Grand National 2014

Don’t know much about Buckers Bridges sire Pelder but he has Lafontaine on the damside [Papillon, Spot and Ever Blessed] which is pretty good. Only an 8 year old though [and a young 8 year old; February foal] but he came 3rd to OHO in the Bobbyjo [@12 lengths if you take away difference in weight]. Bit interesting, that one.Wayward Prince is one of my current nightmare horses.

I’d consider February to be early for a National Hunt foal, so went and had a look at the foaling dates for the Gold Cup field. Katenko the only one foaled in February, On His Own the latest in July.

One of the papers this morning confirms Scholfield on Teaforthree, ST-D on Tidal Bay, Fehily on Rocky Creek and Mahon on Hawkes Point.

they said they where going to do tests on godsmejudge, but not heard any news since weekend before festival in if anything has come up

vf

We could well be looking at a heavy ground National this year. When was the last one?

Been quite a move for Pineau De Re.

I would automatically think 11yo too old – anyone know the stats?

Has put in some reasonable hurdle runs but I can’t find that much recent form over the bigger obstacles to get too excited about. Looks a shocking price now.

Price has only come in again cause that bloke on TML tipped it yesterday morning. Backed it at 50/1 but wouldn’t back it at the price it is now and even then I thought it was more likely to win a hurdle race at Cheltenham. I’d still rather back an 11 year old than an 8 year old. Mind you am no closer to working out who might win than I was months ago but am still kicking myself for not backing T43 ages ago.

I don’t have the information to hand Stilvi, but I went through age stats a few years ago, from 1983 onwards. Found age groups won pretty much the number of races you’d expect – when taking in to account how many horses run of each age.

9 year olds were the "most successful" numerically, but there’s also been more 9 year olds to run in the race than any other. Just won the number of races their percentage of the field suggested they should.

One interesting stat,
No 13 year old had won in that time, but so few tried that just one win from a 13 year old turns "the worst" age" in to "THE very best" age group.

Conclusion:
Any Grand National age statistic is only a "coincidence", all runners should be judged on their own merits.

I had stuck with two all along. Tidal bay and Seabass, unfortunately Seabass managed to get injured and is out. I hope Tidal Bay stays well, as he is my idea of the winner, but I’m going to try for a reserve at hopefully a decent price, before they start to shorten up, as they invariably do.

I like horses that take to Aintree, and last year Across The Bay was running a cracker of a race until he hit 4 out and was headed, he carried on but hit 2 out and fell away to finish 14th. That was off 150 and he runs off 148 this year.

Two races back (Dec 2013) he won over 3m 4f at Haydock on heavy ground and won running on to take the race in the final 200 yards. I don’t have a worry about him getting the trip as much as he needs to be tidier at the end of the race, as he unseated McGuire in his warm up race at Haydock in February. If he clouts a couple at the end of 4m+, it is hard to keep up the momentum. However, no better training family to get a horse ready for the National than the McCain’s.

At 50/1 with a few bookies, that is worth a few quid. It’s a pity Betvictor has him at 40/1 as they are offering 6 places. The best outside of them is Skybet who are 50/1 and 5 places. I could wait to see if he stays at that and hope for others to go out to 6 places, or Betvictor to drift him out to 50s, but I don’t see that happening so I’m chancing Skybet, who very annoyingly are not NRNB yet.

McCain said ‘last year he was messed about by a loose horse but never looked happy with the fences or the fast ground; he’s better in small fields where he can dominate’. Mind you, he’s also said they’re training him for the race this year with a view to him staying better. Make of that what you will

I don’t seem to understand it either Moe, in fact I have no idea what McCain is on about.

I watched the race again to see if my recollection of how things went was a bit rosy spectacled, but after watching it from start to finish, if anything it was even better than I had remembered. He was untidy at the 3rd fence, but after that, with a couple of very minor errors, he jumped round extremely well, and to my uneducated eye seemed to be relishing the race until he clouted the second last which put paid to any chance he had, although he was tiring at that point.

As for being better in small fields, he has won 8 races, only 3 of which were single figure fields (5, 7 and 9). The other five were 10, 15, 17, 17 and 19 runners.

Is McCain playing it’s chances down so their are no expectations of the horse. I’d find that a bit strange as I normally find him quite upfront. Don’t get me wrong, this is not one of your fancied contenders, but I think the horse deserves a bit more credit for his running last year. I doubt McCain would put him through it all again if he truly thought the horse never looked happy with the fences. I still think at 50/1 he is overpriced.