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I thought I had the winner and would have had if the horse in front knew when to give in. A truly wonderful performance and not peeved at all in backing the second for the third successive year. The one I didn’t back but thought I would live to regret, Rocky Creek, ran a bit of a stinker. Nowhere near as bad as his Hennessy run, but is one of those horses which you back at your peril, just hoping the right RC is going to turn up on the day.
Looks like Ruby may have found his new niche in life, when he eventually retires. How could you miss him in those lovely pink and green colours. A job well done
B*gger…
I just spent about an hour typing a reply and when I hit ‘submit’ I got a ‘page not found’ message.
I’ll go and do it on a Word doc and copy/paste it when I’m in a better mood.
For fans of many clouds and maybe one or two others, be warned, you might not like it
Many Clouds is going to be raised to 167 according to the first thoughts from the official handicapper. That puts him 7lbs above the mark he has just won off and 5lbs above his current 162 rating. He was dropped from 165 after his Gold Cup effort and his new mark leaves him 5lbs behind Coneygree.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve now reviewed the race a number of times and reckon Many Clouds won pretty much because all the real dangers to him failed to run their race. The list below shows which horses I had on 10lbs or more better than their rating. The figure in brackets is by how many pounds those officially well in were ahead of their mark. The ones in italics are those I eliminated as not having sufficient class to win the race.
Super Duty 19
Rubi Light 16 (3)
The Druids Nephew 15 (10)
Rocky Creek 14 (9)
Rebel Rebellion 14 (7)
Ely Brown 14
Unioniste 13 (2)
Soll 13 (7)
Lord Windermere 12
First Lieutenant 12
Cause Of Causes 12
Godsmejudge 12
Corrin Wood 12
Balthazar King 11
Owega Star 11
Many Clouds 10 (2)
Ballycasey 10
Monbeg Dude 10
Chance Du Roy 10Here’s how they ran:
Super Duty – out of form this season and outpaced throughout
Rubi Light – doubtful stayer but UR early anyway
The Druids Nephew – travelling very strongly in the lead when fell five out
Rocky Creek – didn’t stay last year and didn’t travel as well this time, struggling from before halfway
Rebel Rebellion – doubtful stayer and had run his race and eventually PU
Ely Brown – fell 1st
Unioniste – fell 5th
Soll – didn’t stay two years ago, same again here but BBV
Lord Windermere – trainer can’t buy winners this season, looks out of love with the game, PU
First Lieutenant – mistake 1st, blundered badly second, mistake 3rd, never in it after that
Cause Of Causes – either couldn’t or wasn’t asked to get competitive early, never got in it
Godsmejudge – no form this season, ran well for three miles, eventually PU
Corrin Wood – blundered badly (hampered?) 3rd, soon PU
Balthazar King – every chance when fell
Owega Star – doubtful stayer and ran well for some way
Ballycasey – doubtful stayer but brought down by Balthazar King
Monbeg Dude – couldn’t/not asked to go early pace, never nearer
Chance Du Roy – couldn’t/not asked to go early pace, same as Monbeg DudeAs for the placed horses:
Saint Are – wasn’t really on my radar this time but I’d backed it two years ago as a big improver, new trainer appears to have got it back on a curve, ran a super race. Needed a big win last time to get in so big rise not in its favour.
Monbeg Dude – I didn’t fancy it on class grounds but would have been raging if I’d backed it. Hold up rides don’t win modern Nationals but connections sound thrilled with its run.
Alvarado – having been very critical of Moloney since his State Of Play rides, I’ve opposed Cappa Bleu and Alvarado in the last three years because of him. He doesn’t seem to have learned. Looks happier to get round than to try and win. This fella not good enough anyway but State Of Play most certainly was.
