Irish National 2014

As usual, a very strong looking entry, and of the 69 involved, it’s not surprisingly, littered with a huge entry from both JP McManus, and Gigginstown. Lots of big names in there, from the big stables, but the type of race, where runners from the smaller yards are given just as much consideration as the big boys.

There’s also a good few of them that have taken in The Nationals at Aintree, and Ayr, which puts question marks over their participation here, and might make life easier, trying to make a selection st this stage.

JP has just the 11 entered, and hard enough working out which ones will go, never mind his best candidates. At the head of the market is Cause Of Causes, who’s filled the runners up spot in his last 3 runs, though he’s had the added burden of me continually having my cash on him. His last 2 runs were in the Paddy Power Chase, over Christmas, and The Kim Muir at Cheltenham. The Paddy Power is ultra competitive, and to only go down by a short head, was a strong effort for horse with little experience over fences. Debatable whether or not it would have made a difference to the final result, as the winner was very impressive, but a last fence blunder last time out in The Kim Muir certainly didn’t help his cause, and he only went down by a couple of lengths. At 6, he’s clearly got a future over fences, and I think, justifies his position at the head of the market. Originally was hoping to see him heading for The Galway Plate, but a good run in this could scupper his mark for that. There’s just the suspicion that his future lies outwith handicaps anyway. I’ll leave him alone here though. I’m confident this isn’t the plan.

The Jonjo pair of Alfie Sherrin, and Shutthefrontdoor look ideal candidates for this. A Festival winner in the past, Alfie Sherrin, has the look of a very well handicapped horse (too well handicapped to get in at Aintree), and he’s down another 5lbs after Cheltenham. His run in The Fixed Brush Hurdle is difficult to forget, and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t land another big prize before age catches up with him. Shutthefrontdoor’s season has never really taken off, and he was a bit of a disappointment at Cheltenham, but he’s not one to write off, and he has the look of a horse who’ll run away with a race like this, when things just “click”. Both will be on my radar, and with Jonjo surely considering sending the pair of them, then they certainly provide me with a bit of a dilemma. The Westener Boy looked a horse of serious potential a couple of years back, before he had a long layoff, and despite 2 relatively low key comebacks, he’s clearly fancied, and is generally available at 14’s. On the face of it, that looks short enough, but I’d tend to think he’d be good to go now, and though he’s not achieved that much, looking at him, fairly sure he’s got a good prize in him. These would surely be JP’s principals for this.

Of the rest, well, Cantlow is a horse who’s future looks to be in staying handicaps, and I’m satisfied that the trip won’t present too much of an issue, certainly based on his run in The Pertemps 2 years ago. He’s not given as much attention here, as I just think he’s more likely to head to Sandown, for which I think he’s a live contender. Should he cross the Irish Sea, then it’ll just provide another headache for me. Another of JP’s I follow, and a horse who’s done me proud this season, is Double Seven. Asking a lot for him to turn out in this after making the frame at Aintree. He’ll surely be aimed at The National again next year, and will have a campaign geared accordingly. I’d be very surprised if this’ll remain on the agenda. Pendra takes a step into the unknown trip wise, and I think this may come too soon for him, though he’s surely a horse we’ll get to know better in races like this in the future. Colbert Station has a had a disappointing season, and stopped very quickly for my liking at Aintree, while Please Talk surely isn’t good enough, and hasn’t done enough to suggest he can land this. As I said on The Scottish National thread, Storm Survivor is a horse who likes like he’s coming back to himself, and though I wouldn’t rule him out in this, I just think we’re more likely to see him at Sandown too. Groody Hill was a big fancy for me in The Thyestes, but he emptied out very quicky, and was pulled up close to home. I suppose he was entitled to that, as was not long back from a long layoff, but as much as I’d be gutted if I missed him in this, I just have to leave him out the equation this time. Tumbling down the weights, but he was pulled up in this 2 years ago, and based on his Thyestes run, then could see a similar fate here. Love him to come back, but he may need more time, though I suppose you could argue he’s had 3 months to recover from his last run.

