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The bit that doesn’t fill me with confidence is
:"I would imagine that Hughesie will choose Toormore”
Either that is being polite and respectful to the owners of the other two or Toormore isn’t much better.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Did I say no need for piece makers in the Guineas? I meant pacemakers.As for entering too many horses in a race; see the results of the 19:35 in Ballinrobe.Leaves the trainer with egg on his face.
Hannon is planning to run all three (Toormore, Night of Thunder and Shifting Power) according to his website.
Maybe they are planning to gang up and box in Kingman.
Not sure if you are being serious but no surprise if that is a significant part of the reasoning.
There are some jocks who would have trouble getting a run in a three horse race but you would think the more runners there are the more chance Doyle might run into trouble. Lot more pressure delivering a Guineas winner than a Greenham winner.
El gran señor to me is possibly the best miler of all time. His guineas had chief singer as runner up who then went on to win the st James palace and the July cup. Also fourth that day was rainbow quest who went onto win the arc. I think this years renewal could well be looked back in later years as a classic as I think the front five in the betting are all very good horses although all bar kingman will probably be better at longer distances.
Charm Spirit at 33s and War Command 14s each way but want to see Kingman destroy them.
Karakontie and Ectot both look interesting at around 25/1, going to have to dig out my french racing subscription to watch their last races!
Watched them both and was more impressed with Katakontie, could be in with a big chance if he travels over alright.
I’d be very wary of Karakontie.
Trainer Jonathan Pease used to be poison for me with his UK runners and Maxios continued that stink-fest last year as part of the trainers 0 for 2 at Ascot last season. The stable don’t tend to send many to these shores and I’d be highly doubtful he will make the trip to Newmarket and his form is soft ground based as well.
Not trying to be funny here but I wouldn’t take 100/1 if offered.
I hope people took my advice not to touch Karakontie. Very much a stay at home stable he hails from.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
Thanks for the advice Steve, after listening to your reasoning I chose not to back him!
Shifting Power is one that clearly Hannon thinks a lot of and the horse is huge, once he knuckled down in the free handicap he took it in his stride, 1m will almost definitely bring out improvement and at 25/1 seems decent value, only trouble is this seems an incredibly strong running of the guineas.
War Command at the odds is probably the most appealing, though how much improvement he’ll have in him is anyones guess!
Just 17 runners left in now. The Godolphin duo of Be Ready and True Story are out, along with Berkshire and Sudirman.
Aiden O’Brien still has four in at this stage, hardly a vote of confidence behind the wonder horse Australia I would have thought.
I think Kingman will win this without much fuss and will be interested in any winning margin betting that may emerge.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If Aidan leaves four in it means they don’t know which is best.The best thing to do with the Ballydoyle entries is to select the best jockey of the Ballydoyle jockeys and go for him.I believe Moore improves the horse at least three pounds.Heffernan knows the B.horses best and O’Donoghue gives them a wonderful ride so it is your choice.
Since I saw
TOORMORE
win the Craven Stakes at Newmarket a couple of weeks back I can’t get the thought out of my mind that he is going to win the 2000 Guineas. He is such a cool character and he will improve leaps and bounds for that outing.
Richard Hannon is triple handed and although Richard Hughes thinks very highly of Night of Thunder I would expect to see him aboard Toormore on Saturday.
I found a lot to like about Toormore at the Craven Meeting and went to the cooling down paddock after the race to see how he came out of the race, he was so laid back and looked as though he had hardly had a race at all, he walked around with his handler with the look of ‘job done’ on his face, he had done all that was required to win and I’m certain The Grey Gatsby was flattered as Toormore lengthened at the finish.
Richard Hannon also said after the race that Shifting Power did all his work at home with Toormore so they certainly know which is better and whoever Hughsie chooses will be the one to be on.
Shifting Power is improving hand over fist and could grab a place at a big price but Treaty of Paris let the form down recently. Night of Thunder has been beaten by Kingman so is exposed.
I’m hoping for Toormore to be the first horse to win both the Craven Stakes and the 2000 Guineas since Haafhd did it in 2004.
Jac
http://i59.tinypic.com/dzjq4z.jpg
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Kingman might turn out to be as good as he is getting touted, there’s no doubt he looked impressive in his last outing, and with the last three winners of the 2000 Guineas all hosing in, it’s not a bad race for favourites. That being said, I remember St Nicholas Abbey being put forward as the proverbial good thing in the 2009 running, very much in the same way that Kingman is this year.
