2014 Flat Bulletin

One has to scratch about in obvious and occasionally unusual territory to locate winners and here’s an offering based on big-race entries all based on Irish racing. It’s a tried and tested formula for success and among its devotees is Marten Julian who’s been writing plenty of interesting racing copy for years.

I’m not a big fan of the top Irish trainers on account of a general lack of value in their charges’ starting prices but often a big entry will highlight something that may be worth taking on trust. We’ll see!

Irish 2000 Guineas

Aidan O’Brien goes mob-handed into virtually every Group One worth targeting but it may be worth noting that from a plethora of current entries for Ireland’s first classic only two of the 3yo’s remain unraced.

Cougar Mountain – 3yo Fastnet Rock (Aidan O’Brien)

Believe it or not the dam of this colt is a half-sister to both Zafonic and Zamindar and was bought by Anne Marie O’Brien’s breeding outfit (Whisperview Trading) in 2008-carrying a Hawk Wing foal-for just €13,000! Now she obviously has only three legs, one eye and is lesbian-curious but nonetheless from at least 8 previous foals she has produced 3 winners of 10 races the best of which was the Willie Haggas trained Roaring Forte whose best run was in winning a G2 heritage handicap in 2009 earning a Racing Post rating of 111. There are lots of tricks of the trade that prospective buyers employ to try to unearth a bargain at the sales but for just €13,000 this mare was some speculative investment even if she never produced another foal. That Coolmore allowed her to visit their great white antipodean hope Fastnet Rock in 2010 was a bonus but not half the result that subsequently transpired when the Coolmore lieutenants decided

Cougar Mountain

had enough looks and promise to run in the colours of The Three Wise Men (Magnier/Tabor/Smith) for which they, presumably, paid a multiple many times the mare’s purchase price.

I actually don’t live too far from one of (many of) Aidan O’Brien’s private stud farms and I wonder what other progeny may exist from this dam. Obviously a nicely-bred filly would be worth a fortune should

Cougar Mountain

ever embellish the page-or even not! It seems he has every chance of doing so as the unraced colt has entries in the Irish Guineas, St. James’ Palace, Kings Stand, Diamond Jubilee, Coral Eclipse and the July Cup. It might be mischievous to suggest his range of entries gives his wife’s broodmare every chance.

This is not all about nepotism or insider dealing by the way as Anne Marie (and her father Joe Crowley) bred and sold Rock Of Gibraltar to Coolmore as a yearling back in the day and we know how much success and sport he provided us all with.

Racing Post:

He’s a colt we like a lot. At one stage last season we thought he was our best juvenile but he had a setback and we were unable to get a run into him. Unfortunately, he had another hold-up early this year but he’s coming along nicely and we’re hoping to get a run into him before Royal Ascot. He’s very smart and we’ll probably be looking at races from 5f up to 1m for him. We’ve no definite plans for him yet but he could be one for the Jersey Stakes

.-18/04/2014.

Horseguardsparade – colt by Montjeu

Aidan’s only other unraced colt left in the Irish Guineas is the Montjeu colt

Horseguardsparade

which Demi O’Byne gave £450,000 at Tattersalls in October 2012. He was bred by the German-owned Newsells Park Stud and is out of a French 1m 2yo winner (RPR 82) who in turn is a sister to French 2,000 Guineas/Marois winner Vahorimix and 1m1f Listed winner Vadalix from a typically-strong Aga Khan line. I surmise that the covering may have been part of a foal-share arrangement and the public auction probably ended the partnership. He also still holds entries in three prestigious 12f Group 1 and 2 events. Little more to offer at present and the backstory doesn’t come near the page of

Cougar Mountain

.

Weld Arab – colt by Shamardal (Dermot Weld)

Weld has trained horses for Hamdan Al Maktoum/Shadwell for at least two decades and its just possible that Mustajeeb – a dual scorer – might just turn out to be the best of all of them. He’s likely to run in the best one-mile events this year and Weld thinks highly of him.

To allow a horse to be named “

Weld Arab

” which, to me, has an almost pejorative tone strikes me as curious but, nonetheless, he is the only unraced Weld entry left in the Irish Guineas. The horse has the usual strong Shadwell pedigree and this is the first of the immediate family to land in Rosewell House on the Curragh. The winning dam is a half-sister to a 1000 Guineas winner and the red-hot Nashwan and Unfuwain are close up on the page.

Weld Arab’s

previous three siblings were apparent flops but I do get the distinct impression that Weld is being sent a higher grade yearling by Shadwell these days.

