ew money, the win would have been fantastic. I think it’s safe to say he won’t be that price this time around, certainly not based on his decent effort at Chester on Saturday, and he looks a realistic contender. After digging out Huntsmans Close for the 2014 Silver Cup, I’ve given those winnings back and then some. He’s been a bit of a disappointment, and after a promising return at Goodwood, he ran no sort of race at Royal Ascot, and he’s left with a big question mark against him. I’m inclined to believe he’s better than though, whatever the excuses were, and I’ll keep him on my reserve list. Squats finally got me some returns last time in The Gigaset at Ascot, running a massive race in second at 33’s, and he owed me that, having never had much of a return from him. I’m a big fan though, and no surprise to see him progress again, but my enthusiasm is just tempered by his lack of consistency, and I’ll probably leave him this time. I’ve never caught Move In Time right either, but I remain a fan. I’m always interested in types like this, returning to handicaps, and although getting on a bit, he did run well for a long way at York last week. Last, but by no means least is Louis The Pious, a horse who’s been very good to me a few times. I wouldn’t normally be in a rush to bet an 8 year old for this, but despite his “no-show” at Ripon last time, where he took a fair few quid of mine with him, I’m going to have to give him another chance. He might struggle to get in anyway, but he’s plummeted down the weights, and his run (and ride) caught the eye at York last month. The winner of this in 2014, it might just be that he joins my shortlist for the consolation race, and I could easily see him add that to both his Gold Cup, and Royal Hunt Cup.
It goes without saying that I’d be happy to see a few of that lot sit it out, it would certainly make life easier, but a case could easily be made for each of them. Gun to my head, I’d like to be with Hillbilly Boy or Move In Time.
In the end though, I’ve got two very much in mind for this, and they are Lulu The Zulu, and Final Venture.
Lulu The Zulu at 40’s went straight into the notebook for this with an excellent run alongside Orions Bow at Hamilton, looking the winner for a long way. He’s another of those who’s not getting any younger, but he just looked the part last time, and from a trainer who went close in this last year, and being on a handy mark, he makes plenty of each way appeal. I’m at 40’s each way, along with some pennies at 44’s to 46’s.
Final Venture has been a model of consistency this year, and having won 4 times already, the only question mark against him is whether or not his latest rise will find him out. I’ve not actually bet him yet, but at 25’s, I’ll probably not hang about.
That’s more than enough for now, and with so many in there, I haven’t even scraped the surface, and there’ll no doubt be more than a “couple” of plots lurking in there
Lulu The Zulu 40’s and Final Venture 25’s for me then, and of the rest, Shared Equity at 40’s makes huge appeal. He’ll probably get bet as well, and I’ll hope that none of my old favourites make it on the day, as I said, it would certainly make life easier if they all sat it out.
GL
I bet squats at Ascot last time too but that was antepost ew 25- should have waited and got the 33’s on the day was kicking myself. He is 33-1 with Coral for this and I’ll hope he can go close again.
Great early look at the race Bobby.
It’s so hard to get into the Ayr Gold Cup now, you really need to be looking at horses rated over 100 to be sure of getting into the race.
Intisaab should have won last time I feel. I am biased because I was on him at 10/1 but it just seemed he was allowed to lose his position at a crucial stage before rattling home for second. He’s been better since they put cheekpieces on him this season but on 96 he’s on the cusp.
The lowest rated horse in last year’s renewal was rated 96 and the irony is that if Intisaab had won last time he would probably have sealed his position in the Ayr Gold Cup field.
Baccarat ran well in that same Intisaab and is a former winner of the race but he’s rated 109 now and holds an entry this weekend, so will be higher than when winning the race in 2014.
I had him in 2014 and Don’t Touch ante-post at 14/1 last year, so I am looking for a rare hat-trick this season. I had Dancing Star in the Stewards Cup and would happily stay with her but Andrew Balding has said that the spacing of the Haydock Sprint Cup and the Champions Sprint at Ascot is the preferred choice for her.