I would rather try and find a bit of value as I’m not quite in the “home and hosed” Kingman camp. I am a little uneasy him being trained by John Gosden who, if I’m not mistaken, hasn’t had a horse placed in the 2000 Guineas since 1990. I’m also slightly concerned about him getting a strongly run race over a mile. He has a tremendous cruising speed and quickened well, albeit off a relatively slow pace, to win the Greenham over 7f, but you might expect the speed of a sprinter being out of Invincible Spirit who never won beyond 6f. He has more stamina on the Dam’s side, but at 11/10 I don’t think him lasting out a truly run mile is a risk I would be keen on taking.
I am a fan of Kingston Hill, but I think he will be at his best over further and therefore I think the Derby will play more to his strengths.
So now that I’ve pointed out what I won’t be taking, I suppose I better have something to put in it’s place. At a decent price, 25/1, I think Outstrip is the forgotten horse in the race. He has to my mind had one slightly disappointing race behind War Command in the Dewhurst, but if that can be forgiven his record of 3 wins and a 2nd could easily have, and imo should have been, four out of four. I think he went early enough when collared in the last strides by Toormore at Goodwood and I think his last win in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf, where he came with a terrific surge having been held up, looked impressive. Admittedly it’s not the normal route to the 2000 Guineas, but I think he has improved, will get the mile well and has a real turn of foot which is needed in a classic.
I will be surprised if he is more than half those odds come Saturday, so at 25/1 e/w, I’m having some of that now. Who knows, I might turn out to be a flat fan yet.
- Total Posts 764
Outstrip e/w the value for me
edit – i should add I won’t be betting until friday/saturday when we have a better idea of the ground
For those interested in a match bet Racebets had Kingman 8/11 vs Australia 10/11
If you feel Kingman won’t stay it might appeal, with the O’Brien horse fancied by some people regardless of stamina questions.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
For those interested in a match bet Racebets had Kingman 8/11 vs Australia 10/11
If you feel Kingman won’t stay it might appeal, with the O’Brien horse fancied by some people regardless of stamina questions.
Does the O’Brien horse (Australia) really have stamina questions?
Galileo has sired 6 European Guineas winners (Frankel, Roderic O’Connor, Golden Lilac, Nightime, Misty For Me, Magician) and many more placed. That’s a very fair total for any sire at 8f.
In addition Rip Van Winkle, Lush Lashes, Frankel (of course) have added a good number of G1 wins at 3 years or older over 8f.
In addition, its worth remembering that Ouija Board really outstayed her pedigree to stay 12f. A Cape Cross who’s breeding didn’t really scream Oaks before Epsom,
I would reckon about 5 of the last 12 Guineas winners had similar ‘stamina questions’,Backed War Command this afternoon at 14s on the hope that quick ground and Kingman swerves… or if he turns up should be good for a place.
Quite the plunger over last 48 hours but still be lucky to nick a place..
For those interested in a match bet Racebets had Kingman 8/11 vs Australia 10/11
If you feel Kingman won’t stay it might appeal, with the O’Brien horse fancied by some people regardless of stamina questions.
Does the O’Brien horse (Australia) really have stamina questions?
Galileo has sired 6 European Guineas winners (Frankel, Roderic O’Connor, Golden Lilac, Nightime, Misty For Me, Magician) and many more placed. That’s a very fair total for any sire at 8f.
In addition Rip Van Winkle, Lush Lashes, Frankel (of course) have added a good number of G1 wins at 3 years or older over 8f.
In addition, its worth remembering that Ouija Board really outstayed her pedigree to stay 12f. A Cape Cross who’s breeding didn’t really scream Oaks before Epsom,
I would reckon about 5 of the last 12 Guineas winners had similar ‘stamina questions’,Sorry, I was referring to people favouring Australia, regardless of stamina questions regarding the favourite Kingman.
Australia has already won over a mile. His problem will be coping with the speed element of the race.
I watched Australia in all three of his races last season and if he has speed, it is something they found in him over the winter, because he did not have it last year.
It is part of the perverse Racing psyche to see people defend a horse such as Treve, who was defeated in a clear two horse race at odds of 3/10, and then see people pick holes in the form of a horse such as Kingman, who won his trial with ease by more than 4 lengths at odds of 15/8.
It is almost as if people can’t understand why they were not on the horse who won at a bigger price and they need to mark it down as a case of winning a "weak" race, which, in reality, prior to the race, they had probably rated as the best renewal in many a year.
The same logic would have you believe it is somehow acceptable to bang money on a "good thing", such as runaway Arc winner Treve, making her first appearance since, then watch her lose, but readily accept that you were actually expecting too much, too soon, because the "real race" is later in the season.
It’s a funny old game as Jimmy Greaves would say!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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