Shura Council – colt by Malibu Moon (John F Egan)

It is hard to get enthused about

Shura Council

as his rookie trainer has yet to make much of an impact. Nonetheless, he has a reasonably strong US pedigree but his owner (Friarstown Stud owned by a wealthy middle eastern patron) failed to sell him as a breeze-up pinhooker last spring.

He might be something to keep an eye on at a modest level of competition. The Guineas entry looks either folly, vanity or has possibly been overlooked. Otherwise there are less expensive ways to enjoy a day out at Irish HQ.

I find many of the early-closing restricted sales races to be of little interest because every entry is merely based on a yearling being entered for public auction and offers little insight into trainers’ early opinions. As a result of this it makes the entries for the Curragh’s

6f G1 Phoenix Stakes

– due to be run in early August – far more interesting as it offers some ammunition in assessing juveniles and respective trainers’ early hopes. This is the first Group One for juveniles run in the British Isles and can be further analysed (compare and contrast) when entries for the Curragh’s G2 Railway Stakes and National/Moyglare (G1) entries are published.

This year sees 51 entries in total (compared to 61 in 2013) and a total of 19 fillies (18-2013) are included in the total.

David Wachman’s entries for his 2yo’s in general tend to be something of a bellwether and he rarely wastes his patrons’ cash. I know this from personal experience in that a filly I part-owned some years ago received an entry for this particular race and although she never raced as a 2yo she was a black-type winner at three and four. Last year Wachman had two entries and these were the eventual winner Sudirman and also the maiden winner Pleasant Bay so it suggests the strongest heed should be paid to his nominees. This year he has just the one entry:

Swordfight – colt by Mastercraftsman (D Wachman)

MV Magnier gave his uncle Charles O’Brien’s operation £290,000 for this offering at Tattersalls last October. He’s a half-brother to 8 winners the best of which were a French 7f G3 scorer and the 2007 winner of the Goffs Million who also ran third in that year’s Coventry. On past experience we can safely assume that this will be one of Wachman’s more forward and promising juveniles.

Ger Lyons had three entries last year of which Sniper and Third Dimension have both won maidens and Fog Of War looks a certainty to score soon also so we can assume his entries are of the required standard. Unfortunately two of the trio have already run (and run well!-Capella Sansevero and Packing Go Go) so we are just left with one unraced colt:

Game Set Dash – colt by Arch (Ger Lyons)

Lyons is lucky enough to train for Pearl Bloodstock and David Redvers bought this fellow for $150,000 at the massive Keeneland September yearling sale last year. He is from a French/German line and his best half-brother from 5 winners was a German-bred 9f specialist in the US who amassed over $1.3m in earnings between 2008-2010. One can expect him to win races.

I also glanced through the entries for evidence of highly-thought of 2yo’s by first-season sires and the results are fairly unremarkable. Coolmore’s big hope is Rip Van Winkle and on nomination cost based on matings of 2011 he can expect competition from Makfi and Lope de Vega neither of which are represented in this Group One. Rip Van Winkle has two nominations – both, unsurprisingly, trained in Ballydoyle – in Dick Whittington (a good second on his debut at Naas last night) and the unraced filly I Am Beautiful of which more on her anon.

There are what I would classify as three eye-catching unraced entries from “small” yards and these could be vanity projects or just possibly have some decent ability.

Seaforth – colt by Acclamation (John J Murphy)

I often think that Murphy can run his horses to death but he did produce the lightly-raced colt Big Time at this time last year to win a Naas maiden very impressively and he was subsequently second in the Phoenix Stakes. He’s not been seen since although he still holds an entry for the Irish Guineas.

If lightning is to strike twice it will be in the shape of

Seaforth

who Murphy bought at Tattersalls last October for £25,000. A fourth foal, two of his three siblings are modest middle-distance winners for Charlie Hills and Andrew Balding. From yet another Aga Khan family that were mostly trained by John Oxx the twice-raced dam is related to at least six winners the best of which were a 6f listed winner and a 7f G3 Concorde Stakes winner. There is very little evidence that this immediate family are precocious enough to win at two but obviously Murphy has some useful yardsticks at home these days.

Angel Bay – filly by Bahamian Bounty (Sheila Lavery)

The trainer will not be familiar to many as she has trained just three winners since starting out last year. However, she is also, significantly, the owner of Eddie Lynam’s very useful Viztoria and

Angel Bay

represents her as a yearling she failed to move on last autumn. All of Lavery’s three winners have come in handicaps so this might be a filly to watch in nurseries as the season progresses.

