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Well the Waley-Cohin’s have done it again and Pulled THE YOUNG MASTER
out for the 2nd time. I doubt it will make much difference as I think
it’s long odds on that racing will be cancelled again.I think most bookmakers kept bets open for horses that had been pulled
out from the original date and re-entered for the rescheduled race.
Ladbrokes Betvictor and Corral certainly did. I know Coral gave the option
of taking your stake back after the first cancellation or letting it run.
If that’s the case with Ladbrokes this time, and they give the option to
take your stake back, I’ll be taking it this time. TYM’s price hadn’t
dropped anyway, so if he does appear at another rescheduled Welsh National
he will probably be about the same odds (16/1) and can be bet again.I don’t know what their plans will be if it is cancelled on Saturday. With the
weather that is forecast the course is going to take some time before it is
raceable.Previous winners Mountainous and Emperors Choice head my short-list.
From what they said this morning on ATR, it’s still odds-on racing taking place at Chepstow, only just though.Value Is EverythingI’ve been chipping away on Emperors Choice,
trainer in form and going conditions will suit as wellCharles Darwin to conquer the World
Previous winners Mountainous and Emperors Choice head my short-list.
From what they said this morning on ATR, it’s still odds-on racing taking place at Chepstow, only just though.Yes you are right Ginger, when I posted on Wednesday the racecourse
still was touch and go, but a heavy band of rain was forecast for
that night, I think 10mm was mentioned. Obviously they have missed
that amount, I hope it goes ahead, even if my bet is sailing down
the Suwanee
My bet on Cogry is still down as an ‘open bet’ on my Coral account; does that mean that it still stands for this Saturday?
Had a quick shufty at this today and have narrowed it down to the two Rebecca Curtis horses and Folsom Blue. The slight drawback with Bob Ford and Red Devil Lads is that they both like to lead but both should relish the anticipated heavy ground. Folsom Blue looked like he had retained his ability LTO after over a year off the track and if making the journey has ground and trip to suit. 41’s on Betfair and 33’s generally looks a decent enough EW chance.
I’ve had to back Bob Ford with these weather conditions and hope that Rececca can drive the horsebox round in circles to make him think he’s at Ffos Las. And Saroque because Liam is so good at getting horses to place in gruelling races.
I wonder if anyone down Chepstow way can give any update on how
things are looking at present. I don’t want to be a harbinger of
doom, but if the course is touch and go at the moment, there is
some heavy rain forecast for Friday morning and again early morning
on Saturday. Outwith that there is a fair smattering of consistent
light showers. Is the course at present in a good enough condition
to handle that?I’m just going by the weather forecasters, don’t shoot the messenger
I was just over the water from Cardiff on Wednesday and we had a dry day. Apart from the M5 oil spill. God that was a nightmare trying to get around!
Value Is EverythingI’m already with Cogry but might add Firebird Flyer. His record at local tracks Chepstow and Ffos Las is excellent and the ground is right. No wins yet at Chepstow but some good runs and a staying on third behind Tour Des Champs last time. Second behind Emperor’s Choice over 3m4f at Ffos Las two years ago.
Might get a place at a big price.
I’m struggling to separate 6 of them…
Benvolio – such a good runner up last year i have to consider him once more.
Portrait King – I’m going to stay loyal. We know he stays and the ground isn’t an issue. I’m just wondering if his good run in the becher was a horses for courses thing or if he’s down to a winning mark?
Red Devil Lads – been following for a while and is putting in some good efforts. Has he been put up enough now?
Return Spring – was a really likeable hurdler and I’ve been waiting for his big win over fences ever since he took to the bigger obstacles. I’m convinced he’ll stay, I’m just wondering if he wants it as heavy as it will be….
Woodford County – placed in all the right races last season and ground won’t be an issue. His finishing seventh in this off the same mark last year doesn’t worry me too much.
Tour Des Champs – has been very expensive to follow and naturally came good on the day i decided to leave him alone. Don’t want to make the same mistake this time, but i just wonder if he’s quite good enough?
Well …. I still have Cogry and Fourovakind running and have now backed Return Spring too so fingerscrossed !!
But I am hopeful rather than confident
Just having a look back and some high class horses have taken this race. Where did it all go wrong?
Tomorrow’s race looks competitive – which is exactly what bookmakers want – but where is the quality?
Cogry is probably the nearest thing to an improver but do you really want to back a horse who has fallen three times in his last eight runs at around 8/1 on what will almost certainly be atrocious ground?
You’re going to have to have something that loves the going
(meaning it can swim) and can grind out a result. I think
that UPSWING gets full points on both.He’s running off a career high mark of 139, but I think there’s
more to come from him. He was running on really well over 3m 3f
at Cheltenham last time out, only beaten by SAUSALITO SUNRISE
who would quite likely be fav if he were running in this. I like
to look for something that’s not towards the head of the market for
a bit of value, but I can’t get away from the fact that for me he
ticks all the boxes. I’ll settle for the 8/1, I can see his odds
nearly half that if JP really fancies his chances. If he drifts I’d
be a bit worried.I also think last year’s winner EMPEROR’s CHOICE won’t be far away
at the finish. Again, he is running off a career high mark, but this
has obviously been the target all year, and he showed in his return
this season at Haydock that he looks as good as ever, rallying well
to win the race. It didn’t do his handicap mark much good, but I can’t
see him out the places, and 11/1 e/w 5 places looks like a steal with
Paddy Power.Plenty of others you could make a case for, it’s a tough race. Best of
luck
Damn; Corals have just gone first 5 and my bets have been first 4. I knew I should have waited a bit.
Attritional race in prospect
Pinstickers time…Woodford County
FourofakindGood luck
(Moe, I wouldn’t trouble myself too much about that first 5 – might well be only 3 finishers)
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