Thyestes 2015

This has been the target for the much touted Djakadam for some time now, and he’ll make serious appeal to many. Especially as he could run off 10-9, should his stablemate, On His Own stand his ground. Mullins was quoted in The Racing Post as saying he asked Djakadam “a very unfair question” running him without a prep run before his flop in The Hennessy at Newbury. Only a few firms have the race priced up so far, with Djakadam not surprisingly heading the market, as low as 3’s with Paddy Power. He’s bound to be extremely popular, though even at that that price, he still clearly comes with a few risks. Yes, it was only his 4th chase, and he was coming off the back of a fall last time out, and tackling a large field for the first time……..but to me it was still a very disappointing run, and I’d still like to have seen him closer. There’s also the very real possibility that he’ll lump top weight, with On His Own, not a certain starter, and Foxrock due to take up his engagement on Sunday. Plenty of negatives then for a horse at 3’s at this stage. Very much in his favour though, is the race doesn’t look to have that much strength in depth, and should Foxrock, and On His Own, go elsewhere, then even off top weight, then should he even come close to justifying the hype, then he must go close. All the pre-race talk will surely be about him then, but there are some others lurking in there, for all Djakadam is my idea of the winner.

A lot will depend then on the decision surrounding On His Own. Mullins appeared to be very non committal to his participation, in his attempt to be the first ever horse to win it 3 times. He seems to be concerned at him having to lump 22lbs extra this time around, though he does acknowledge that he’s a Gold Cup horse, loves the track, and is built to do it. The temptation to go to The Hennessy on February 8th, must be very strong, certainly after his run in The Lexus, but I just have the feeling that he’ll head here. He’ll keep Djakadam on a lovely racing weight, and I think the temptation to make history as a 3 time winner of this might just sway them, and would also give him a longer break for The Gold Cup. Taking in this race last year didn’t do him any harm. Certainly doesn’t appeal around the 11-2 mark, with his participation in doubt, but I’d really fancy him for this should he turn up. I doubt I’d bet him at as short a price as that, at this stage, and as usual, I’ll no doubt try to find one at a bigger price, but should he head here, he’d leave so many out of the handicap, that the 11-2 would look very appealing.

Mullins has 2 others entered, in Dogora, and Abbey Lane. I think Dogora is a horse who doesn’t look that well treated, and a midfield finish in The Troytown, was followed by a crunching fall in The Paddy Power, and that’s enough to put me off. Abbey Lane makes some appeal though, certainly looking at his run in The Paddy Power. He’s a horse who continually comes up short around the 2 mile mark, where he’s done the majority of his racing, but upped to to 3 miles at Leapordstown he led the field a merry dance, and only weakened out of it in the closing stages. Like so many of them, it’s difficult to predict how the weights will look on the day, but 28’s about him looks very fair.

There were a few others who took in that Paddy Power Chase at Leapordstown, entered here, including Goonyella, The Job Is Right, My Murphy, and Groody Hill, who were all bang in contention approaching the home straight. I wouldn’t rule any of them out of this after their runs there, with not much more required, to again, go close here. Goonyella is a horse who I’ve kept on side a few times, but he is just getting slightly frustrating I suppose, though easy to forgive him his unseat at Aintree, and his return over hurdles at Punchestown was very encouraging. He just needs to find more at the business end, but I’ll be reluctantly leaving him alone for now. The novice, The Job Is Right, ran a great race that day, finishing 4th, and he was bang there all the way. He just lacked that final kick at the end, and even at this early stage of his career, he might need further. 16’s looks decent based on that last run, but I might just keep an eye on him this time, with the 4 miler at Cheltenham in mind for him. My main bet in this last year was Groody Hill, but off the back of a long lay off, he emptied very quickly heading for home, eventually pulling up. He’s returned a different horse this season though, finishing first past the post (later disqualified ) in a competitive handicap hurdle, before doing me proud, making the frame in The Troytown. Gave his all last time, and he looks, with his ability clearly retained, that he could go much better this year, and he’s on the shortlist. My Murphy, last seasons Irish National aside, always seems to give his all, and though he rarely wins, he’s never far away, and he’s difficult to write off. Like his run in The Paddy Power, he just faded near the end in The Troytown, but both those runs give plenty of encouragement for a test like this. He can’t be far off a much deserved win.

