Imperial Cup 2014

A race which normally has punters trying to guess which horse can go on to land the bonus at Cheltenham, there’s certainly enough of them with engagements at The Festival.

Bit of a sparse entry, and on the face of it, looks bit short on quality.

First Avenue was a rare winner for me in this last season, but having continued to follow him since, it’s fair to say I’ve given some of it back. He’s a pretty decent dual purpose horse, though he does appear to be rather ground dependent, and the softer the better for him. He’s been a bit disappointing and I’ll probably leave him alone this time unless he gets his ground.

Regal Encore of JP’s is the market leader at 11-4, and no surprise to see him land this en route to The Festival. Initially looked as if he flopped behind Seeyoutmidnight at Hexham in December, but with that horse looking fairly decent after 2 further wins since, the defeat doesn’t look quite as bad. Bags of potential, he looks a worthy favourite.

JP also has Prompter, and Get Back In Line entered, and both these hold multiple entries for Cheltenham. I’ve flagged them up as horses to keep an eye on this year, but both, particularly Prompter, have a few questions to answer. Although he would have hated the ground in The Betfair at Newbury, I still expected a better showing, and the same applies to his run last time in a “Jumpers Bumper”. Preference of the pair, is definitely for Get Back In Line. He looked the part as a novice, and was just getting warmed up, when unseating in The Gerry Feilden. He then disappointed slightly at Ascot, but no shame in getting beaten by Irish Saint, and at 20’s I’d like to keep the faith with him, but I’ll probably wait and see if he’s declared as he’s had his fair share of entries which he hasn’t taken up.

The Pipe Stable are no strangers to attempting to land the bonus, and they’re represented by Baltimore Rock, and Swing Bowler. Baltimore Rock is a model of consistency this winter, and although this assignment is a lot tougher, you’d have to say he’s going the right way, and is as short as 8’s. Swing Bowler is the better known of the 2, and either side of her flop at Cheltenham last season, is a fine third and fifth in last 2 runnings of The Betfair Hurdle. I’d take her over the stablemate at this point, and the 8’s look reasonable about her. Forgiving her run at Cheltenham last year, she’s never ran a bad race.

There were high hopes for Court Minstrel at the start of the season, and his last run behind The New One aside, you’d probably have been looking for better than his 2 down the field performances earlier in the season, albeit in very competitive handicaps. He’s not been dropped for his 3 defeats this season, which seems a bit harsh, so he’s difficult to fancy. However, whether he deserves to be 20’s is another matter, and on his showings last season, that price just may appeal to some. At least this could appear to be the plan, as he’s one who doesn’t hold an entry at The Festival.

Another who’s not heading to Cheltenham, is Fourth Estate, and he’s the only representative from Seven Barrows, which is probably worth noting. Off for over a year and a half before an encouraging comeback behind Ranjaan at Kempton in November. He’s been kept under wraps since, but with the stable starting to send out a few winners again, the 14’s about him, surely can’t last.

Paul Nicholls is responsible for the second and third favourites in Vibrato Valtat, and Lac Fontana. Neither for me at this stage, but I’d have a slight preference for Lac Fontana of the two. He’s won twice this season, and was quite taken with his last run at Cheltenham, but can’t get his run behind The Liquidator out my head, where he was beaten out of sight. He’s got no fewer than 5 entries at Cheltenham, so the suspicion is there, that they’ve got him in mind for landing the bonus. Vibrato’s been coming along nicely this winter without setting the heather alight, he only holds the one entry at Cheltenham, in The County, a race which he may be touch and go to get in, so he may have this as his only serious target. Though he is 5’s in places, and at this stage, it just looks a wee bit skinny.

The baby of the field is Harristown, who’s started off well, and not out the frame so far in his 4 career runs. Plenty of potential there, and I’m always wary of runners from the Charlie Longsdon yard, but I’d prefer to side with one who’s got a bit more experience.

At 16’s, New Years Eve, won’t be short of each way support, especially having only being out the first 2, once in his 6 runs this season. Although he’s not really be running against any world beaters, he’s difficult to discount completely, though he was disappointing in his toughest race to date, at Musselburgh.

Knight of Pleasure is another who was well beaten at Ascot by Irish Saint, and despite looking slightly up against it here, his trainer is a dab hand at getting them ready for these type of prizes. Has bits and pieces of form which gives him a squeak.

Gassin Golf hasn’t won for some time, but his last run, when 5th behind Vendor at Newbury wasn’t the worst, as it was a pretty competitive affair, and if he can build on that, then he shouldn’t disgrace himself.

Little Jon, and Somemothersdohavemhave both clocked up a fair few runs this season without winning, however both finished runner up to decent looking sorts last time out, and coming from top yards, in Nigel Twiston Davies, and Venetia Williams respectively, then they’re both very difficult to discount completely. Little Jon at 20’s looks very appealing for a 5 length beating from the current Triump Hurdle favourite.

The Skyfarmer ran up a 5 timer, and looked a horse of huge promise before coming unstuck in the mud to Irish Saint at Ascot. I was very impressed with him in those earlier victories, and if the ground dried out during the week, then the 20’s currently available may just look a tad generous.

Difficult to stick with one at the 5 day stage, though, as mentioned Regal Encore does look a worthy favourite.

If I knew the ground would dry out, then I’d be snapping up the 20’s about The Skyfarmer, and conversely, if it stayed heavy, then I’d be taking the 33’s for First Avenue.

I’ll leave it alone till I look at the forecasts, but at prices, Get Back In Line, Little Jon, and Fourth Estate look tempting.

GL.