Gigginsotwn are taking it a bit easier, and have only entered the 9. Don Cossack is probably the most promising entry, however I’ll pass him over, as surely The Powers Gold Cup would be a more attractive target for him. He’s obviously a danger if he goes for this though. Bog Warrior is considered very ground dependant, and he’ll be carrying enough weight, but he strikes me as being something of an overlooked horse, and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet. It’d be a superb effort to land this, and although he’ll be vulnerable to a good few lightweights, off the back off a win last time, he’s not totally ruled out. Toner D’Oudairies is a horse who gets an entry for every race going, and will always be very risky from an ante-post angle, but he’s another we’ve not seen the best of yet, and I think he’s absolutely crying out for a trip. He’s got enough weight, but I think he’d be folly to ignore should he line up here. Found things happening too quickly for him at Aintree, and this looks as if it may just be what he needs. Ipsos Du Berlais is a total rogue, and you just don’t know what you’re going to get. He can’t possibly be bet with any confidence, but if on a going day, the talent is there. Who knows? Carry Each Other had a good spin round at Fairyhouse the other day, and I couldn’t really see any negatives for him, and it had the look of a “sighter” for this race. That 40’s looks very tempting, though he has got a fight on his hands to get in. Rogue Angel ran well for a long way at Cheltenham, but he’s ran since then at Limerick and he was a bit disappointing, put well in his place. In front of him that day was Folsom Blue, and although he could only finish 4th of the 6 runners that day, I seen enough of him, when landing a competitive enough affair at Punchestown a couple of months back, to easily see him go close in this. 25’s still available, but no surprise to see him 16’s in places. At this stage, I’d make him the pick of the Giggs horses. Make A Track was a big priced winner in December, and he looks a bit of a lurker to me, having not won since, but running respectably enough. He’s got enough ability to take this, and it’s not too long ago he was finishing 4th in The Pertemps. The hustle and bustle of this will hold no fears for him, and he’s another who looks interesting at 40’s. Toostrong hasn’t done enough for me, and he may struggle to get in anyway.

Pushing Cause of Causes for favouritism are Tammys Hill, and Home Farm. Tammys Hill, now a Cheltenham Festival winner, continues to carve out some solid performances, and although for a horse who mainly operates on the hunter circuit, 10’s might just be a little short for some, it’s very difficult to be negative about him. Rarely puts in a bad one, and although I won’t be backing him, he’s definitely one to be wary about. Home Farm, as low as 12’s, has a poor run last time at Leapordstown to overcome. That run was considered bad enough by trainer Arthur Moore, to rule him out of Aintree, so he’s certainly got questions to answer. However, not beyond the realms of possibility that Moore can get him spot on for this, in an attempt to better his third in this last year. Well fancied for The December Gold Cup before he had a setback, and he attracted plenty of support last time too. Obvious chance on picks of his form, and excusing his last run, I’m sure he’s on plenty of punters shortlist. Moore also has Pass The Hat entered, and his win last time puts him well in contention. He had Home Farm behind him, and based on that run, I think he looks fairly treated. His 6th in The Troytown also shows that the hurly burly of a race like this, shouldn’t inconvenience him either.

Daring Article also took in that race at Leapordstown, and like Home Farm, despite finishing 4th, I thought was just a little disappointing. He was on something of a roll last year, winning twice, and went into the Paddy Power at Leapordstown well touted, but he fell a few fences out. His next run back at the track in January was more like it, finishing runner up in the very tough Leapordstown Handicap Chase. If forgiven that poor run, behind Pass The Hat last time, then he comes into the equation, but you’d have to pin your hopes on this stamina test playing to his strengths. Obviously has a chance, but I’d say at 12’s in places, he’s short enough at this stage.

Spring Heeled is around the 16’s mark, and on the back of his performance at Cheltenham when winning The Kim Muir, then that initially looks pretty generous. A horse with a proper future based on that run, if he were mine, he’d be taking up one of his other engagements in either The Powers Gold Cup, or The Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown. He also holds an entry for The bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, and with this many options, he obviously can’t be bet heavily just now, if at all. If he were to line up here though, despite being near the head of the weights, I’d have to give him some serious thought, as in time, he could very well drift away from the handicap sphere.

