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Most Grand National winners don’t have the same scope for further improvement that the progressive 8 year old Many Clouds has. It’s precisely the fact so many punters are put off by stats like this that makes Many Clouds a good value bet @ 25/1.
The last 8yo to win was also deemed progressive, Bindaree, but he went up 11lbs, was beaten 40L off 7lbs higher (MC territory) the following year and had to come back down another 9lbs to win again.
The one before that, Party Politics, won off 153 and went up 9lbs for it. He was PU in his next two runs before returning to winning form off his new mark and went into the next National off 166 and was sent off 7/1f (!). That, I presume is where many people see Many Clouds’ future. Party Politics was PU in what was the void National. He did win the following season’s Rehearsal Chase off 159 but didn’t run again that season and never won again off lower marks.
I’m more inclined to believe Many Clouds will be campaigned with the 2017 National in mind rather than next year’s. I reckon a year off to rest, recuperate enjoy life and return with a hurdles campaign ahead of the national could see him get back in off the same or even a lower mark.
if he were mine, that would be the plan.
When you get older you tend not to aim at things in two years time but seize the moment. I don’t think Mr Hemmings would like anything more than having a dual National winner [tempted to say ‘young man’ in my best Harry Enfield old lady voice]….
Fair point, moehat. Age is a matter of perspective, though. I don’t consider myself old but many others might!
I’m more inclined to believe Many Clouds will be campaigned with the 2017 National in mind rather than next year’s. I reckon a year off to rest, recuperate enjoy life and return with a hurdles campaign ahead of the national could see him get back in off the same or even a lower mark.
if he were mine, that would be the plan.
Don’t agree with that. I believe you have to run your horses when they are in form and at present MC is in top nick. OK next season he may not be, but a season off and then a hurdling campaign running in 30 grand handicaps, before another tilt at the National in 2 years time, is not for this horse. So much can happen in them 2 years. I think a similar route to this season should be fine, but probably missing the Gold Cup if they think the race will be that strong that he has small chance of picking up decent prize money. Maybe even an entry in the Lexus over Christmas. You don’t have to run and will depend on how he comes out of the Hennessy (if he goes that route).
So are we of the belief that Grand National winners don’t win any more races because of the toll the race takes on the horse or because of the way they are campaigned after winning ?
It used to be my belief that the RSA Chase at Cheltenham ruined horses but the last few years seem to have buried that theory!!I would say more the way they are campaigned than the toll of the race. In the last 10 years the three 9 year olds who won the race you could argue improved the season after.
Mon Mome followed up by placing in next season’s Gold Cup
Comply Or Die was second in next season’s renewal but under 11lbs more
Hedgehunter was second in both the next season’s Gold Cup and Grand National again carrying 11lbs extra.The other winners were 10+ so room for improvement was going to be minimal especially under the increased rating. The one horse it probably did take its toll on was Ballabriggs.
So I would say age rather than anything. MC is only 8 and will carry 1lb more maximum in next year’s and future GNs. The dream is definitely on and the more I think about it the 25/1 is an outstanding price. As has been said on here, it may be the toll of the race that scuppers this dream but I would not say that this is the norm for a GN winner.
They went 25/1 the field only 2 months ago for this years race after the weights release. Why anyone would want to take 25/1 12 months before the race is baffling.
They went 25/1 the field only 2 months ago for this years race after the weights release. Why anyone would want to take 25/1 12 months before the race is baffling.
I agree that now is not the time to place a bet. I waited until October or so last year and still got 33/1 on Rocky Creek. OK it didn’t pan out for him but had he done better in The Hennessey, he would surely have shortened in price a long time before he eventually did.
That’s as early as I would be thinking of placing a bet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I thought the race was quite a pulsating watch on television even allowing for C4`s odd angles.Some of that might have been due to immediate concern about Balthazar King but even so. Many Clouds was a really fine winner. I thought the lack of support for him was mainly ground related and the supposition that Trevor Hemmings, not being in his early thirties, would have run him whatever. I was happy enough with how it was going for my selections Rocky Creek, Cause of Causes, Saint Are and Alvarado midway.
I
m sure if it all fell right for Rocky Creek he could do very well. Im wondering if going left handed is an issue for him now apart form the other foibles. I thought Cause of Causes and Alvarado would both lack the class but would run on well and come from yards in very good form.(Finbarr OBriens recent form had caught my eye) and I wasn`t too disappointed with their efforts. Saint Are did very well but it was a very scruffy round of jumping, lucky to survive the first as well as his error at Bechers and got in too close to too many.He was moved from a yard who were and probably still are having a hapless time of it to one that seems to be misfiring a bit. Still plenty off upside for him if he continues to thrive.I thought some of those ridden being from out the back made the most of their chances. A great running on seventh from old 20 furlong horse Tranquil Sea in particular. Soll was reported as breaking blood vessel, , Rocky Creek lost a shoe and Court by Surprise must have been wondering why he was running in April.