Personally, I would probably have gone for the Ayr Gold Cup with her, rather than mix it with the top brigade. There is plenty time next year to move to pattern company and I have never liked the transfer from Handicap straight to group 1.
Lochsong worked her way gradually to the Group 1 class and it did her no harm.
Interestingly, someone told me that comparison between Dancing Star and Lochsong was/is ridiculous and an insult to the 1992 winner. However, you can look back and see that Lochsong won the Ayr Gold Cup off 95 and Dancing Star is already rated 108 at this same point of her 4yo career.
Interesting that 83 got you into the 1992 Ayr Gold Cup. Not a snowball’s chance of getting in with that now.
I’ll have a study to see if anything stands out. Final Venture is one I am keeping an eye on as a much improved performer this year, now rated 100 and likely to get in, but the form of his narrow defeat last time looks bloody awful, with 17 subsequent runs, and every single one of them unplaced.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just had a bet on Raucous to win @ 18’s with 365
Backed him E/W at Goodwood and ran a great race from a bad draw to be a fast finishing third. The race before finished 2L second to the Tin Man recieving 5 lbs.
Interesting comments from Highclere’s Manager Harry Herbert after Goodwood –
” It was a fantastic effort from a three-year-old.It’s not easy and in many ways he lacks experience that those big powerful sprinters have got but he is improving rapidly this horse ”
” He might have one more run in this country before he heads to Australia because he is part of something called the Melbourne Syndicate where horses start in Britain and race here and then head down to Australia for their four-year-old campaigns and stay down there permanently. ”
“He is a grand horse and William has trained him to perfection. He always said he would get better as he gets older and that is what we are seeing.”
If the Ayr gold cup is that last race, he will have a serious chance.
Probably get nutted on the line by Louis The Pious mind you.
I remember the Lochsong Ayr gold cup. I was just a kid then and I recall John McCrick saying how “she couldn’t possibly win” because of the big drift on her before the race.
Then she bolted up, and I learnt not to trust adults after that.
Good opening post Venture and good luck with the picks.
I’m definitely with Botchy here and I think that the 18-1 available with Bet365 is massive, I thought he would be near the top of the market. I dont like betting antepost too often but this price is tempting.
I think Roger Varian’s Certificate is interesting if he gets the nod. Ostensibly a 7F horse he has given me the impression the last twice that the drop to 6F is within his compass.
He was well in command at the 6F stage in the first of his latest pair of wins and then at Goodwood over 7F it seemed as if he was running on fumes in the last half furlong.
He has proven big field form and has been able to travel well in behind to produce a winning run this past twice. The horse seems on the up and although Varian has talked of Listed glory being the aim, he also said that he doesn’t feel the horse is handicapped out of contention and mentioned a possible win in one of the big Autumn handicaps.
As low as 10/1 with Stan James, I’ve had a few quid on Certificate at 20/1 win only. I had him at 5/1 last time so he’s paid for his bet.
Certificate 20/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Great race preview as usual Bobby!!
I have bet two so far SHARED EQUITY and GLEN MOSS.
Both of which have ran a terrific race in big races this season GLEN MOSS behind Outback traveller at Ascot and is actually with a trainer that I think is in fine form at the moment.
SHARED EQUITY ran good behind Blaine at Epsom and then actually lead two out in the Ascot race won by Outback Traveller.I do keep looking at INTISAAB but I can’t bring myself to back it cos I think it always seems to be a little unlucky!!
Although I am happy with my 18’s on Raucous, I would have liked to have seen more support for him and I thought he would have came in a bit by now.
I am more encouraged by the support for Aeolus as I had bet him each way at 25-1 yesterday. Does anybody have any thoughts on him?
Terrific write-up Bobby, and this is just about my favourite flat race of the year.
I’ve gone through them at length, and could end up making a case for more than half
the field, but I’m going to put up two for very different reasons. The first ORIONS
BOW is fairly obvious. To say he has been progressive this year is an understatement,
going up 35lbs from April to August. Five wins on the bounce, followed by a very decent 2nd
giving 6lbs to Dancing Star, who is pretty much group class. I don’t think he ran his race last
time out race in the Great St Wilfred and I think David Nicholls will have him spot on for this.
