Grand National Trial 2015

Probably not ideal to have a proper Grand National Trial a couple of days before the weights are published, but a few booked for Aintree are still in the line up here. There’a good few double booked for The Eider, and the usual mix of those Aintree candidates either looking to rise a few vital pounds, or preserve their current mark.

It’s cut up a fair bit from the original entry, and I just hope it doesn’t cut up too much more.

Holding an entry in The National, and current market leader for this around 5’s, is the Paul Nicholls trained Benvolio. Comes here off the back of his second in The Welsh National, that run would entitle him to go close here, and that run alone seems enough to justify his spot at the head of the market. Was never convinced with him in the past, especially when he got trounced at Sandown last year, but he may have turned a corner now, and lots to like about his attitude at Chepstow. He’s just been bought by the owners of Party Politics, and although PP was bought close to the eve of the race in 92, they’ll be hoping lightning can strike twice with this purchase. He also appears to be a definite runner here, so a safe enough ante-post proposition, though worth noting he does hold an entry in The Eider the following week. I’ll be against him though, as off 145, he’s safely getting in at Aintree, and wouldn’t want to be heading to Aintree off 150+.

Just behind Benvolio at Chepstow, were Glenquest, Monbeg Dude, and Benbens. Glenquest was so unlucky at Chepstow, just not getting home. He’s engaged to run over hurdles at Down Royal tomorrow though, so I’ll leave him alone for this, with The Eider at Newcastle a more realistic target. Monbeg Dude continues to run sound enough races in defeat, and I’ll take a chance that The National is the main aim for him, though I’m struggling to find too many negatives for him here. Benbens would be my pick of the Chepstow runners though. Seemed to be on an upward curve when tackling The Becher Chase, where he unseated rider, but his fifth at Chepstow was a step in the right direction for him, and he continued this progress with a great run here last month. He didn’t too to much wrong, in what was a proper slog, and in an another few yards, he’d have got there. He already has the look of a horse who’s an “old hand” in these staying chases, and although he’ll tackle this off a career high mark, it only looks a matter of time before he lands one of them. The only question mark for Saturday is how much that race took out of him last time.

That very much applies to the winner that day, Samstown. He was out on his feet at the end, and if that’s not enough, he’s got a 9lb rise to contend with. I felt the race kind of landed in his lap, passing tired horses, and even then he nearly threw it away. The going is currently described as soft, and worryingly for him, a dry week is forecast. He is, at least, finally fulfilling the potential he hinted at a couple of years ago, and though he won’t have my cash on him, he looks more likely to run his race than some of them. At least we know he’ll act on the track. There’s just the feeling he’ll find a couple in there who are better treated. Be great to be proved wrong though, and see a smaller yard land a prize like this.

The potentially quicker going might also be an issue for last years winner, Rigadin De Beauchene, from the Venetia williams yard. I had a nice wee payday from him in this last year, when he won it by a wide margin……….a wide margin that seen him hammered by the handicapper. He’s coming down the weights now though, but this doesn’t look like being the mudbath it was last year. He holds an entry for Aintree, and he’s borderline to get in off his current mark. So chances are he may still end up here, in an attempt to make The National, but in my opinion, he might just find things happening too quickly for him at Aintree anyway, and The Eider might be just perfect for him. I hate to desert him for this, but I’m not in a rush to desert his stablemate, Ballyoliver. I had a few quid on him at Warwick last time, but after looking like he might get involved at one stage, it never really materialised, and in the end, he was well beaten. He seems a tad temperamental, and after an impressive win at Carlisle in November, he didn’t look too interested next time, at Cheltenham. He’s risky then, but with connections apparently keen for him to get in at Aintree, then he looks worth that risk at 25’s, as off of 131, he’s no chance of getting in there otherwise. Only a few pounds higher now than that day at Carlisle, if in the same mood, I could see him going close, and I’ve had a few quid at the 25’s.

My other main fancy at this stage would be Lie Forrit, who’s available at a very tempting 16’s. He’s came back this season in excellent form, and he looks, if it’s possible at 11, that there’s more improvement to come. Up 11 lbs since the start of the season, but it doesn’t look too harsh, considering the form he’s in. This would also appear to be the main target, with no Aintree or Eider entries to confuse things, and for a yard who have landed this twice, then he looks rock solid each way to me at the 16’s.