Willie Mullins has 6 entered, namely Suntiep, Away We Go, Are Ya Right Chief, Vesper Bell, Prince De Beauchene, and Touch The Eden. Had he been given a better ride, then Suntiep may just have taken a closer hand in the 4 Miler at Cheltenham, doing his best work at the end. His runs before that didn’t scream winner of this to me, but he’s lightly raced, and may just be that the trainer has brought him along quietly with a race like this, or that 4 Miler in mind. He looks unexposed, and got to have a good chance of being in the shake up. Away We Go, was a horse I never paid that much attention to, and didn’t consider him for this, or The bet365 Gold Cup last year. He, of course, went on to finish 2nd and 3rd respectively, in those races. Not seen since, and with him holding an entry for both races again, then it’s safe to say he’s good to go, and impossible to rule out. There was the best part of a month between those races last year, but with them only 5 days apart this time round, then he’ll surely only take in one of them. He’s risky therefore, for Ante-Post punters, but come the day, wherever he heads, he’s one for the shortlist. Prince De Beauchene finished exhausted at Aintree, and may just be he’s starting to regress slightly, and he’s not for me. Would be asking a lot of him to turn out in this. Vesper Bell also took in The National, and again, his performance was littered with mistakes. Supporters deserve a reward for sticking by him, but I’ve not seen enough this season, to give him too much consideration, and I’ll pass him over. His owner Rich Ricci also has Touch The Eden entered, and he’s of much more interest. Rattled up a string of fine efforts this season, and he looks a horse with a decent future. Think, in time, he could be better than this level, and another, who if he were mine, he’d be taking up his entry in The Powers Gold Cup. Should he head for this, then the 25’s looks huge. The final entry, Are Ya Right Chief, will struggle to get in.

Of the others who took in The National at Aintree, well Raz De Maree got round, and Lion Na Bearnai, a former winner of this, pulled up a few fences from home, and that surely puts paid to their chances of participation here, never mind actually taking a hand. This seasons Welsh National winner, Mountainous, originally had this as his preferred target over Aintree, but he took that race in anyway. He only got as far as Valentines, and (I think) only ran loose for a circuit, which might entitle him to have a shout here, but I wouldn’t go overboard on him just now. If he were to make the journey, and have softer ground to contend with, then he might be of more interest nearer the time.

As for The Scottish National, well Yes Tom got round, and was in the thick of things till close home. That’s bound to have left it’s mark. Maybe not for this, but he looks a horse worth following next year. Alpha Victor, Edmund Kean, Sole Witness, and Adrenalin Flight all pulled up. Adrenalin Flight went with them most of the way, but the other 3 were never sighted. Surely asking a lot for any of them to land this, and all would have to be passed over for the timebeing.

Dessie Hughes, as well as Aintree runner Raz De Maree, has Golden Wonder entered, and he’s well worth a second look. He’s another horse I really like as a long term prospect for The Galway Plate, and regardless of how he fares here, I’ll keep him in mind for that prize too. He’s been pretty quiet this year, but his comeback run at Fairyhouse last weekend was very encouraging, and I didn’t see anything to put me off him. Although he flopped at Cork in November, his preceding run at Cork was more encouraging, and he had Troytown winner Cootamundra well beat, giving him weight. This was off the back of beating Spring Heeled at Galway. A live outsider who I really fancy taking a chance on, and the 33’s has just about convinced me.

Noel Meade, as well as the aforementioned Ipsos Du Berlais, and Please Talk, has another couple entered. Pandorama looks to have his best days behind him, having looked top class in his youth, and he’s obviously had his problems. He hasn’t won for over 3 years, and he’s difficult to enthuse about. The softer the better for him. His final entry is Mullaghanoe River. Not quite sure he deserves to be as low as 16’s in places, on what he’s achieved so far, and he really needs to keep the errors down. He’s got a couple of runs this season which showed promise, but with concerns over the trip, there’s enough question marks around him, and he doesn’t appeal at the moment, certainly not at 16’s anyway. I’ll just take it on the chin if he gets his head in front. I’m always wary of runners from the yard though, and I suppose he could be interesting, should Paul Carberry get the leg up.