Daisy Walker – filly by Azamour (J R “Shay” Barry)

Barry was a journeyman jumps jockey who broke many a punters’ heart and he is now turning his hand to the training game being based on the famous “Owning Hill” in County Kilkenny from where Joe Crowley produced a host of winners and daughters!

He seems to have attracted the patronage of Iverk Stud’s owner, Max Morris, whose late wife bred the 1999 English Derby winner Oath and the stud continues to house a select band of mares. Daisy Walker is from this very family out of a Caerleon mare who won a 12f maiden for the same owners in 2000, trained by David Elsworth, her only year to race.

The dam has been a prolific broodmare and from 8 previous foals to make the track no less than 6 of them are winners and it is ironic that the only filly to race was retained by Morris (all the colts were sold on) and she proved best of the lot winning 4 races including the 2011 10f Group 2 Blandford Stakes and is a very valuable uterus returned home to breed. The dam is a half-sister to the afore-mentioned Oath and Pelder (among 8 winning siblings) so

Daisy Walker

is a fine specimen indeed for Barry to train in his first year. It will be fascinating to see how he copes with her.

Incidentally, he also has charge of Akira, previously trained by Eoin Doyle, for the same owner. Akira is a daughter of a Darley mare that cost Morris €65,000 in 2007 and she threatens to have a successful 2014 holding a couple of Group entries at present. Eoin Doyle must have been livid to lose her as he managed to get her to win her 7f maiden and be listed placed over one-mile last year.

I will review the remaining entries of Kevin Prendergast, Dermot Weld, Eddie Lynam and, of course, Ballydoyle in due course.

Phoenix Stakes -Group One

(continued)

Kevin Prendergast’s best training days are probably behind him but Shadwell continues to show him remarkable loyalty. He is still getting support in terms of numbers each year but, based on results fot the past four or five seasons, horses of the calibre of Mustameet and Haatef are not finding their way to Friarstown any longer.

Mufrad – colt by New Approach (Kevin Prendergast)

Prendergast trained the dam for the same Shadwell/Maktoum ownership to win twice over one-mile and she ended her career on an OR of 94. She failed on her only (and final) start in a stakes event. Mufrad is her first foal. She had cost Shadwell €400,000 as a yearling in 2008 and is a sibling to five other winners (from five runners) none of whom won beyond one mile. However, for me, the real beauty in this pedigree is a dam-line tracing back to the Queen’s 1000 Guineas winner in 1974, Highclere, and this family has produced such stars as Height Of Fashion, Nashwan, Unfuwain and the mighty Deep Impact. It will only take a modicum of this ability to transfer to make

Mufrad

a winning proposition.

Tamadhor – colt by Arcano (Kevin Prendergast)

This colt, by first-season sire Arcano, has very similar characteristics to Mufrad in that he is a first foal out of a winning dam (also trained by KP to win 9f maiden) and she, in turn, is a half-sister to two very nice stakes winners (Group 2 6f Cherry Hinton winner and Group 3 7f Tyros Stakes) so these exploits give

Tamadhor

very chance of being a winning 2yo.

Eddie Lynam is a likeable trainer with a good turn of phrase for the racing hacks and has been one of the division II trainers to have kept going successfully over the last six or seven challenging years here in Ireland. His “Power” sprinters need no introduction but he has also done well with fillies such as Viztoria, Vallado and Pearl Of Africa.

He has three early entries for the Phoenix and all are fillies and all are worth a closer look when they start racing:

Anthem Alexander – filly by Starspangledbanner

Owned by a branch one of the country’s leading stud operations Anthem Alexander is a home-bred daughter of the leading sprinter Lady Alexander (5f G3 Molecomb Stakes winner) who has already produced five winners from six runners with the best, by far, being the sprinter Dandy Man one of Con Collins’ principal flagbearers before he retired in 2006. Being by the Australian first-season sire who was a spectacular success on his introduction to northern hemisphere racing she may excel over 5f & 6f.

Iffraja – filly by Iffraaja

Another nice pedigree and it sees Pearl Bloodstock teaming up with Chryss O’Reilly in a £115,000 investment partnership.

Iffraja

is the second foal of a four-time 6f winner and she has already produced a Tommy Stack-trained 6f Curragh handicap winner in Great Minds. The dam is a half-sister to a Group One winning sprinter in the mare Pipalong who changed hands for £600,000 as a broodmare prospect and has been a modest success at stud so far for Coolmore.

