Becher Chase 2014

I should leave this race well alone, as after making a good few quid off it last year, I’ll no doubt revert to type, and take a total doing. Had 2 placed in it last year, but only ever bet the winner once, but I’ll never learn, so here goes…….

Last years winner Chance Du Roy heads the market as low as 9’s, and following another great spin round in The National, where he finished 6th, it’s difficult to be too negative about him. Nothing wrong with his run behind Restless Harry, and Teaforthree at Ascot either, so he’s got strong credentials for this. Very easy to draw a line through his run at Haydock, as that was a proper slog, and didn’t look at all suitable for him. Another possible negative would be his run in the 2013 Topham, where he finished down the field, and I thought he looked just a little moody that day, but if we’re looking at previous runs here, then that’s cancelled out by his second behind Always Waining in the 2012 Topham. Clearly plenty going for him then, and the 12’s with Betvic looks decent for each way punters.

There’s a few battling it out for second favourtism around the 10’s to 12’s mark. Mendip Express wouldn’t really be for me, and he was a big disappointment for many in The Scottish National, and this was off the back of a trouncing at Cheltenham in January. He’s race fit I suppose, with a win in low key hurdle at Warwick recently, but I don’t think he looks that great value at the moment on what he’s actually achieved.

I really liked Balbriggan for this, should he have missed the cut in The Troytown, but he scraped in, going on to win very impressively. He was a nice winner for me that day, and though he’s been hit with a whopping 9lb rise, it’s not enough to put me off, and I really should have some of my winnings back on just now at the 12’s. He’s also entered up for The Welsh National though, so I’ll hold off to see if he’s declared for this, and I’ll no doubt miss the 12’s should he make it. Difficult to ignore is fellow Irish challenger Goonyella. This would appear to be the target, with April in mind, and there’s no chance he’ll be anything like 16’s on the day. He missed out by 1 spot in running in The National last season, where he was quietly fancied, and you can be sure they won’t want a repeat of that scenario. He ran many a fine race in defeat last season, and the only blip being his below par run at Chepstow. Excuses can be made for that though, with him having had a nightmare trip over. His return over hurdles the other week should have him spot on for this.

The Paul Nicholls yard could be represented by Mon Parrain, and Just A Par. I’d rather be with Just A Par, who was behind The Young Master, last time out at Wincanton. He was stuffed here in April, in the race won by Holywell, but his run in The RSA wasn’t without promise, and although he’s unlikely to carry my cash, I wouldn’t be in a rush to write him off either. Mon Parrain won at Cheltenham in April, but for a horse who looked destined for the top nearly 4 years ago, and finished second in The Topham, he’s impossible to predict, and I couldn’t consider him, certainly not after his last run. At 25’s , he’ll make me look daft should he land it, but I’m afraid he’s too unpredictable nowadays for me.

I like to keep an eye on Lucinda Russell runners at Aintree, and she’s got the very useful Green Flag in the line up. Entitled to come on for his season opener behind Many Clouds at Carlisle, in a race that was way too short for him. Cracking 4th at The Festival, and ran well for a very long way in The Scottish National. He’s got a big prize in him, and no reason why he can’t figure here. Trip looks ideal, and he’s shortlist material, especially at 16’s.

It’s been a long time since Our Father caught the eye, and last season was a write off, though I’d easily forgive him finishing out the frame at Haydock in his slog at Haydock. Subsequently though, he’s been given a proper chance by the handicapper. He’s surely better than he showed last year, and quite simply, with a drop in the weights like that, and from a stable who’ll know how to take advantage of it, I just can’t leave him alone. 16’s a great price. His stablemate, The Package, also gets an entry. Seems to have been around for years, and his third behind Holywell, and Ma Filleule, at the Festival is difficult to knock. Would have liked to have seen him closer in The National though, where he could only finish 12th, and the jockey reckoned he hated it here in the 2010 National, so he remains risky. Didn’t run too badly last month at Cheltenham though, so not totally out of it. Should he be heading here, he might be worth risking a few quid at 28’s, 29’s on the machine. The type of horse who’ll get well backed should he make the final line up. He’ll certainly be nowhere near that price on the day.

Another who seems to be around for years is Burton Port. Once thought of as a Gold Cup horse, if he’s still got his old spark, then off 145 he’d be very nicely treated. He might get a few detractors following his seasonal debut here in October, but that should have blown the cobwebs away, and no surprise to see Jonjo get plenty of improvement out of him since then. Not too difficult to recall his gallant effort in the The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April, and he could be a serious player come Saturday. Like The Package, I’d expect his price to plummet should he head here, and no surprise to see him go off single figures, so might be worth a try at the 20’s.

The last time Highland Lodge won, he trounced Our Father at Cheltenham, but that was nearly 2 years ago, though like Our Father, he’s plummeted in the weights as a result. I’m just a bit concerned at the number of poor runs he’s had, and he’s always very well touted. His fourth in last years Hennessy is easily his best run in the last year, and if he could come here in the same heart, the off his current mark, he could make a mockery of the 20’s.

