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It used to be the Dewhurst winner was the upper echelon – does that not stand because it was a weak renewal?
We discussed the Coventry form before but it is several months on now and there is no harm in keeping an eye on how the race is shaping, as horses who ran in it keep running and get a chance to perhaps give the form a better look in retrospect.
Ginger has done the "horses don’t need to win to boost the form" line all the way through but although that is true to some extent I see very little talent among those who ran in last years’s Coventry. War Command ran in three races afterwards and only 1 win came out of those races and that was Sniper, who beat Johann Strauss, who is still a maiden. There was much talk about how good the horses who beat War Command in the Phoenix Stakes were but Sudirman was put firmly in his place twice afterwards and is conspicuous by his absence now. He has engagements in both mile and 6f contests at Royal Ascot, which would seem to indicate they haven’t much clue about where they actually stand with him. I think he’s probably going to be hard to place at the very top level this year.
With all that in mind War Command looks awfully short at 6/1 now, particularly with all the bluster surrounding the stable’s "wonder horse" Can anyone really think that a race fit Toormore should be bigger odds than War Command tomorrow?
This will be one of those races where people look back and wonder how the hell Kingman went off at such a big price. He will not have been 100% tuned up first time and the talk of a bad draw in a 12 horse race seems nonsense to me. It’s hardly a Wokingham and it is a sad state of affairs if we can’t have an ante-post punt on the 2000G for fear of pulling a bad draw amongst a dozen runners.
I’ve laid Kingston Hill at 5/1 a place and have backed 9/1 Kingman 20/1 Toormore. It’s feasible Australia might have made monster improvement over the winter but unless they are using War Command as a sacrificial pacemaker, it is hard to see why you would oppose the supposed good thing when you could aim the lesser horse at a different classic.
Should be a great race but there can be only one King.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It used to be the Dewhurst winner was the upper echelon – does that not stand because it was a weak renewal?
It can’t be a great race every season, there are good, average and moderate Dewhurst winners. I happen to think the Racing Post Trophy was well overrated on gutters last season. Time will tell.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
But I think without statistics to back it up that generally a Coventy and Dewhurst winner is a more likely winner of a 2000?
Sat on vouchers for War Command at 14s and Charm Spirit at 33s for pennies, HOWEVER if Kingman touches 2/1, surely then he becomes a bet?
I posted this April 2nd:
‘There’s little doubt that Coolmore have noticed the first colt’s classic to be average. He [Australia] doesn’t need to be a world beater over eight furlongs to win the race, and chances are it will be the last time we see him over such a trip. If connections greatly exaggerate his speed before the race and Australia wins handsomely, such stirring rhetoric will be seemingly vindicated without the colt necessarily competing against top class milers. They have one eye on stud already, as you would expect.’
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Well, the 2000 Guineas is far from average (horses can make fools of us!!) and it wasn’t a surprise to see Newmarket on the radar of War Command after Kingman’s epic Greenham effort – more than a little convenient that prior to Newbury he was looking for his passport and a french dictionary, don’t you think?
I wouldn’t read too much into the jockey bookings either. After waxing lyrical about Australia, connections would look pretty foolish if Joseph O’Brien suddenly jumped ship to War Command, wouldn’t they?!
There’s so much talk about the Coventry Stakes form, but War Command won the race by 6L that day, and we have seen in recent years a plethora of top class individuals emerge from that contest. Parbold – further placed in the Vintage and Gimcrack Stakes, and Sir John Hawkins – beaten a combined total of 3L in two further Group races, were well and truly hammered.
Since he went on to secure two more notable juvenile contests – the Futurity and Dewhurst – why is earlier form under such scrutiny? He proved himself in latter races, which vindicates his Royal Ascot success.
Outstrip – held by War Command in the Dewhurst – was successful either side with victories in the Champagne Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, respectively. He also defeated True Story and was narrowly beaten by Toormore, which is very solid form.
It is easy to see Kingman putting in a ‘Zafonic-esque’ performance from his perch in stall one tomorrow, and odds-against could look bonkers when we review the season late in the year, but a combination of the ground and undulations make his price appear plenty short enough with so many talented colts from near and far in opposition.
Toormore has a National and Craven Stakes on his CV, and boasts victories over the likes of Outstrip and Giovanni Boldini. He looks a solid performer and will be hard to keep out of the frame.
Between them, War Command and Toormore have won eight races from nine starts, have course form to their name and big race triumphs in the Coventry, Futurity, Dewhurst, National and Craven Stakes. They will have the added assistance of the two best jockey’s in the country, respectively, and eight furlongs on fast ground will pose no problems:
1 War Command
2 Toormore
3 KingmanPretty much agree with Bosranic. WAR COMMAND seems to sneak under the radar here due to the hype about Kingman and Australia. Barring one minor hiccup his form last season was very solid and his time figures were decent.