Pearl Power – filly by Dutch Art

She cost Lynam €50,000 and will run in the colours of Sabrina Power who is part of the Paddy Power conglomerate. They have been very lucky owners with the likes of Sole Power and Slade Power on the go at the same time.

Pearl Power

is a half-sister to a dual 6f scorer and is out of a three-time winning sprinter who just happens to be a half-sister to one of Lynam’s current stars and globetrotters, Balmont Mist, who is a useful tool over 5f & 6f (second in the 2013 6f Golden Shaheen) so no surprise she was a dog-eared note in his 2013 Doncaster catalogue.

I have no particular affinity with the two unraced Dermot Weld entries who are from stoutly-bred Aga Khan families so this leaves my final thoughts on the Ballydoyle/Coolmore axis of power and their multiple entries.

If this outfit was political it would be aligned to the “Dubya” neo-cons of recent times such is the bellicose-sounding nature of their entries this year. Names like Battle Of Marathon, Rule The Waves, Siege Of Orleans, The Great War, U S Navy Seal and War Envoy can only point to one conclusion: the juvenile contingent this year is mainly based on colts sired by War Front with eight of the eighteen entries representing this sire. Fastment Rock has four nominees with rookie Rip Van Winkle (2), Oasis Dream, Giant’s Causeway, Mastercraftsman and Exceed And Excel also represented. This splurge on the Claiborne stallion comes hot on the heels of their success with War Command and Declaration Of War last season.

The priciest War Front’s have been The Great War ($1m), Treaty Of Rome ($2.5m) and U S Navy Seal ($0.8m).

Eight of the entries have raced already so this leaves me with ten to select from and as many of these are US-breds I am reluctant to forecast greatness for unfamiliar pedigrees.

Five of Aidan’s entries are fillies and, surprisingly, four of them have already run without success. This leaves an unraced Rip Van Winkle filly who is the second entry for this first-season-sire. His only male entry is the promising Dick Whittington who was an unlucky second recently.

I Am Beautiful – filly by Rip Van Winkle

A partnership that includes the Niarchos family, this filly’s grandmother is the brilliant Miesque and I Am Beautiful is a half-sister to dual Group One-winning filly Rumplestiltskin who won a Moyglare and Prix Marcel Boussac in 2005. Every chance to make it.

U S Navy Seal – colt by War Front

I must confess I like this name and the colt cost $800,000 as a foal in 2012. It’s unusual for Coolmore to buy prospective racehorses as foals and one suspects they were scared of a scarcity value back then. They did buy many War Front yearlings at more sensible prices in 2013 as it transpired as well as the sale toppers already mentioned.

U S Navy Seal

looks to have a very strong Grade 1 pedigree and I suspect one of the more “attractive”, reserved names was retained for him. My 2014 “housewife’s choice” so to speak!

I will flag the declarations in advance if I get the time and will revisit the selections as forfeit stages come and go and other major two-year-old races close.

This wouldn’t be the greatest effort in terms of results I ever made and up to yesterday 20 of the 27 nominees had run with just 8 of them winning for an overall loss at LSP.

The Good:

Anthem Alexander

(thank you Nenni-a rare pearl unfortunately), Cogar Mountain (see below) and I Am Beautiful.

The Bad:

Mizzava

(bloody fillies who get cute or sour or fed-up!)and

Weld Arab

(Galway handicap failure for DK).

The Downright Ugly:

Swordfight:

A Wachman G1 entry (been running in decent class with good collateral racing form) who gets into a nursery at Gowran last night off just 78, is backed, and yet runs like a drain-WAIL, WAIL, WAIL!!! (Can someone please reassure me that the Longfield trainer’s horses are under the weather and that my cash is only on loan?)…….please?

Califante:

what’s most important for an owner of fillies? Answer: black-type – secured at Fairyhouse on 2 July so, job done!

Unfortunately

Califante

was loitering with serious intent on a mark of 75 prior to this run (rated 99 less than 2 years ago and the recent tumble was Curley-esque) and is now 97! End of punting interest in Califante whatever lies ahead.

Hopefully all is not lost and the following will pay a serious dividend in the highest company before long:

Odeliz:

has been running very well all year and just needs soft ground and a little luck to win big. I hope they target soft-ground races in Ireland and England rather than abroad which seems to be the plan at the moment. They’re surely unlikely to get optimum ground conditions if they run in the Canadian EP Taylor Stakes. I’d love to see her in G1 matron Stakes at Leopardstown if the ground is right.

Cougar Mountain:

has been impressive and could be anything, especially as a sprinter. What a mare purchase for literally buttons!