Great Yorkshire Chase 2015

Bit of a risky proposition this race for me, as only bet one winner in the race in recent years, Simon, way back in 2007. Even riskier to do a write up, with it’s past record of getting called off, and looking at this weeks forecast as well……but I’ll give it a bash anyway.

One of my long term hopes for The Grand National, is <b>Night In Milan</b>, and no doubt a strong showing here will see his odds plummet for Aintree. There is just the suspicion though that they’ll see this race as ideal for him, and strike while they can. His seasonal re-appearance round here was very encouraging, just going down to <b>Grandads Horse</b>. It would be a big ask to land this, then defy a hike in the weights to score at Aintree, so the sensible call would be to keep him in mind for Aintree, and swerve him for this……but at 16’s, he looks seriously tempting. I’ve already added him to a Mug 31 at 20’s. He certainly loves it round here, and that’s a big factor. Grandads Horse is no forlorn hope either, and that win here last time, came off the back of another victory at Ascot. Only up another 6lbs for that Doncaster win, and from what I seen that day, it might not be enough to stop him being there at the business end. Although he just held off Night In Milan the last time, a wins a win, and another who we know will act at the track. His win at Ascot was very convincing, and the 25’s available on him looks generous.

Another long term fancy of mine for Aintree, is the Venetia Williams trained <b>Renard</b>. Very much like Night In Milan, I’m stuck in a quandry with him, and got to weigh up whether this, or The National is the #1 target. He ran a screamer here last March, behind Night In Milan, and off the same mark here, even with Aintree on the horizon, he’s the first one bet, I’ve had a go at the 25’s. I’ve already bet him for Aintree, and a win here would certainly see me lay some off. His stamina might have to be taken on trust as far as Aintree is concerned, but no such worries here, and if ready to go, then he looks a player.

Philip Hobbs has the very decent <b>If In Doubt</b> as the second favourite, and having mixed it in pretty decent company over hurdles last year, he looks impossible to leave out of the equation here, especially having demonstrated his wellbeing over the larger obstacles with a win at Catterick last time. Slight concern that he didn’t start off this season as well as could be expected, but still clearly an exciting prospect for these big staying chases. Hard to knock the market support for him, and he looks on a decent mark. Was quite taken with him last year, and actually hoped they’d keep him over hurdles for another year, thought he looked a prime candidate for some top prizes, so the decision to go chasing may be significant. He’s too big at 12’s, and has to be bet. Not far off the head of the market is another Hobbs novice, who’s eventually got his act together this season, in <b>Royal Player</b>. He’s a lightly raced 6 year old, and he’s on a 3 timer. Questionable what he’s beaten the last twice, but it was an experienced enough field he beat at Ludlow, though not sure whether or not the field he beat at Musselburgh last time, merited a 10lb rise, and that might just be enough to stop him here, and as low as 8’s with Corals, that looks a bit skinny. I think, of the 2, I’d much rather be with If In Doubt.

Heading the weight is good old <b>Medermit</b>. Getting on a bit I suppose, but it’s along time since he contested a handicap like this, and with him having more or less quelled fears that a trip like this was beyond him, then he looks to have at the very least, place claims. His runs so far this season suggest a drop in class may be exactly what he needs, and he’s finally getting back to a mark he performed so well off in the past. I’m always interested in horses making a return to handicaps after a lengthy period, and I don’t think he’ll be 12’s for long. I’d love to see him go well here.

<b>Present View</b>, and <b>Attaglance </b>are old adversaries, with Present View just coming out on top at The Festival last year. That doesn’t tell the whole story though, as Attaglance would have won but for a moment of madness from his jockey. A rare step up in trip for both horses, but I think they’ve both showed enough in the past to see that it shouldn’t be beyond them. Normally I’d sway towards Attaglance of the 2, but with him being so ground dependent, and a very risk ante-post proposition, I’d rather be with Present View. Both horses however, may be best watched until The Festival.

<b>Hadrians Approach</b> just got the better of <b>Godsmejudge</b> in the hotly contested bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown last April. Hadrians was a horse I had really high hopes for, but jumping issues seemed to hold him back, though I thought he had turned the corner with that Sandown win. He was too bad to be true though, on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham last month, and he looks like one for maybe later in the season. Though hardly a forlorn hope for this, if on a going day. I’d just favour Godsmejudge ahead of him for this, though he’s yet another who might not want to blow his handicap mark with the weights for Aintree getting released in a few weeks. He’ll certainly face Hadrians on better terms, and the trainer can get them ready first time, so if they’re serious with him for this, then the standout price with Paddy Power of 25’s <!– s:shock: –><!– s:shock: –> would have to be considered.