Rob
This is a top class renewal and no mistake. Around half a dozen possible winners and several more who have significant improvement potential
I don’t think War Command’s form stacks up.
Australia is respected but I think he may be tapped for a bit of toe by at least one of the specialist milers that are likely to be in the field.
Kingman has been scintillating. But he is simply too short.The two I like, from a punting perspective, are
Toormore
and
Kingston Hill
. Both Group 1 winners, both unbeaten, both at what I would say are verging on value prices. No reason either should be bigger prices than Australia IMO.
Of the outsiders, Ertijaal could run well, Bookrunner will improve a lot for his seasonal debut and don’t rule out a big run and possible top 4 finish for The Grey Gatsby.
Champion 2 year old, ridden by the champion jockey, trained by the champion trainer(sort of
) physically grown and strengthened from 2 to 3 has c@d to his name and showed us he still has four legs winning the craven cosily has a nice blend of speed and stamina getting the mile stood on his head with plenty of room to improve on. 9/1 
9/1 really.
As visually impressive as Kingman was it was a seasonal debut, if he improves on that look out but Gosden’s horses were on fire at the time and will the extra furlong on this going and course play to his strengths? Night of Thunder would not have been fully wound up and the extra furlong will certainly play to his strengths although the going is a big negative I expect him to finish closer to Kingman this time around. Australia needs further on breeding? but am really looking forward to him this season, was as green as a seasick parrot last season and as babyish as ginger in a discussion with TAPK, expect him to make a better for his experience and an end of season horse and four year old personally unless he has matured well over the winter. War Command is very interesting with plenty of speed for this if we don’t think Australia will win and he is O’Brien juniors ride so supposedly the yard think he has the best chance and talk of him running in France instead of here previously in discouraging enough for me.
9/1 Toormore for me.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
As visually impressive as Kingman was it was a seasonal debut, if he improves on that look out but Gosden’s horses were on fire at the time and will the extra furlong on this going and course play to his strengths?
According to James Doyle, Kingman only started to get going as he passed the winning line in the Greenham and it took a while to pull him up thereafter. If that’s the case, then it’s God help the others.
My top 3 prediction –
1st Kingman
2nd Toormore
3rd Kingston HillDecided to plump for one I feel has an outside chance at a good price, Charm Spirit. Was third in the big 2yo French race last year staying on but unable to quicken on unsuitably soft ground. Not totally convinced he’ll stay a strong run 1m being out of Invincible Spirit but hope sufficient stamina on dams side. I also like Peslier as a jockey and think i’ll get a good run for my money
Good luck and hope we see another Champion!!
I’ve backed the two French horses as well [habit of a lifetime] and Night of Thunder. I just really like NoT. And the Elsworth rag, 10pence ew because I’m so fed up of seeing huge priced horses get placed in races [albeit not Classics
].Not being a follower of flat racing; i can’t be swayed by hype or sentiment!
Maybe it’ll work
War Command and Outstrip at a price. Abandoned Toormore in the end… roll on the hindsight
1.Kingman
2.Night Of Thunder
3.ToormoreThanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve stuck with my ante post on Outstrip at 25/1, I can’t believe he drifted out to 33/1 this morning although it is coming back in to 22 & 25/1. I still think that is good value, although I wish they hadn’t bothered with the watering that they didn’t need.
I have added Night of Thunder, I think 40/1 is way to big for a horse that was vying for favouritism (Kingman opened 2/1 NOF opened 5/2)in the Greenham. I’m not stupid enough to accept that Kingman blew the socks off everything, but NOT ran a very good race running away from the remainder, and once Kingman had put that 4 or 5 lengths distance between the two with that electric burst of speed, he matched him for pace. The thing is, I’m not sure that Kingman will be as explosive over 1m. His breeding on the sire’s side is very much towards sprinting, if he does have that extra distance, more from the Dam’s side, then he could be exceptional, but I’m not convinced yet. I think NOT was running on with purpose at the end of the Greenham and the extra furlong will suit him better. Hannon said that Kingman got the march on NOT, I’m not convinced that is the case, but I don’t think NOT’s form warrants him being 40/1. I would be surprised if he is out of the first three, and if things fall right for him, and wrong for Kingman, I can see him in with a shout of winning this at a huge price. I’ve had a decent bet on him as I think he is the value in the race.
Good luck guys, five minutes to the off.
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