I could go either way with Broadway Buffalo for this. He’s coming up the handicap slowly, and has a couple of runs this year, particularly a cosy win here in December, that put him right in the mix. That was enough for me to chance him for Aintree at huge odds, but he still looks as if he needs to go up another couple of pounds for that target, so he’ll have to be on a going day here. I expected him to land The Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby in December, but winner aside, who looks progressive, the placed horses have hardly franked the form since, and that’s a concern. He’s clearly got the ability, and I just hope he can show it on Saturday.

One horse who was cruising in that Rowland Meyrick, before unseating his rider, was Trustan Times. He looked the part that day, and after a couple of lifeless runs, his season looked as if it was getting going. He then disappointed at Musselburgh last time in a Pertemps Qualifier, but it may just be the Final at Cheltenham may be the race to catch him over the smaller obstacles. Over the larger obstacles, I feel he’s a winner waiting to happen. He was a decent result for me when he placed in The Scottish National, and I felt he was a natural for Aintree, but he didn’t get an entry, taking my winnings from Ayr, and a lot more, with him. The question with him then, is what is the target? He looks well handicapped, but he has this, The Eider, and obviously Ayr again as realistic prizes. If he traps here, then I can’t really ignore him, but ideally, I’d like to see him head for Cheltenham in The Pertemps, followed by another tilt at The Scottish National. I hope he swerves this, but if he goes, I’ll bet him.

Both Alpha Victor, and Super Duty took in a competitive handicap hurdle at Wetherby last week, and both performed very well, particularly Alpha Victor. He looked the winner until close to home, only finding the very promising Join The Clan, under a 10lb claimer, too good for him. He can also boast a second in last years Midlands National, so he makes plenty of appeal. He also takes a few races to get going normally, before hitting form, so now may be the time to catch him. With that Uttoxeter run in mind though, he’s another who might find the marathon trip of The Eider more suitable. Whatever race he takes in though, he’s clearly very capable on his day, and very difficult to rule out, though at a push he can be very moody though, and wouldn’t be the first time he’s refused to race, so he’ll always come with a certain element of risk. Super Duty has Aintree as his main target, and off a mark of 141, he should get in safely. Looked to be a staying chaser going places with Donald McCain, only for a leg injury to interrupt his career. Now with Ian Williams, his return over hurdles in that Wetherby race was very encouraging, and he’s got plenty of runs in the book to give him a squeak here. Not that long ago he was beaten narrowly in The Kim Muir at The Festival, and he also went down fighting to subsequent bet365 Gold Cup winner Hadrians Approach, at Newbury. If totally over his setback, then a decent prize surely awaits, though I’ll take the chance it isn’t this Saturday.

Another horse who took in the Welsh National was Gas Line Boy. He was well fancied for that, coming in to it in fine form off the back of 2 wins. He was a big disappointment though, and other than a huge hike in the weights, there didn’t seem to be too many excuses. He has come down a handy 5lbs for that run, but I’ll give him a miss till he comes down a few more. Also flopping was the 2013 winner Mountainous. Again, no obvious excuses, and he hasn’t looked the same horse since his Chepstow heroics last season. However, unlike Gas Line Boy, he now looks weighted to spring a revival, and with him needing to find a few pounds to make it to Aintree, then no surprise to see him go well here, particularly for a trainer with a fair record in these types of chases.

Down the bottom, Loch Ba, and Harry The Viking look possibly past their best, but if the race cut up, then Loch Ba supporters could look to his (distant) third in this last year, and those looking at The Viking could draw some hope from his second to Lie Forrit at Kelso last time. In reality though, this might be too much, particularly for Loch Ba, who took in that West Wales National at Ffos Las in desperate conditions, only a fortnight ago. If pushed on the 2, then I could see The Viking defy his odds, but I’ll look elsewhere for now.

I’ve taken a chance then on Ballyoliver at the 25’s, and I’m going to add Lie Forrit at the 16’s……in a race that looks as if it could cut up, then I’m happy to take a chance at those odds just now.

GL