The Paul Nicholls trained, <b>Easter Day</b>, the current favourite, looks to deserve the support, certainly based on his defeat last season of subsequent RSA Winner, O’Faolains Boy. Personally, I’d liked to have seen him win at Newbury last time, and he also holds an entry at Cheltenham on Friday, but he’s clearly got a fair bit of potential, and from a yard in form, he’s bound to get continual support at the week goes on. His stablemate, <b>Cowards Close</b> also took in that race where Hadrians Approach flopped, and though he made third that day, the winner, Benbane Head, hardly franked the form since. He did have Saturdays big winner, Samstown, a mile behind him at Cheltenham that day, but I’d be inclined to not look too much into that, with both races differing vastly. Easter Day looks the classier of the 2, and I’d just give him the verdict over his stablemate.

The Jonjo O’Neil yard is slowly coming back to form, with a few winners lately, including at Kempton last week, courtesy of <b>Lost Legend</b>. Fairly consistent, not out the 2 in his last 4 runs, and only up 2lbs for that last win. Lots to like about him, and though he went off the boil a bit last spring, I’m willing to forgive him that run of poor form, and would suggest that the 20’s with Betvic looks very decent. This might just be the time to catch him.

Always good to see a smaller yard land a big one, and the Dianne Sayer trained, <b>Bailys Concerto</b> attempts to get back on track here, having racked up a 5 timer recently. Absolutely no shame in finishing out the frame against the likes of Splash Of Ginge, and Hunt Ball last time, and I think, although understandably, well up in the weights after that 5 timer, he looks to have enough ability to justify the hike. He just looks risky trip wise, but sure to give supporters a bit of fun at 25’s, and not the biggest shock to see him make the frame.

<b>Indian Castle</b> looks to be out of sorts this season, since leaving Donald McCains, though he does always attract a fair bit off support, which might suggest the ability of old remains. He looks risky though on his last 2 runs, and I just can’t enthuse about him. <b>Fairy Rath</b> won nicely enough last time, but he’s probably not faced a field like this before, and is another with questions to answer regarding the trip. I’d have to leave those 2 for now, along with <b>Caulfields Venture</b>, who was well beaten, when refusing at Sandown in November. Caulfields is a horse who I’ve actually bet a few times, but he folded too tamely that day to consider him in a tough heat like this. Another horse I’ve bet a few times is <b>Buck Mulligan</b>. Seems a bit harsh to go up 5lbs for finishing second to Al Alpha at Cheltenham last time, but he did show his better side that day, and he is consistent on the whole. Although well beaten in 4th at Cheltenham in October, he didn’t lose any face in having The Young Master, Charingworth, and Balbriggan ahead of him. The yard can land these big prizes now and then, and though the 20’s looks about right just now, I can see him battling away as they come up that straight.

<b>Vino Griego</b> is another who’s looked out of sorts this season, but he can throw in the odd big run, and though I might be better waiting for him to bounce back round Cheltenham, rather than here, off his current mark, he does catch my eye. He’s managed to come down the weights very quickly, and will be off the same mark as he finished second in a tough race on Grand National Day…..very interesting at 33’s, though I would have to forgive him some proper howlers.

<b>Mr Moonshine</b> has been a big disappointment his last 2 runs, and I can’t have him off the back of those. He safely gets into The Grand National off 144, and they may be keeping him under wraps until then.

From Ireland, <b>Yes Tom</b>, and <b>Glenquest </b>are both possibles. Yes Tom continued on an upward curve last season, but his new mark seemed to find him out last year in The Scottish National at Ayr, when quietly fancied, and on the evidence of his seasonal debut, he might just need to come down a couple of more pounds. Wouldn’t be writing him off as the season progresses, but not for me here. Glenquest nearly broke my heart in The Welsh National, and he looked to have it in the bag, before finding the late kick from Emperors Choice and Benvolio too much for him. He deserves a change of luck, as do connections, who must have thought they had it in the bag as well…….but there’s just the thought that that was his day. Not totally out of it though, off only a 1lb rise, and if I can’t back the winner, I hope it’s him that lands it.

Of the fancied runners, I really do like the look of If In Doubt, and I just can’t find too much to be negative about him. He’s the bet, though Medermit looks solid each way dropping down in class, with his ability seemingly retained.

As usual though, I’m looking for a price as well, and I’ve taken a chance then on Renard, at the 25’s. I’ll probably chance Night In Milan as well at the 16’s.

Of the outsiders, Vino Griego really appeals at 33’s, but I’ll probably wait until the final decs for him, and hope he’s still around 25’s at that stage. Though there’s also a good chance I’ll have a moment of clarity, and leave him alone, and switch him with even more on If In Doubt, or Medermit.

GL