Grand National 2015

No need for the snide comments, steeplechasing, and you’re not reading my comments fully. Or perhaps I’m not communicating clearly enough.

Many Clouds was very much on my radar until Friday night and, like Comply Or Die, I’m bemused that I didn’t back him. But the bottom line is that I’ve been studying form – deluding myself if that’s how you want to put it – for over 40 years and doing very nicely at it, especially in the Grand National, and there were others in the race with better chances but his chances were better than those that finished behind him.

Surely we can express our differing opinions without descending to insults. I only came back to this forum the other day after a long absence. It will be a while before I’m back.

Maurice wrote:

But my argument is based on what he actually achieved yesterday. I’ve concluded the race fell into his lap. He won’t have anything more to carry next year in broad terms but other horses will have less in comparison.

I admit the weather conditions was a dry week leading up to the National, and although they vowed never to have it as firm as Mr Frisk’s National (1990) I bet the conditions was as firm as they let it. Officially the going was Good to Soft (Good in places) 6.6

Many Clouds the 21st eight year old to win since it turned into a handicap in 1843 was the fourth highest weighted eight year old ever. Only Vanguard (1843), Cortoluin (1867) and Royal Mail (1937)carried more as an eight year old, and the last two carried 11-13 now outside the weight range.

On the Official Rating side he was 1 pound well in since winning in January, showing that he was capable.

On the jumping side, he never touch a twig and seemed to have natural ability.

Next year, the conditions might be totally different, but he was very hard to pass.

Maurice, you must have been away from here for a long time if you think I’m the type to make snide comments or insult people.

You got a straight response on the, to me, ridiculous assertion ‘I’ve concluded the race fell into his lap’. Lauded in most quarters as one of the best GN performances in recent history, a top class young horse in a fast-run race gives 17lbs and a beating to an in-form Aintree-loving runner-up, followed home by a Welsh National winner, an Irish National winner, last year’s 4th in the GN (all getting weight), jumping soundly throughout, leading a long way from home and staying on bravely at the end, with no significant incidents in the race, and you, with 40 years of form study behind you and after further extensive post-race analysis conclude that the race ‘fell in his lap’. Seriously?

Someone is deluded here. If it’s not you, it must be me.

If you’ve also concluded that after some ‘tough love’ on this forum, the place is not for you, well, good luck. There are many interesting and skilled people posting here. We all have our faults and foibles, but insulting newcomers, or prodigals, isn’t generally one of them.

I would say calling someone who offers a perfectly reasoned opinion ‘deluded’ insulting. I said at the start people wouldn’t like what I had to say and that has been borne out. But let me counter your assessment of the beaten horses (although I felt I’d already done so).

Purely on high ratings, it is one of the better race performances. But what if The Druids Nephew had won by 10 lengths? It would still be one of the better performances because he was highly rated to start with. Handicap performances, in my opinion, should be judged on by how much those involved performed in advance of their official mark. You will probably see this in the Free Handicap this week. The chances are they will finish fairly closely grouped and most will be rated 100+. Does that make the winner an outstanding prospect? Unlikely. If they finish strung out like washing that might be a different story.

Going into the race, Saint Are was nowhere near handicapped to get that close. As I said, I backed him in the race two years ago so I know his form. He had to win impressively last time just to get in and he has improved yet again. All credit to his trainer. Yes, he has good course form and people were happy to back him on that basis but so did others in the race and they got nowhere. Monbeg Dude was handicapped to run well and did so but he was asked to give a better horse – and equally well handicapped one – a long start. He might be a Welsh National winner but he’d need to be half a stone lower to win an Aintree one. Shutthefrontdoor was not well handicapped on his Irish national form. he was a ‘potential’ horse and proved it by outrunning his new mark.

You say there were no significant incidents in the race. Wasn’t The Druids Nephew’s departure a significant incident? Balthazar King’s fall? Ballycasey’s being brought down? Even Al Co (a Scottish national winner so a potential winner in your eyes) being hampered out of it at the first? I’m sorry but there are more holes in your argument than in a colander. The bottom line is that a lot of things needed to happen for Many Clouds to win. That was probably why I ended up looking elsewhere (The Druids Nephew, First Lieutenant, eg) for the winner.

I watched the race with the family. My brothers have been studying racing for longer than me and do nicely too. The first thing we agreed on at the end of the race was that it was brilliant that Many Clouds had won. This was a horse which had won the Hennessy and the Gold Cup trial. He wasn’t a year-long plot like Shutthefrontdoor. he wasn’t hidden in any way, shape or form. Neither was Saint Are. That was brilliant. It was one up the jacksy to the plotters and so-called shrewdies.

I’d like to think we can offer our opinions without resorting to insults just because we don’t agree.

I’m prepared to back up my opinion with hard cash going forward. Are you? If so, get on over to Betfair. I’ll lay you 25/1 many Clouds for next year’s race.

