Topham 2014

A race I’ve got a love/hate relationship with, it’s nonetheless a decent appetiser for The National, and a race I’ve farmed in recent years. Just take a look at this list of previous winners I’ve nailed.

2006 Liberthine
1984 Fabulous

Well, I didn’t so much bet Fabulous, as pick him. I was too young to have a bet, and my Dad didn’t want to encourage me. That plan worked out real well. When it comes to this race though, I wished I’d listened, and best, considering my record in it, to treat all of this with a pinch of salt.

As is normally the case, the entries are littered with horses double booked for The National, so probably be best advised to check either connections preference, or where the horse is in the list for the Saturday.

The one that stands out most for me is last years third, Last Time D’Albain. Liked the way he travelled round last year, and was a staying on third, and after rider lost his irons at one point. Had a careful preparation so far this season, and I’m hoping he’s primed for a big run………….in The National. He’s a big fancy for me in the big one, and I’m hoping he swerves this. Should he take up this engagement, then he’s a serious player.

Nicky Henderson landed this last year with Triolo D’Alene, and he’s got a top class team entered, with Hunt Ball, Shakalakaboomboom, Tanks For That, Rajdhani Express, Ma Filleule, and Giorgio Quercus. Hunt Ball, and Radjhani are at the head of the market on 14’s. Hunt Ball has clearly enjoyed being back on these shores, and his last 2 runs have been very encouraging. This would be more suitable than the marathon National trip, but you just get the impression, the owners might just favour the big day out on the Saturday. He wouldn’t disgrace himself in this. You could argue Shakalaka didn’t get home in the 2012 National, but it’s possible with a different ride, he might just be worth one more go in the big one. He hasn’t impressed on his last 2 runs, but I reckon they’ll take their chances on the Saturday. Rajdhani Express was subject to my biggest bet of the week at Cheltenham, and he didn’t let me down, finishing third in The Ryanair. I’d reckon he’d be a cert to line up here, and his odds of 14’s look too good to resist. He’ll have a big weight for sure, but I think he’s got the class to carry it, and I think he can go close here en route to an ever bigger season next year. He’ll also be aided by Sam Waley-Cohen, who rides Aintree as well as anyone. Giorgio Quercus is another horse I keep an eye on, and although he’s not seen out that often, he’s got a big race in him, and can’t possibly be discounted for this. Had Betbright Chase winner, Bally Legend, behind him earlier in the season, and he’s still a lot lower in the weights than he has in the past. Ran a very sound race in The Byrne Group Plate, and at 25’s, I might just take a chance on him also. It’s a long way off, but I see him as a potential Grand National candidate next year. Tanks For That is likeable enough, but just doesn’t seem to win often enough for me. I think he might be more suited to one of the handicaps on The Mildmay Course. I didn’t give Ma Filleule much of a chance in the 3 miler at Cheltenham, but she ran a blinder, only finding Holywell too good. She’s up 7lbs for that, and I just feel there’ll be better options for her, but she’s proved me wrong before. Well fancied off the back of her last run, and as low as 14’s.

Toner D’Oudairies gets an entry, and although he seems to have been around for years, he’s only a 7 year old. I think the sky’s the limit for him, and I had a good go on him for The National, but he didn’t qualify. He gets plenty of entries, and he’s one to tread carefully with from an ante-post point of view (doesn’t stop me). I think, ulitmately, he’ll move away from handicaps, but should he end up here, I’d be very interested. Model of consistency, and his form is littered with 1’s and 2’s, and rarely runs in egg and spoon races.

Double Ross has been very, very good to me this season, and he’s an eyecatching entry. It’s no surprise to see him also at the head of the market at 14’s. He’s been a revelation this season, and I think he’s impossible to ignore. This might be the first race I’ve deserted him in for a good while though, as I just fancy the others more, but should he win, I’ll be delighted for him. Could easily see STD blazing a trail on him.

Paul Nicholls has half a dozen entered with Rebel Rebellion, Pacha Du Polder, Cedre Bleu, Kauto Stone, Mon Parrain, and Fago. It doesn’t seem like 3 years since Mon Parrain finished an impressive second in this, but it is, and to be honest, that was probably his last good run. Shame, as he looked destined for the top that year, but he’s clearly had his fair share of problems. Leap of faith required, that the ability is still there. Pacha Du Polder is another who’s ultimately been a bit disappointing, and he was well down the field in this last year. He did spring a bit of a shock last year at Newbury though, and he’s almost back down to that winning mark. Kauto Stone is another who’s not went close for some time, but he does keep pretty decent company, and his handicap mark is plummeting. Fago normally runs around the 2 mile mark, and was very highly regarded a while back. He’s another who’s kept some hot company, and he doesn’t look too badly treated. He’s Graham Wylies only entry, and I think you could consider him having a good chance of lining up, as he likes to have a runner in this. I don’t think he’s a forlorn hope. Cedre Bleu’s another who looks solid enough, and you could give him a chance off the back of some of his runs this year. I think the strongest of these could be Rebel Rebellion who won over these fences in The Grand Sefton in December. He’s crept up the weights a fair bit, but plenty to like about his performances this season, and he looks a player.