Vasco Du Mee, Rogue Angel, and Ipsos Du Berlais also took in The Paddy Power. Vasco Du Mee, and Rogue Angel both pulled up in that race, never getting dangerous, and both those runs would usually put me off them for this. Both horses however, showed a bit more spark at Punchestown on Sunday, making the frame over 3 miles behind Portait King. Admittedly, that race wasn’t the level of a Paddy Power, or a Thyestes, but it was something like a return to form for both of them. Vasco Du Mee looked to be going the right way over fences until The Paddy Power, and should he line up here, then I could see him surprising a few, without maybe actually landing it. Certainly difficult to write off one from the Elliot yard in a race like this, and he’s another I’ll keep an eye on. Rouge Angel was a horse I’ve backed a few times to lay in running, but he hasn’t looked the same horse this year, and even off the back of his run at Punchestown, I’ve still got those initial reservations about him. Ispsos Du Berlais, was a horse who I thought would turn out to be top class, but things haven’t went to plan for him. Extremely temperamental…..to say the least, he did at least show a lot more at Leapordstown, only fading coming out the back straight. He displayed much more enthusiasm that day, and I’ll not be writing him off as quickly this time. Part of me wants to take an each way chance at the 33’s, as he’s come nicely down the weights, and it’s just over a year since he finished 3rd in the 2013 Paddy Power. He’s risky……but tempting

Ipsos, and Rogue Angel, are 2 of the 4 Gigginstown entries, along with Make A Track, and Wounded Warrior. Wounded Warrior, although put in his place by Gilgamboa last time, went down narrowly to Don Poli at Cork in November, which reads well, before taking care of a decent field at Navan in December. This would be a big step up in trip over fences for him, but he did make the frame over this trip as a novice hurdler. He looks to have bags of potential, and just remains to be seen whether they throw him into a real slog like this, at his young age. I like the look of Make A Track for this as well. Showed in The Leapordstown Handicap last year, that a big field handicap wouldn’t phase him, and he’s continuing to slip down the weights. I still haven’t made my mind up whether just short of 3 miles is his ideal trip, and he does have a no show in The Irish National to his name, but he’s returned this season in decent form, including a win a low key hurdles race, and he’s certainly a danger. He ran respectably over 2 miles 3 over Christmas, and that should have him spot on for this.

Behind Make A Track that day was Toon River. He caught my eye last season with a win at Gowran Park, with Abbey Lane in second, and the very decent Operating a mile back in third. That would give him a chance here, but he’s not really went on since then, and on the whole I’d have to leave him, though that win at Gowran Park is hard to shake off.

French Import Sadler’safleure had a disappointing start for Jessica Harrington on his first run at Thurles, but he stepped up really well at Punchestown last month, only finding the very capable Grand Jesture too good, with a strong field, including Foxrock behind him. Not seen enough of him to take a definite stance, but that run last time was encouraging. Down the field that day at Punchestown was Oscars Business. He, on the face of it, off the back of that run, looks to have his work cut out here, but off only 3lbs higher, it doesn’t take too much imagination to see him repeat his excellent third in this last year. Might just be this has been the plan for him all along, and at 25’s something of a forgotten horse.

The winner of this in 2013, Jadanli, also holds an entry. Now a 13 year old, he’s not done that much since, but he was still in front when falling 3 out at Cork last week, and though not the hottest race, I got the impression he wasn’t finished with that day. A big ask for a veteran, but he’ll be off the mark he won off in this, and though he’ll maybe find a few youngsters with too much near the finish, he showed me enough last time to see him run a big race at 40’s.

The Tony Martin trained Gallant Oscar, third in the market at 6’s, looks impossible to ignore. Running very well over hurdles of late, and looks the type to land a big chase, especially off his current mark. The one drawback with him would be his jumping over the larger obstacles, but should he take his chance, I could see him pushing Djakadam as the favourite.

The JP McManus owned Like Your Style, showed a bit more last time in a veterans race at Limerick, with Jadanli behind him that day. That seemed to be the exception though, rather than the norm, and he’s a risky proposition with so many disappointing runs recently. His poor show in The Troytown would also put me off him, and though the ability is there, I’d be more interested in Sword Fish, who’s also owned by JP. Real possibility he’ll be well out the weights, but seems in good heart, winning last time, and only found the impressive Embracing Change too good for him at Fairyhouse in November, with many of these behind him that day. Maybe stretching it to see him land this, but I’ve seen worse 25-1 shots, and would at least expect a run for my money. He had Thelobstercatcher in second when he last time, who’s showed some ability in the past, and as he comes down the weights looks nailed on to land a decent staying chase before the seasons out. He’s another a way down the bottom of the weights, along with Sword Fish, and I don’t think he’ll disgrace himself at all, but probably not the same kind of appeal as the JP horse. One for later in the season I think.

Djakadam or On His Own are my idea of the winner, but prices will probably stop me betting them.

Of those at a price, on another day, I might have already taken a chance on Groody Hill, Ipsos Du Berlais, and especially Abbey Lane.

GL