Tony Martin, along with Bog Warrior, has another 5 entered. His Gallant Oscar is the most fancied at 14’s, and it’s not difficult to see why. Won nicely at Naas last time, with a decent field behind him, and this was off the back of landing a hurdle race at Navan. That Navan race wasn’t the hottest, but was a 24 runner affair, so a field of this size shouldn’t phase him, and he looks as if he’s going the right way. Interesting. Sraid Padraig has only appeared twice this season, edging out Cause Of Causes here in November, before running well enough in The Byrne Group Plate at Cheltenham. I think this trip is exactly what he needs, and if here were to head here, then I could see him getting some support. For those with an eye on him, then the 33’s available with Sportingbet just now, might be worth taking. Oscars Well looked destined for great things a couple of years back, and could be seen as something of a surprise entry. This trip is a bit of an unknown, and his record over fences has been patchy, but he’s kept lofty company in the past, and off the back of a couple of moderate spins over hurdles, albeit one in the very competitive Coral Cup, then you just wonder whether this is part of a long term plot. I’m a sucker for horses with his kind of prep, and the 40’s generally available, will surely disappear if this looks like a serious entry. I’ve bet Undertheboardwalk at 28’s for this, and my main concern is whether he can sneak in or not. He caught the eye over hurdles at Cheltenham in November, before taking in The Paddy Power chase where he ran very respectably, finishing 8th, in what is one of the most competitive handicap chases of the season. It was his next run though, that sealed the deal for me, and he’s been on my radar for this since then. The Leapordstown Handicap Chase was another ultra competitive affair, and with another couple of hundred yards, he might have landed it. He eventually finished third, but he had some decent animals behind him, and he wasn’t stopping at the end. I really think he looks tailor made for this, and a wee bit surprised he can still be backed at 33’s. Hopefully he can sneak in and repay my faith/not make me look like a ****. Living Next Door also ran that day at Leapordstown, getting rid of his rider. I had a few quid on him in The 4 Miler at Cheltenham, and he didn’t do too much wrong, eventually finishing just out the frame in 5th. He holds a few other entries, and they obviously think a lot of him, with him holding an entry in The Powers Gold Cup. He certainly looks one not to take lightly wherever he heads. If he turns up for this, it’s also worth bearing in mind his run in The Troytown. Passed though a lot of decent horse near the end, and nailed on for a place at the very least, he tipped up at the last, and was very unlucky.

The Troytown that day, was landed by Cootamundra, who battled on strongly, and had a few other of these entries behind him. He was subsequently hit with a 10lb hike, which has seen him struggle since, though his 5th behind On His Own in The Thyestes doesn’t look so shabby now. Difficult to know what to make of his chances here. A quick glance would suggest he’s set to struggle, having just been dropped a pound since his Troytown victory, however he ran over an inadequate 2 miles 1 last time, and was, not surprisingly, never really in contention. However, maybe worth noting that it was a strange choice of race for him, and he was never really asked a question……to put it kindly. Might just be that was to get him spot on for this, and he’s an interesting outsider at 33’s. Normally travels very strongly in his races, and the ideal type to bet, to lay in running, if that’s your kind of thing. One of only 4 horses I do this with, and planning to do same here, should he turn up.

Behind Cootamundra when he won that day was Goonyella, who was bang there at the end, eventually finishing fifth. A live outsider for Aintree last week, he just missed the cut. He’s a horse I like, and he remains one of potential, certainly based on his form from the tail end of last season, and the beginning of this. Not been out too much recently, but just beaten over hurdles by subsequent Cheltenham Festival winner, Don Poli, giving him weight, and confident he’s got a big run in him. I’ll forgive him his disappointing show in The Welsh National, as trainer Jim Dreaper had serious problems getting him across, and the general feeling was, the journey didn’t do him any favours. Dreaper also has Los Amigos entered. He enjoyed a fine start to the season, and is another who didn’t lose anything in defeat, when runner up to On His Own in The Thyestes. He went off joint favourite that day, and he didn’t really do much wrong. Only been out once since then, and that was when finishing a close third to the promising Gallant Oscar at Naas in March. Another who looks primed for a big run, and you can be sure the 25’s available just now will have dried up, should he make it.