I know you’ve done well with him Bobby, but I’m not so sure he is yet in the handicapper’s grip,
I think there’s more to come, so he’s my choice for this at 14/1.I’m also going to throw one in that is not so obvious. FLAMING SPEAR hasn’t
shown anything like the form of Orions Bow, but he was once thought of, and talked of, by
Kevin Ryan as a potential classic horse after his impressive maiden win at York in July 2014.
The plan mentioned was the Greenham and the 2000 Guineas. The wheels came off the barrow at the
Greenham, something wasn’t right and he was eased finishing plumb last. A group 1 at Longchamp
followed, (PRIX LE PARISIEN) where he disappointed. Ryan then tried him over further, 10f, and
that didn’t go to plan either. He came back out this year in April in a handicap at Newmarket,
where there was still confidence behind him, going off fav, he finished 2nd. He had one more run
this year at York in May, where Ryan brought him back to 6f for the 1st time since his maiden win
2 years ago. Again there was a great deal of confidence in him, again going off fav, in a 18 runner
handicap. He didn’t get competitive, and certainly wasn’t given a hard time by Robert Winston.You might well wonder why I’m interested in him with a string of disappointing results. The thing is
that Ryan still thinks a lot of this horse, and he must be showing something when he has been backed
significantly in his two runs this year. It’s a big leap of faith, but I think that a horse, once
considered up to Guineas level, running off a mark of 99 is worth considering. Ryan wouldn’t be throwing
him into a race like the Ayr Gold Cup unless he thought the horse still has the potential to be as good
as he was once thought. I’ve taken the 25/1 5 places with Willie Hill, I think he’s worth the gamble.I’ve just checked the prices on oddschecker, after posting above, and Hills have cut
FLAMING SPEAR to 16/1. There are still a few firms offering 25/1 at this time.Joined you on that BigG ew@25’s now Raucous is a n/r . I was told it was a good un about a month before York and big things were expected from him. His name has been staring at me since the books opened. Best of luck
Certificate is swerving this one, I presume they will be trying him at further than six. I feel this might well have suited him but we’ll never know.
It’s a sign of the times when you need to be rated 98 to scrape into an Ayr Gold Cup field.
Intisaab just missed out and is favourite for the Silver Cup at 10/1 early. He keeps running well and will surely be thereabouts.
With Certificate out I am relying on Nameitwhatyoulike. This fellow cost me when pipping Intisaab and then did me a favour when I backed him against hotpot Danzeno next time. He gets away quickly and should give hope for a few furlongs at least. The danger is that there will be ones snapping at his heels or coming late to mow him down. He seems a fair bet at 14/1. I can see Nameitwhatyoulike being a single figure price come the race time.
Growl is just far too short for me and if he wins so be it.
My other pick is Brando at 16/1. He ran a belter behind Outback Traveller over 6F when second in a huge field, and then won next time over 5F in Group 3 company. Beaten by Mecca’s Angel in Ireland is no disgrace and he was then a bit disappointing in the Nunthorpe but that was Group 1 company. Into a handicap again he has a big weight but he has improved this year and the stable know how to win this race.
My two picks are in stalls 4 and 8, so they will start two boxes along from the favourite in trap 6 in each direction.
That will do for me. Good luck everybody.
ps Just noticed that Certificate is in the 7F listed race at Newbury tomorrow and he is favourite.
Nameitwhatyoulike 14/1
Brando 16/1Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Luck doesn’t come into it Bobby
Because Shared Equity doesn’t run I have backed two others JOHNNY BARNES of Johhny G’s. First time in a handicap and also first time over six furlongs!! If the experiment works then hey ho happy days 28/1
And the other one is G FORCE which looked like being a superstar a while ago and ran really well behing The Happy prince last time out also 28/1 !!
Who knows how the draw will play out there does seem to be pace both sides and maybe after the Bronze Cup Friday we might know more bit i now have one drawn 11 and the other two drawn 17 and 18 so it will probably be low numbers!!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.