- This topic has 36 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 10 years, 6 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I think Hadrians Approach is flat bred so I’d have to rule him out
. Not sure Tidal Bay’s style of running will suit the race. Can’t really see beyond Green Flag or Mendip Express.
Glad to see a thread on the "real" National
I love this meeting and go every year, as within 1 hour of the track. l will be there again on Saturday trying my luck in the big one, which I must admit I’ve had a few places but not many winners over the years.
Had a look at this years field and like the look of Roalco de Farges, although not totally convinced he’ll stay and Lackamon who won the Durham National and should go well.
I’ve read the comments about the ground but i’m almost certain Ayr has a sandy base and dries out well so would be surprised if the going is that testing. I think it’ll be gd/soft with soft places or soft with gd/soft places depending on the amount of rain on Saturday morning.
Good luck to all and looking forward to an exciting days racing where i’m also hoping Alan King’s runners will go well.
Glad to see a thread on the "real" National
I love this meeting and go every year, as within 1 hour of the track. l will be there again on Saturday trying my luck in the big one, which I must admit I’ve had a few places but not many winners over the years.
Had a look at this years field and like the look of Roalco de Farges, although not totally convinced he’ll stay and Lackamon who won the Durham National and should go well.
I’ve read the comments about the ground but i’m almost certain Ayr has a sandy base and dries out well so would be surprised if the going is that testing. I think it’ll be gd/soft with soft places or soft with gd/soft places depending on the amount of rain on Saturday morning.
Good luck to all and looking forward to an exciting days racing where i’m also hoping Alan King’s runners will go well.
I know they had a lot of problems with the ground and lost a few meetings because of it a while back, a friend who is a member was forever moaning about it, but I know they did a bit of work on the ground and it takes rain better now.
You could be right with the going, I think a lot will depend on how much they get on Saturday morning. Friday is supposed to be fair, but Saturday is forecast rain from 8am to 2pm, with heavy rain between 9 and noon. If it gets into the ground it could be very testing, if it doesn’t arrive, my chance on Rigadin De Beauchene are not looking too rosy.
It’s all in the hands of the racing Gods, but then isn’t it always.
Great thread again, Bobby, well done, mate.
I’ve got to stay with Today Bay having gone for him at Aintree. But I’ll back Roalco de Farges too.
Hi BigG,
I checked a few sites and the forecast varies from light showers to heavy rain in the morning. Hopefully whatever happens it won’t inconvenience too many runners and we’ll get a great race. As you say it’s all in the hands of the racing gods.
Looking at the runners again I reckon Rigadin de Beauchene has been aimed at this since last year [don’t think the owner would let him run at Aintree]. Has amazing form in staying handicaps and beat Godsmejudge last year [?] albeit receiving a few pounds. With TB allowing him to run with less than 11st plus a further 3 lb off his back he looks a good ew bet
.
For Tidal Bay to win it will buck the age trends, with the range being 7-11 over the last 18 years. Also, carrying 11-12 is a big ask but there’s not much else in the way of quality in the field with only the first 11 in the handicap proper. The last horse to win from the long handicap was Iris De Balme in 2008 and only 4 have managed the feat in 20 years.
If Tidal Bay and Roberto Goldbeck go because of their age, it leaves 9…
Mendip Express – I have drawn a line through him based purely on the fact that the previous 12 winners had all raced within 57 days and his last outing will be 63 days ago. A bit harsh of me maybe?
Battle Group – last 4 races PRPR is enough to put anyone off but he also goes as his last actual run was 112 days ago. He refused to race at Aintree.
Hadrian’s Approach – he failed to get anywhere near Holywell in the Cheltenham Festival Handicap and all of the last 18 winners finished in the first 6 in their previous race.
Godsmejudge – pulled up on the same going (over shorter distances) as his win last year in this race. Taken off my list because he didn’t make the first 6 in his last race.This leaves Rigadin De Beauchene, Sam Winner, Green Flag, Midnight Appeal and Yes Tom in the handicap proper and following the trends.
Also following the trends but in the long handicap are…
Mcmurrough, Lackamon, Alpha Victor, Edmund Kean, Nuts N Bolts, Mister Marker, Trustan Times, Summery Justice and Baile Anrai.Good luck.
Top weight aside, Sam Winner is the class horse in the race – 4th in a triumph when favourite and 5th in this years RSA.
His pedigree doesn’t scream 4 miles but his style of running often has. Nicholls was quoted as saying "he could be my 4 miler" (meaning Cheltenham) after his win there in December and while running a big race in the RSA, although admittedly the winner has since let the form down, not for the first time did he look to be short of pace at a crucial point.
He has form on all sorts of ground so any change in the weather between now and tomorrow shouldn’t affect him too much and with 10st 7lb on his back he must surely have too much class for plodders like RDB (who ran woefully in this last year before eventually pulling up).
