Paddy Power Gold Cup 2015

Nice one, Bobby.

I’m very keen on Oscar Rock here and think him excellent value at 20s. He promised much as a Bumper winner, but never really delivered on it over hurdles. But headgear and fences seem to have worked the oracle. He’s 3 from 5 over fences. Second on his chasing debut, he’s arguably unlucky to be unbeaten since, after jumping into the winner Top Gamble, and coming down 3 out at Ayr.

I was very impressed with him on his seasonal debut win at Market Rasen where, characteristically, he travelled strongly before forging clear. He’s been raised 8lbs for that to 155 and his trainer, M Jefferson said post-race that the Paddy Power would likely be his target.

Apache Stronghold off 153 would be a strong selection if he were to run, but I’d guess he’ll go to Down Royal and/or the John Durkan. Whenever the penny drops that the vast majority of the horses in the Ryanair market will be running in the Gold Cup or Champion Chase, that 33/1 will be a thing of the past.

Well done on your Arc winner Joe, by the way! Great stuff

Steeplechasing wrote:

Thanks, Tommy. Good to see you sticking with Apache Stronghold, though you’ll be pounded by those who believe in the Meade Festival Jinx.

And your point about the Ryanair is a good one: each year Mr Mullins makes things increasingly difficult for ante-post punters at a meeting that – touch wood – has provided me with a fairly reliable financial boost these past five years or so through ante-post betting. Unfair to place any blame on Willie, but his strength in depth has seriously diluted my enjoyment of digging out the big priced ones.

Going back to AS, he seems to have run decent races over longer trips, and I wonder if they might try him at 3 miles more often?

The Meade festival Jinx is a funny one. I personally don’t pay much heed to it as in recent years his record has been quite dent, and plenty of his runners have performed well. Very Wood was disappointing last year but he had big runs from Road To Riches, Apache Stronghold and Wounded Warrior. Ned Buntline didn’t disgrace himself either. I’m guessing Meade targets the spring more now than he used to, as at one point he would mop up early season races before tailing off a bit after Christmas.

On Mullins, and ante post punting, I personally don’t find it to be an issue. Maybe I’ve just been lucky in the past three or four years but I feel it’s usually quite obvious by Christmas the route his horses are going to go, and if you can figure it out you’re in a good position.

Back to Apache Stronghold. I think he stays 3m, but he’s just not as good as the top 3m unfortunately. It wouldn’t be surprised to see him take in the Lexus and/or Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown and he’d run well in those races. But I go back to the day Don Poli beat him, where Apache came alongsides travelling well, and hit the front with a fine jump at the last, only for Don Poli to shake himself and ultimately win comfortably.

In the JLT, I thought he was a clear second best on the day. Vautour put in a freakish performance and Apache Stronghold was the only horse who even threatened to go with him. He almost paid for these efforts when just holding off Valseur Lido for 2nd. Had Vautour not been in the race I think Apache would have won with daylight back to Valseur Lido.

Going by his Moriarty win, 2m 5f looks ideal for him. The Gold Cup trip would probably stretch him, and what’s more, the Ryanair looks completely lacking in depth.

SPLASH OF GINGE 20/1 for me here loves it around here

TomBarkley87 wrote:

Ptit Zig’s been pencilled in for the Amlin at Ascot, but with Nicholls’ initial target for the race Far West on the sidelines and another string to his bow Sound Investment likely capped to the hilt after Aintree, could he be rerouted? I think he could run a race off 157, especially if you take his defeat of Josses Hill last season literally.

He’s also entered this weekend at Down Royal, but that’s meant to be the starting point for Saphir Du Rheu. I can’t imagine both making the trip for the same race. Any word on his intended running and I’ll be hitting the 20/1.

Ptit Zig takes up the Down Royal engagement. Ignore all of the above

I do find Annacotty an interesting runner however, although we’d need a wet one. That and a run for a new yard is always questionable when backing.

Thanks VTC

This could potentially be an outstanding renewal of the race.

Only three horses competed off the 150 mark or greater when Caid Du Berlais won last year – Johns Spirit, Oscar Whisky and Edgardo Sol – but a plethora of unexposed, quality horses have stood their ground at this stage – let’s hope that remains the case come Saturday.

The winning mark has varied in recent years, but Johns Spirit (2014), Hidden Cyclone (2013) and Al Ferof (Won 2012) have all hit the frame off 156, 152, and 159 respectively in recent years.

I generally look for a 6YO / 7YO, second season chaser, rated in the 140s.

One horse that stands out is General Ransom. He hasn’t looked back since reverting to the bigger obstacles, and was a model of consistency and gradual progression last year. His two chase efforts at Cheltenham have yielded a win and place, the latter when chasing home Irish Cavalier at The Festival (beaten 3L, 15lb better off). He was arguably OTT at Sandown when well beaten by Cocktails At Dawn, but on a line through Howlongisafoot (whom he beat over the same CD earlier in the campaign), he clearly didn’t give his true running.

Cocktails At Dawn is unbeaten in two starts since a tactical change by connections, and duly romped home at Sandown on his final start last term and on seasonal debut at Chepstow. He has gone up 8lb for that success and, as a result, has passed the 150 threshold, but looks a improving animal. Prior to his average showing at The Festival (behind Irish Cavalier & General Ransom) Nicky Henderson said “Golden Hoof has got to give weight to Cocktails At Dawn but they could easily be handicapped the other way round”. He is obviously held in some regard by connections.

Of the others, Present View is 1lb lower than when third in this race last year, Kings Palace is open to any amount of improvement, while Sound Investment will do well to win off 159 – the same mark Al Ferof won off three years ago.

I backed Cocktails At Dawn for this race prior to his seasonal return, but I’m going to side with General Ransom and Kings Palace on the day. Cocktails At Dawn will find it difficult to dominate this field but is one to keep an eye on this season, while Kings Palace must prove he has the toe for this. However, the fact that he is well fancied for a race steeped in family tradition speaks volumes.

Josh Gifford trained the last dual winner of this race when Bradbury Star triumphed in 1993 & 1994, and I think the Nick Gifford trained General Ransom can go very close.