Scottish National hero Al Co surely has the big one as the main target in April, and I suspect this could be more of a “sighter” for him. Very low key return of over hurdles at Haydock last week, and he’s surely one for the spring. His stablemate Ballybough Gorta is a very unpredictable character, but he managed 4th in this last year, and Peter Bowen is very much a trainer to keep a note of here, and the 28’s looks a fair each way price.

Just ahead of him in this last year was Mr Moonshine, who did me proud, running a screamer to finish third. He followed that up with a couple of victories, before running well for a very long way in The National. He seemed to run out of petrol that day, so this should be more suitable. Yes, he’s very high in the weights, but he loves it here, and ran very well behind Wishfull Thinking here in The Old Roan, so I’m just a bit surprised to see him as high as 25’s. I’m tempted. He was ahead of Across The Bay that day, who then went on to lead the field a merry dance in The National, before almost getting carried out by a loose horse going out on the second circuit. So unlucky, and he deserves a change of fortune. He seems feasibly treated, and definitely one if the more obvious ones. Real chance. His stablemate, Kruzlhinin is harder to enthuse about, and he’s not been seen since never landing a blow in The National. Not consistent enough for me anyway, though probably foolish to dismiss out of hand any runners from the McCain yard in this.

Renard was a staying on second last time out, and what was most important about that, was that it finally meant he qualified for running in The Grand National. Now off 142, I’d be a tad surprised that they’d blow his mark for that, so I couldn’t bet him for this with any confidence. I bet him for The National last year in the hope he’d get qualified, but it wasn’t to be, and he remains on my radar for this seasons renewal. I’ll watch with interest should he head here on Saturday. He’s got the talent to land this, and jumped nicely round here in last years Topham, but I’ll just take the gamble that April is the plan.

I bet Knock A Hand last month and was a bit disappointed with his 3rd. His trainer can get them ready for these big chases though, and if he made the line up, I wouldn’t write him off too quickly, for all he doesn’t look the best treated. Still reckon he’s one for later in the month though, and got a notion he might run well at Chepstow, in the Welsh National.

It’s over 2 and a half years since Saint Are won, but his run behind Sam Winner at Cheltenham last month, was much more like it, and no coincidence that he’s really came down in the weights recently. He also ran with a lot of credit in the 2013 Grand National, finishing 9th. He’ll run here 15lbs below the mark he ran off that day, and that should make a huge difference. If he can reproduce his run at Cheltenham, then he looks a live contender. I’ve had a go at 24’s, & 25’s, and very hopeful of a big run, now he’s been given the green light from his trainer.

Nigel Twiston Davies certainly targets this race, and he’s had plenty of big performances from his runners in it. Interesting then, that he sends a sole candidate, in Benbens. He was in fine form last season, and he’s continued it this term. Started off with a respectable fourth in a competitive chase at Chepstow, before narrowly going down to Charingworth at Cheltenham. On his previous run, Charingworth had only found the very well handicapped The Young Master too good for him, and he had Troytown winner, Balbriggan, back in third. That bodes well for Benbens, and he looks very appealing, at the widely available 20’s.

Shakalakaboomboom ran well for a very long way in the 2012 National, before running out of steam near the business end. That prompted suggestions that this race would be ideal for him, but he returned last season after a spell on the sidelines, and showed next to nothing, including pulling up in The National, having never been in contention. He’s hard to fancy after that.

Oscar Time loves it round here, and he’s been placed twice in The National. He’s now in the veteran stages, but I suspect he’s got one last hurrah in him, and despite his advancing years, I could see him getting involved. Unseated at Cheltenham last time, but he was in the process of running his race, and he’s an interesting outsider.

Alfie Spinner is a horse I’ve never really taken to, and doesn’t win nearly enough for my liking. He has, however, started this season off in decent form, chasing home the decent Roalco Des Farges, at Cheltenham, before getting competitive behind The Young Master in “that” race at Wincanton. He wouldn’t normally be on my radar for a race like this, but those 2 runs had plenty of promise.

Cedre Bleu is well known as a bit of a dog, and he’s hard to recommend, but as a result of his, at times, indifferent attitude, he’s potentially well treated. Not for me at all, though he has jumped round here ok before. Supporters will be hoping that a spin round here might just rekindle his enthusiasm. Stranger things have happened, and might just surprise a few if he can be “kidded” round.

Lion Na Bearnai, the former Irish National winner is another in the veteran stages, and like Oscar Time, I’d struggle to rule him out. Ran well for a long way here in The National, and also in the Irish equivalent at Fairyhouse. Brought down in The Troytown last week, they’re certainly persevering with, and with already having a win under his by this year, he doesn’t look like a back number just yet.

Master Neo, although an outsider, has bits and pieces that would give some promise to supporters. Easy winner of a small affair at Market Rasen, he was then asked to take his chance 6 days later in the race at Cheltenham won by Sam Winner. He was in the firing line for most of the way, and off the back of a recent run, it was some effort to grab 4th spot. If over those exertions, he’s worth keeping an eye on.

The other 2, Herdsman, and Dolatulo, I’m really struggling to enthuse about, but given my track record in this race, I shouldn’t be ruling anything out.

I haven’t went mad, but I’ve had a few quid on………..

Our Father @ 17.5’s
Saint Are @ 24’s, and 25’s
Benbens @ 25’s

Looks decent line up at the moment, I hope most of them stand their ground.

GL