Grand National 2014

I’m a bit perplexed as to why Kauto Stone is entered he surely won’t see this trip out? He looked out on his feet over 2 and half last time out, albeit he did go off like the clappers. It would be a good story with him being half brother to Kauto Star but you can’t help think their is a better race somewhere out their at one of the 3 festivals which he has more chance of winning.

As much as I like Tidal Bay a part of me does hope a younger horse wins this year, winning the National seems to becoming a bit of a jinx. With the previous two winners not turning up the next year for various reasons, I’d love to see another dual winner, who was the last one? I know Comply or Die went close.

I suppose the increased weight given to a winner would put paid to their chances of winning again, but with such high class horses as Long Run and Tidal Bay running it would have pushed so many horses out of the handicap that a cleverly campaigned horse could run the following year with a decent weight, so it’s a pity that Auroras Encore got injured [hope he’s doing ok]. One thing that has crossed my mind recently is the decent prices the winners have had over the past few years, at a time when good prices for handicaps seem to have all but disappeared. I’d always thought of the National winner having a SP of 14/1 on the day, but they’ve been a lot higher recently.

I suppose the increased weight given to a winner would put paid to their chances of winning again, but with such high class horses as Long Run and Tidal Bay running it would have pushed so many horses out of the handicap that a cleverly campaigned horse could run the following year with a decent weight, so it’s a pity that Auroras Encore got injured [hope he’s doing ok]. One thing that has crossed my mind recently is the decent prices the winners have had over the past few years, at a time when good prices for handicaps seem to have all but disappeared. I’d always thought of the National winner having a SP of 14/1 on the day, but they’ve been a lot higher recently.

Peter may well be right, hype has a greater say in the National, but looking at the market…

If taking all last year’s SP’s and subtracting their probable bookie’s mark ups (so as the over-round adds up to 100% not the actual 148%)… ie 11/2 = fair odds of 15.4%, so a bookies 11/2 shot has (in the market’s opinion) got roughly a fair 13% chance, 13 + bookies mark up = 15.4% = 11/2 offered. 50/1 = a fair 2%, so bookies 50/1 is roughly a fair 1% chance, 1 + bookies mark up = 2% = 50/1 offered. (Size of a horse’s bookmaker mark up progressively decreases the bigger the price).

Because there are a lot more outsiders in this race than any other – their combined price is quite short. ie there were five 50/1 shots in last year’s race, so 1% x 5 = means there was probably something like a 5% chance of an un-named 50/1 shot winning. Therefore, adding up all horses from 16/1+ means that group had around a 45% fair 6/5 chance of winning (and that’s without a bookies mark up) those shorter than 16/1 having around 55% fair 5/6 chance of winning…

So if making an adjustment to make the above figure 50-50 (not 45-55) I’d say you’re dead right to expect a 14/1 winner Moehat!

But taking it further: The chance of there being a big priced horse winning the National are more than many people realise. On last year’s evidence:
Any 25/1 or bigger winner roughly a combined 29% fair 5/2.
Any 40/1 or bigger winner had roughly a 15% fair 11/2.

So if the markets were correct and; considering the favourite had roughly a fair 13% chance, the chances of having a winner priced @ 40/1 or more (15%) were better than the favourite winning (13%).

The problem is finding the right outsider to back.
I can provide how I got to those figures in more detail if wanted. Didn’t think I’d better bore you further.

“Three” so far:

Teaforthree

has a mark 2 lbs better than when third in this last year, 149 instead of 151. Looks a generous mark. Jumped brilliantly up to a horrendous mistake at the last. But for which he’d have done quite a bit better. Also seemed to idle, rallying as Cappa Bleu passed him. Up to then had been progressive and won’t be a surprise to see another improved performance. Has enough speed to lie up early (often an advantage) and stamina no problem. Going shouldn’t hinder Teaforthree either, whatever it is.
Said by trainer beforehand not thought entirely ready in Welsh National and ridden by a claimer. Ran well enough for a long way, losing ground in straight as fitness told. Although suspect the restricted campaign this year just as much to do with Rebecca’s form than anything else. Much better now and hopefully this will continue until April. Teaforthree has an outstanding chance.
Backed him immediately after last year’s National and see no reason to change my mind now. Double figure prices are worth taking. Ran really well at the weekend over an inadequate trip. Jumps, stays, goes on any ground, genuine, used to big fields, ran well in the race before and well handicapped. What more do you want?