On a point of handicapping, some of those who made the final 40 seemed to be keeping out better horses due to the handicapper having overreacted to wide margin wins on heavy ground. I`d like to see a cap imposed on how much a horse can be put up for a win
Oliver Sherwood has said that The Grand National is the priority for Many Clouds next season. He stated that because The Gold Cup and The Grand National are closer together next year, it is going to be impractical to run in both races.
He hasn’t totally ruled out the Gold Cup but, at this stage, the National is said to be his main target. It also sounds like another tilt at The Hennessey is on the cards.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With the Shergar Cup on the horizon this Saturday and the prospect of six glorified greyhound race handicaps on the menu, it is time to push that particular plate of excrement sandwiches to one side and focus on a more distant but infinitely more appetising and lucrative betting opportunity.
Many Clouds is back in fine fettle and being targeted at The Hennessey and The Grand National as his two main targets this season. That seems a very sensible decision and considering that he won the National this year with his trainer feeling he wasn’t quite at his peak, he looks a good bet to follow up given a more targeted campaign and with further improvement still a possibility.
We don’t need to fret about the weights coming out or whether he will actually get in the race. We know he will have top weight but he has already carried a big weight to victory. People will look at the weights when they are published and try to look for the usual “handicap snip” and get involved on that one, but I rarely recall these things coming off and I’ll side with the class act when he’s available at 25/1.
I reckon 16/1 is what he should be at most for the moment and you just know that come the day he will start about 8/1 or so, with money inevitable for the reigning champion. Only injury can stop him lining up in my opinion and at 25/1 that’s worth the risk. A winning re-appearance would see his odds reduce and you know that if he manages to land the Hennessey his price will go right down.
It is arguable how long you can wait before taking the plunge, as he could sit at 25/1 for ages in theory but only two firms are offering that price and there seems little prospect he would actually go bigger.
Shergar Cup
Many Clouds 25/1 Grand National
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I like it! You can never start to early on the National, Steve.
It sounds crazy to say, but I’m not convinced that the 2015 Grand National was fought out by particularly well-handicapped horses. You can never get a ‘weak’ renewal of the race, but handicap snip The Druid’s Nephew fell, Aintree lover Balthazar King came to grief and Jonjo rued an interrupted prep for beaten favourite Shutthefrontdoor.
Apart from Alvarado, who got the classic Moloney ride for fourth, the first four looked quite exposed. Many Clouds was hammered in the weights for winning the Hennessy and Pillar, then finished an exhausted sixth in a particularly gruelling Gold Cup. Notoriously poor jumper Saint Are got second despite a terrible mistake at the 22nd. He was running from his highest mark in more than two years. Third Monbeg Dude had plateaued as a staying chaser, so his proximity doesn’t give the form a golden tint either. I’m certainly not looking at the result and thinking Many Clouds has enough in hand to win it again.
The only one of last year’s bunch that stands out to me is Shutthefrontdoor. His preparation went against all the Grand National trends suggesting you need a full season to get there in peak shape. His performance went exactly as feared – moved like a winner until the last half mile, then emptied dramatically. Another year and a better prep will help him.
I expect he’ll run in the Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle at the start of the season, stay on for a place and get trimmed for the big one. 33/1 is worth taking now imo.
Horses making there debut in this race got a great recent record i be going for one of those.But not sure who yet.
With the Shergar Cup on the horizon this Saturday and the prospect of six glorified greyhound race handicaps on the menu, it is time to push that particular plate of excrement sandwiches to one side and focus on a more distant but infinitely more appetising and lucrative betting opportunity.
Many Clouds is back in fine fettle and being targeted at The Hennessey and The Grand National as his two main targets this season. That seems a very sensible decision and considering that he won the National this year with his trainer feeling he wasn’t quite at his peak, he looks a good bet to follow up given a more targeted campaign and with further improvement still a possibility.
We don’t need to fret about the weights coming out or whether he will actually get in the race. We know he will have top weight but he has already carried a big weight to victory. People will look at the weights when they are published and try to look for the usual “handicap snip” and get involved on that one, but I rarely recall these things coming off and I’ll side with the class act when he’s available at 25/1.
I reckon 16/1 is what he should be at most for the moment and you just know that come the day he will start about 8/1 or so, with money inevitable for the reigning champion. Only injury can stop him lining up in my opinion and at 25/1 that’s worth the risk. A winning re-appearance would see his odds reduce and you know that if he manages to land the Hennessey his price will go right down.
It is arguable how long you can wait before taking the plunge, as he could sit at 25/1 for ages in theory but only two firms are offering that price and there seems little prospect he would actually go bigger.
Shergar Cup
Many Clouds 25/1 Grand National
Shaping up nicely so far.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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