Shutthefrontdoor – would have needed to be as good as Carlingford Lough, the owner’s Gold Cup runner, to have had a chance but AP said before Cheltenham that this was a galloper and stayer, not good enough to get into the Gold Cup and unlikely to be good enough here. Ran to expectations
Royale Knight – like Saint Are, needed a big win to get into the race, which made him badly handicapped relative to others. Probably ran as well as could be expected.So Many Clouds has really only needed to run to his rating to win. On another day he might just as easily have been unplaced as TDN, Rocky Creek (if the op worked), Unioniste, Lord Windermere, Flight Lieutenant and maybe Balthazar King could all have beaten him with a bit of luck. That’s the Grand National for you.
But how unlucky have the connections of The Druids Nephew been? First Geraghty gives Sam Winner too much rope at Cheltenham, then he survives a bad blunder in the Hennessy behind Many Clouds, and now he takes a soft fall in the National with the race at his mercy. He’s already gone up 10lbs before yesterday’s race so things will be much tougher from now on.
The winner’s 25s for a repeat next year – a daft price given that he looks an Aintree natural and he could end up – should his improvement continue – close to a stone well in.
I reckon he should be 25/1 to even run in it next year.
Most winners look like ‘naturals’, as do many of the placed horses, but how many actually run well the following year. Ballabriggs looked a natural and got round the following year running (on my figures) his previous form to the ounce but others were miles ahead of him at the finish.
One of the problems is that people ‘visualise’ without fully understanding handicapping. Even Newland said when the weights came out that Pineau De Re “would have won” last year with 8lbs more (as he was set to carry this time). Those 8lbs amount to 16 lengths in the National. That would put him back alongside Alvarado who got closer this year off a pound higher, which in turns backs the point about this race not taking as much winning.
If Many Clouds is entered next year his weight will depend on how he is campaigned. I reckon he was thought of as a Gold Cup contender this season. That was fine given how poor last year’s form was. Next year they’ll probably take the view that this year’s principals and top novices are a league ahead and there’s no point in taking them on so he might be campaigned to get back in off the same mark. That’s his only chance. And then he’ll need to hope other better-handicapped horses don’t show their form on the day.
The winner’s 25s for a repeat next year – a daft price given that he looks an Aintree natural and he could end up – should his improvement continue – close to a stone well in.
Don’t know about a stone Joe, but you’re right 25/1 is too good to ignore.
Value Is EverythingMaurice, it was definitely “wasn’t”.
I said before the race that the booking of Carberry for Cause of Causes was a huge mistake, and it might have been the only thing I called right, but I’m glad I did. What were they thinking?
Codd should have kept the ride.
Well done with Many Clouds Steve, you really stuck by him………even now, I still can’t fancy him, you’re welcome to him, no chance lol
I was actually quite pleased with Night In Milan, thought he was given the right ride……..like yourself I’d totally given up on him.
I’m sure The Druids Nephew would have won, he’s growing on me quickly, and he’s surely got more decent prizes in him.
I wasn’t happy, wasn’t happy at all with Cause of Causes. I’m trying not to go off on one haha, but it was a stinking ride.
I’d agree with First Lieutenant, couldn’t believe he went so low. I do a write up on the race for a couple of my mates, and I predicted he’d be a plunge horse due to the rider being ridiculously overhyped. I had him down as “pulled up after The Water”. I bet him for The Gold Cup at big odds, and actually thought he had a squeak for Aintree, until his prep run. Think time is catching up with him unfortunately, though I’d love them to find a race for him.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Maurice wrote:</div>
Cause Of Causes – either couldn’t or wasn’t asked to get competitive early, never got in itDefinitely “wasn’t”
That’s how the horse was ridden over 4 miles in the NH Chase. You can’t expect anything else.
Value Is EverythingGT, I’m aware of how he was ridden in the 4 miler, having backed him, and every other race he’s ran in for the past 2 seasons (bar his hurdles run).
He clearly wasn’t ridden the same way as he was in The 4 Miler, as in that race he had a jockey who brought him into the race with a chance of winning, unlike Carberry, who decided to make his challenge once Many Clouds was more or less passing the line.
It was an awful ride, it’s not even a matter for debate.
I reckon he should be 25/1 to even run in it next year.