The question mark is whether he’ll truly stay the trip but that is reflected in the 10/1.
Trainer form preventing me from going in too heavy.
Lee
Looking at the runners again I reckon Rigadin de Beauchene has been aimed at this since last year [don’t think the owner would let him run at Aintree]. Has amazing form in staying handicaps and beat Godsmejudge last year [?] albeit receiving a few pounds. With TB allowing him to run with less than 11st plus a further 3 lb off his back he looks a good ew bet
.
I hope you are right Moe, I think if it comes up soft or hopefully towards heavy, he has a cracking chance. I’m glad that Tidal bay stayed in for two reasons, 1. that I love him (not in a freaky way) and 2. it allows R De B to carry 19lbs less than he would have to if TB wasn’t there.
The Met Office and BBC weather sites still have heavy rain forecast between 7am and 10am, and a bit light rain either side. If that turns out to be correct, I can’t see the ground being better than soft, perhaps worse, which gives him a cracking chance. To be honest, I’m surprised to see 20/1 still available. Venetia’s stable is not one to decline the occasional punt if they think they are in with a shout, if they do, I expect to see his price shrink considerably.
VTC is going to do a recce for us tomorrow morning. VTC……"YOU THE MAN"!!!!! (in my best irritating US accent)
Roalco De Farges is worth a saver. I watched his last race and he travelled like the probable winner from a long way out. He kept on well that day after being held up before coming through to take it up. That trick may be harder to pull off over the longer trip against better horses but he clearly arrives here having found some form and he seems feasibly enough handicapped after an almost two year absence since finishing second to none other than Tidal Bay in the 2012 Bet 365 Gold Cup. He’s 5lbs out of the handicap but I think that matters less in the marathon races. He’s of interest to me at 10/1 or better.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well, the BIG one’s here!
It’s been drizzling this morning in the West of Scotland. @emmaj marley tweeted that she expects the rain will soften the going. By how much is anyone’s guess but I wouldn’t expect it to be enough to be very soft, as we’ve only had light rain. Weather due to clear up between 10-11am and be good until another few showers around 3pm, before the National.
I note Tom Segal has tipped up Roalco De Farges. His price has shortened in the last day or so. The bookies up here are not known for their generosity and will probably shorten up the prices on course. I’ve put my SGC selections early on account of this.
Hope this helps and good luck to all.
I was looking at Pure Faith last night because there was a very limit parameter in the Grand National for RPR and TS and Pure Faith was one of three horses that are within those figures [the others being Lackamon and Fill the Power] but it’s a different race and track so I’ll wait and see what the outcome is. And I still fancy Rigadin. Was also very keen on Adrenalin Flight but he seems to be a good ground horse and it might be too soft for him [?]. Pehaps I should stick with Venetia, Liam and Conor [who won the other day] but don’t want to bring them bad luck by putting my pennies on them. I think TB should have waited for the Whitbread but hope I’m wrong. Really looking forward to this afternoons racing.
Well, the BIG one’s here!
It’s been drizzling this morning in the West of Scotland. @emmaj marley tweeted that she expects the rain will soften the going. By how much is anyone’s guess but I wouldn’t expect it to be enough to be very soft, as we’ve only had light rain. Weather due to clear up between 10-11am and be good until another few showers around 3pm, before the National.
I note Tom Segal has tipped up Roalco De Farges. His price has shortened in the last day or so. The bookies up here are not known for their generosity and will probably shorten up the prices on course. I’ve put my SGC selections early on account of this.
Hope this helps and good luck to all.
Thanks for that Seeyouthen, I was hoping for a bit of a downpour early this morning, it was forecast heavy rain between 7 and 10am, I’m not sure that arrived, but it is good to know that Emma Marley thinks the rain will have some effect, I see she mentioned that the ground was g/soft yesterday, but she "suspects the rain will ease conditions". That might suggest it is going to be more towards soft. You mentioned showers around 3pm, although I don’t see that on the forecasts.
I might sound a bit obsessed with the weather, but it’s just that my nag, Rigadin De Beauchene, is a bit ground dependent, the softer the better.
Anyway, my money is down, so that’s that. Come on old Tidal Bay.
I’m looking to do the National double, for the first time ever!
Here’s my selections for today –
1. Roalco De Farges
2. Mendip Express
3. Rigadin De Beauchene
4. Merry KingRoalco De Farges looks like the best bet from a trends perspective, although Pricewise has shafted the price somewhat.
Nuts N Bolts looks an interesting contender, will definitely get the trip, and the price looks good.
I will be cheering Tidal Bay on, and with the amount of horses out of the handicap (and therefore at a theoretical disadvantage) you’d have to have a sentimental bet.
Those are my three, anyway.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.