Interesting posts Maurice and I hope you reconsider your plan not to return. This is a forum, not a classroom, so you are as entitled as all other contributors to express your opinions. Mind you, can’t agree with you about the race falling into MC’s lap. Unless we accept that e.g. in 1977, the race fell into Rummy’s lap when Andy Pandy fell!

The race did fall into Red Rum’s lap in 1977. First you had Boom Docker a long way out in front, but even if he didn’t refused at the 17th he would have come back to them. Andy Pandy though looked very good until Becher’s second time, and then the was the bad jump by Churchtown Boy at the last.

Equally though in 1976 he should have been ridden more positively and in 1975 L’Escargot nearly fell early on.

Yes to me (getting back to Many Clouds) that he was a little lucky. The Druid’s Nephew looked to be going really well before not finding a leg to stand on (literally) the fence after Valentines second circuit. He was also lucky that quick thinking Ruby (Walsh) was on hand to move the rails and wave the chequered flag so that the field could bypass the Canal Turn (fence) and carry on with the race, while Balthazar King was being attended to, (hope he recovers). Al Co could have played a part too, but he fell at the first, and some were arguing that after Becher’s he didn’t like Aintree. Not every course suits certain horses Silviniaco Conti is a brilliant horse, just doesn’t like Cheltenham in my mind. But the biggest slice of luck for Many Clouds was he flopped in the Gold Cup, otherwise he wouldn’t ran.

I’m glad that we’re now getting analytical rather than emotional. It’s how I prefer to operate. It may sound cold-hearted and it is to an extent but I don’t often get too worked up watching a race even if the result goes my way.

Yes, the fences are there to be jumped but are we really going to dismiss the true picture of a race just because certain things happened or didn’t happen? Surely if we’re going to take form analysis seriously we need to investigate as thoroughly as possible what we’ve witnessed.

Andy Pandy, Boom Docker, even West Tip himself. All what-might-have-beens. Synchronised? Anyone recall what certainties Dark Ivy and Winter Rain were on form? Alverton? Things happen arguably more in the National than in any other race so I’m of the opinion that we need to be more careful than usual about arriving at conclusions about the form.

But let me ask you to consider the official angle.

Going into the race, The Druids Nephew had already been raised 10lbs by the handicapper for his Cheltenham win. Many Clouds had been lowered 5lbs to tempt him to run. Would he have won if there were an additional 5lbs between him and Saint Are? I very much doubt it. The handicapper has now raised him to 167. What he is effectively saying is that he’d expect The Druids Nephew to beat him. All this assumes TDN would have stayed etc and yes, that’s all part of the equation but he’s saying that TDN was better handicapped, even after the race, than Many Clouds.

Going back to Saturday (and off on a tangent), my niece was the only one of the 20-odd of us in the house to back the winner. She asked me before the race what chance her horses had. When she mentioned Many Clouds, I said ‘big chance’ and it immediately occurred to me “why didn’t I include it in my own bets?” But that’s racing. I didn’t back Rocky Creek because I did last year and didn’t think it could beat TDN purely at the weights and I wasn’t convinced the wind op would do anything for its stamina. These are the decisions you win and lose money on. Rocky Creek was a good decision. I’m tempted to argue that not backing Many Clouds was, in the cold light of day, the correct decision, just one that didn’t work out for me on the day. I can’t say I felt the same way about either Comply Or Die or Neptune Collonges. Those were both ones that, in the cold light of day, I was downright stupid to rule out of my final calculations.

On another day, I’ll get it spectacularly right.

I can’t disagree with any of that, homer. But years ago I dismissed my main form fancies Maori Venture and Rhyme ‘N’ Reason on account of their jumping only to end up watching them saunter home. I no longer dismiss anything on those grounds as sometimes the race can make them jump.

Anyone who joined the TV coverage at the start of the second circuit would be forgiven for asking what was the brilliant jumper in the red colours up at the front.

For what it’s worth, it will take some unusual circumstances for TDN to be back on my radar for next year. He’ll be much higher and it’s possible he might not enjoy a return visit. I’m already thinking about the Hennessy and what might emerge from that.

Maurice wrote:

I can’t disagree with any of that, homer. But years ago I dismissed my main form fancies Maori Venture and Rhyme ‘N’ Reason on account of their jumping only to end up watching them saunter home. I no longer dismiss anything on those grounds as sometimes the race can make them jump.

Anyone who joined the TV coverage at the start of the second circuit would be forgiven for asking what was the brilliant jumper in the red colours up at the front.

For what it’s worth, it will take some unusual circumstances for TDN to be back on my radar for next year. He’ll be much higher and it’s possible he might not enjoy a return visit. I’m already thinking about the Hennessy and what might emerge from that.

On that basis you would have dismissed West Tip in 1986 as he fell at Becher’s second time in 1985 going like the probable winner.