Most winners look like ‘naturals’, as do many of the placed horses, but how many actually run well the following year. Ballabriggs looked a natural and got round the following year running (on my figures) his previous form to the ounce but others were miles ahead of him at the finish.
One of the problems is that people ‘visualise’ without fully understanding handicapping. Even Newland said when the weights came out that Pineau De Re “would have won” last year with 8lbs more (as he was set to carry this time). Those 8lbs amount to 16 lengths in the National. That would put him back alongside Alvarado who got closer this year off a pound higher, which in turns backs the point about this race not taking as much winning.
If Many Clouds is entered next year his weight will depend on how he is campaigned. I reckon he was thought of as a Gold Cup contender this season. That was fine given how poor last year’s form was. Next year they’ll probably take the view that this year’s principals and top novices are a league ahead and there’s no point in taking them on so he might be campaigned to get back in off the same mark. That’s his only chance. And then he’ll need to hope other better-handicapped horses don’t show their form on the day.
Sounds like you’re a grudge against Many Clouds. He’s only 8 and according to the jockey went better than last year’s winner. Probably the best weight carrying performance since Suny Bay. Given the average amount of luck in running in future Nationals (not been brought down or carried out by loose horses) and that he remains in good health and race fit, he might equal or surpass Red Rum’s record of three wins.
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.Maurice, there’s no need to get in off the same mark next year – whatever happens to his mark he cannot be allotted any more than another 1lb (top weight 11.10). He’s already gone up half a stone in OR and has a highly progressive profile. I think there’s every chance he’ll find another 5lbs to 7lbs improvement.
The crucial thing, and all that’s stopping me going in hard at 25s, is that the National can leave a lifelong mark on any horse. If he’s tough enough to come out of it (even harder for a horse like him who naturally gives every ounce), 25/1 would be a ridiculous price. 10s would be about right imo. The 25s more than justifies taking the chance that he’ll come out of the race okay after a long rest. He has youth on his side, class, jumping, stamina, experience, a fine trainer and perhaps the best National jockey of modern times.
Sounds like you’re a grudge against Many Clouds. He’s only 8 and according to the jockey went better than last year’s winner. Probably the best weight carrying performance since Suny Bay. Given the average amount of luck in running in future Nationals (not been brought down or carried out by loose horses) and that he remains in good health and race fit, he might equal or surpass Red Rum’s record of three wins.
You couldn’t be more wrong. I love the horse (backed him in the Hennessy) and have spent a lot of time today trying to analyse why I didn’t back him as he was in my list of qualifiers.
But my argument is based on what he actually achieved yesterday. I’ve concluded the race fell into his lap. He won’t have anything more to carry next year in broad terms but other horses will have less in comparison. The fact it’s close on 40 years since Red Rum did his hat-trick (and won his second under top weight) tells you all you need to know about MC’s chances of success next year. Suny Bay couldn’t do it either. He should be at least 40/1, and even then I’d want that about him even taking part.
I will state with the utmost confidence right now that MC has as much chance of 3 Nationals as I have of ******** Jane Hill.
You might love him, but you’ve managed to justify your decision in not backing him by concluding that you were right in that decision and it was the horse who didn’t deserve to win, rather than you who didn’t deserve to miss a winner.
There are many deluded people in this business. Most of them end up skint. Horses who win a National off that mark with half the field finishing and no ‘Foinavons’ or ‘Devon Lochs’, don’t have Nationals ‘fall in their laps’. Take your medicine. You got it wrong, not the horse.
I backed Balthazar King when they decided to miss the cross county at Cheltenham to better prepare him for this race.
It’s not forum knowledge but a few members know that my wife passed away at the end of February (grotbags66) and she was a keen follower of Hobbs and especially Richard Johnson so it would be an emotional result if he were to come in.
The best result will be for them all to come home safe and sound. Good luck guys.Sincere condolences to you and your family Nathan and all best wishes for the future. I hope Balthazar King makes a full recovery and hopefully you were on Duke Of Lucca aswell.
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