Godsmejudge

won last year’s Scottish National by 4 lengths giving a stone (including 7 lbs of jockey’s claim) to runner-up Big Occasion. With 9 lengths back to third Mister Marker, to whom he gave 6 lbs. Big Occasion had won the Midlands Grand National by 6 lengths and 10 off a 6 lbs lower mark in his previous race, not run since… And Mister Marker subsequently successful off just a 1 lb lower mark. Godsmejudge has gone up 9 lbs which does not look harsh. Add to that the fact his normally superb jumping will stand him in excellent stead and only in a second season over fences. Probably has more improvement in him.
Went as if best horse/best handicapped horse on reappearance off this 148 mark over 3m3f110yrds. Only 5th but did by far the best of those up there from the start in what was probably an overly strongly run race. Lead changed many times in last two furlongs with winner Alvorada coming from the clouds.
Then (last time out) pulled up. Doesn’t sound great but Kingy was just about to go through a long losing run; ended up shutting up shop for a time. Good reason to ignore the form/run and stable seem back in the winners now.
Has won on each of his final starts in all three seasons to race, goes well in Spring on going just on the soft side of good (which they aim for these days at Aintree). Only the one possible negative; although perfectly genuine hasn’t always found a great deal off the bridle, so will be putting a lay bet on the machine at around 3/1 for the in-running market.

Cape Tribulation

won the Argento last season from an admittedly not at his best Imperial Commander. Probably best races to rate him on are the Gold Cup, beaten less than 22 lengths by Boston Bob in 5th; and immediately prior to Argento, the Rowland Meyrick (3m1f) off a mark of 142. Giving Mr Moonshine 5 lbs (including 3 lbs claim) and an 11 length beating. Could reoppose at level weights. After those three performances Cape Tribulation was given a mark of 165, now a massive 16 lbs lower.
Inadequate test in Betfred Bowl final start last season, 5th behind First Lieutenant. Never going and Pulled up reappearance in Charlie Hall and finished last in Hennessey. Did not look good. However, a 3rd of 5 finishers in this season’s Rowland Meyrick off 153 much more encouraging. By far his best run of the season. Beaten 12 3/4 lengths trying to give winner Cloudy Too 10 lbs. Winner a clear second in Ascot Chase at the Weekend. Even on that form Cape Tribulation isn’t out of it and if it’s a sign of a return to his best… is absolutely thrown in.
Back in 2012 won at both Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals, so we know he goes well in the Spring, in big fields and at the course, from soft to good ground. Not run at a real extreme trip, but best run was over furthest he’s been. 50/1 is too big to ignore.

EDIT: Oops! Cape Tribulation gone for a walk in the market on betfair, had a haematoma on his leg. Don’t back it!

massinis Maguire ran today after long lay off, he needed to finish in top 4 to qualify, he was pulled up

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form updated

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I’m looking forward to seeing Seabass run at Fairyhouse on Saturday. I don’t expect him to win, I think the 2m5f is just enough to give him a good blow before the big day. I think he has been wrapped in cotton wool for the National this year. I don’t think Ted Walsh would waste a year with him unless he thought the horse was a potential National winner. Generally 33/1 with the main bookies, a couple of the smaller ones quoting 40/1….that’s huge in my book.

For once I’m pretty happy sticking with two for the race, Seabass and Tidal Bay. I hope that either of them wins, but I’m pretty sure I’ll get a good run for my money regardless.

When I was snooping on Liams Twitter page he mentioned one horse that would be better going further but I can’t remember which one it was