Splitting Gallant Oscar, and Los Amigos at Naas, was Saoirse Dun. Enjoyed a fine time of it in the second half of last season, without getting his head in front, coming up against the likes of Rich Revival, and Panther Claw who were in the form of their lives at the time, and then finishing runner up to Madam Bovary (who looked laid out for the race) at Punchestown, with the likes of Spring Heeled, and Carlingford Lough behind him. Wouldn’t be too disheartened by his 6th behind Folsom Blue at Punchestown in February, and he looks a dark horse at 33’s.

The novices My Murphy, and Foxrock have faced each other a couple of times this year, and both can be given a chance in this. Foxrock is the more fancied of the 2, and as low as 14’s. He’s come out on top against My Murphy the twice they’ve met, and he went to Cheltenham off the back of a very good season, and was no surprise to see him go off favourite for the 4 Miler. Things didn’t go to plan though, and he finished down the field. I’d be willing to forgive him that run, and although his jumping looked a bit sketchy this year at times, on other occasions he’s looked to have the potential to wear down the opposition, and those qualities will come in handy here. As well as My Murphy, he’s had many of these behind him during the season, as well as other subsequent winners. The same applies to My Murphy, who, unlike Foxrock, is coming off the back of a strong performance, winning nicely at Navan last time, and he also had Suntiep behind him earlier in the season. Neither horse was disgraced in The Topaz, with the very decent Carlingford Lough, and Morning Assembly ahead of them.

Heaney is a solid enough handicapper from the Tom Taafe yard, and although hammered for a couple of wins earlier in the season, he certainly didn’t disgrace himself behind the likes of Double Seven, and Spring Heeled in The Munster National. Although that pair probably still have a fair bit of improvement in them, he’d at least be meeting them on much better terms this time around, should they run here, and for a horse who seemed to take in every staying chase in Ireland in 2013, interesting that he’s been given a rest since his respectable run in The Paddy Power. Jamsie Hall also took in The Munster National that day, and fared even better, eventually finishing third. He then won a race at Aintree, before finishing down the field in The Troytown. Probably not the most obvious type, but he’s now 3lbs below his last winning mark, and given a quiet preparation by Gordon Elliot with a couple of spins over hurdles As well as the Cause of Causes, and 3 of the Giggs contingent, Elliot also has Raajih entered. His 3rd behind Double Ross, and Attaglance at Perth in the autumn has a nice look to it, and that was 24 hours after winning at the same track, but enthusiasm is tempered by his lacklustre showing at Cheltenham last time out.

Rich Revival took in one of those hurdle races, contested by Jamsie Hall, and he ran very well, finishing third. He came into the Irish National off the back of 3 win last year, and was very well fancied, but he seemed to be found out off his new mark, and was eventually pulled up. He hardly advertised his credentials in The Paddy Power, or Thyestes, again, pulling up, so was encouraging to see more life about him last over the smaller obstacles. He’s very risky though, and the only other thing in his favour is he’s at least getting close to his last winning mark.

A few outsiders worthy of a quick shout……Grand Jesture is from the Henry De Bromhead yard, and has been running in decent enough company, and showing a modicum of ability. Owned by The Potts, they have a welcome habit of digging out decent horses, and he looks potentially unexposed. Letter Of Credit has been around long enough, but like Grand Jesture, this Jimmy Mangan trained entry has been keeping decent company, and very rarely disgraces himself. Toon River was an eyecatching winner last time out at Gowran Park, showing the type of qualities required for this, but he’s still got to improve again to take a hand here. The same applies to novice Caoimhes Delight, who despite showing decent level of consistency, needs to improve a fair bit to land this. Glenquest looks, on the whole, an unlikely one, but did run his best race for a while last time at Fairyhouse, finishing second to a horse in Jupitor, who I think is a potential improver. None of these scream the winner to me, but in a race like this, god only knows what’s lurking in the background.

There’s a good few more haven’t got a mention, but I think that’s more than enough for now.

Cause Of Causes, as stated, looks a worthy favourite, and has to come in to the reckoning, but I think he’s one for another day.

So many more to consider, but I’ve taken my chances with Undertheboardwalk, but he’ll almost certainly not get in. Alfie Sherrin or Shutthefrontdoor will be main bet, and I’ve added Golden Wonder 33’s each way

GL