Your Busy chased home Rebel Rebellion that day, and though he doesn’t strike me as the winner of this, you should at least get a run for your money from him. He’s one of a decent Irish entry, which includes the already mentioned Toner D’Oudairies, and Last Time D’albain. Spring Heeled edged out Cause of Causes in this years Kim Muir, and I rate that horse highly. I thought he was ultra impressive that day, and there’s surely more to come. I didn’t consider The Topham for him though, but connections look like giving it serious consideration. I don’t think he’ll be a stranger to these shores, and this is surely a sighter for next years National, as he looks nailed on to feature in the big handicaps next year…..at the very least. Potential star of the future. Savello would be another interesting runner after his Grand Annual effort, and I hope he doesn’t get hammered too much for that, would love to see him in this, though you may see him in one of the non-handicaps at The Meeting. There’s plenty of others who could cross The Irish Sea, and given their record in this, any Irish trained runner would have to be considered. I’ll hold fire until I see who makes it, though have to give Jimmy The Hat a mention, as he looks a potential dark horse.

This race will always conjure up images of Always Waining, and any runners from Peter Bowen at this track, never mind this race, is difficult to write off. He’s three handed with Sir Du Bearn, Kians Delight, and Ballybough Gorta. Easily the most interesting of these to me is Kians Delight. He caught the eye at Market Rasen last year, and I’ve had this is mind for him for some time now. I though he’d end up my main choice, but with the strong entry, it’s got a bit more difficult to side with him alone. He’ll almost certainly be bet by myself, especially with 33’s readily available.

Another trainer I’ll be keeping a close eye on at Aintree is Venetia Williams. She’s had a great season, but after a fairly quiet Cheltenahm, I’m sure she’ll be out to make amends. I chucked a few quid at Bennys Mist at Cheltenham, but he was a bit of a letdown, and he needs to bounce back. He’s also got questions to answer after disappointing in this last year, when well fancied. Of more appeal is Renard, who I bet in this last year. Although he finished midfield, he seemed to enjoy the experience, and jumped well enough. He’s in decent form, and is another who I could see heading for The National next year, as he seems to have had no problems with his recent step up in trip, running fine races in defeat, at Cheltenham, and particularly Doncaster.

David Pipe had a fine Cheltehnam, and in a race his Dad did well in, his entries are worth a look. Swing Bill will hopefully get one more crack at The National, and at No.50 on the list, he should sneak in to that no problem. At 13, he may find himself getting outpaced in this now anyway. Poole Master has been brought along nicely in low key events, and he’s won his last 2. The stable brought Baltimore Rock along quietly in low key races as well, before letting him loose in The Imperial Cup. Wouldn’t rule out a similar plot with this one. Interesting. Standing Ovation is a bit more high profile, but his run at Cheltenham didn’t go unnoticed, and he remains a difficult horse to ignore. Wetak has a few questions to answer now.

Lost Legend is near the head of the market, but although he’ll look very nicely weighted, I see him as more of along term prospect in 3 mile plus handicaps, and he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on……though no surprise should he make me eat my words. His stablemate Eastlake looks a live one though, and being JP’s only entry, the 33’s with Paddy Power looks extremely tempting…..and he’s definitely shortlist material for
me.

Champion Court gets an entry too, and though this trip is ideal for him, and he’s a decent sort, I don’t know if I’d back him round here of 157.

Dunowen Point was a fine fourth in this last year, but has had an ultimately disappointing season, and he needs to atone for a “no show” here in The Grand Sefton. I wouldn’t rule it out for a horse, who connections surely see as a long term Grand National candidate.

Last years winning Grand National Trainer has 2 entered. Tahiti Pearl has been ultra consistent all season, and had Dunowen Point behind him last time, as well as subsequent winners, Consigliere, and Tranquil Sea. He’s been given a break since, and at 25’s he’s another who appeals at a price (it’s no easy this). Gansey is a regular round Aintree, and he always seems to find one or two too good. He’s reaching veteran stages now, but would love to see him land a race like this……though he’d be doing it without my money on him.

Talking of veterans, Big Fella Thanks, and Planet Of Sound are in there too. Big Fella has looked a bit on the downgrade this year, but hopefully a return to Aintree can rekindle his spark. Although he failed to get round in last years National, you’d hope he’ll get round safe and sound. Planet of Sound is a very popular horse, who won’t be short of supporters, and a repeat of his front running performance in the 2012 National should be a fair sight. He ran well at Kempton in January, and see no reason why he can’t bowl along, and hold on for a place.

There’s still loads more not mentioned, and it looks a strong entry. Best entry in some years for this, and a potential cracker.

Difficult to take a strong position, but I honestly think Radjhani Express could defy his current mark.

Of those at a price, I’m going to have to whittle down a good few, though

Tahiti Pearl @ 25’s
Giorgio Quercus @ 25’s
Eastlake @ 33’s
Kians Delight @ 33’s

are all proving hard to resist.

GL