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I think too much is being made of Tidal Bay’s rating in this. The race is going to come at the end of a long and hard season for him, he is an average-to-poor jumper and did not have much success on his last attempt at this race. Let’s see what happens to his price if Ruby decides to ride Prince De Beauchene or On His Own…
Beshabar
stands out like a sore thumb to me. Fast-ground specialist, being saved for the race and with just enough weight to squeak into the final 40. He’s a big lad, too. Should take to the fences. Go go go!
edit: Just spotted
Poker De Sivola
way down the weights, too. I doubt he’ll get in, but would have a shout if half of the entries get wiped out.
Three I’ve backed so far (
) are:Cappa Bleu
33/1 Placed last year when given too much to, jockey waited too long to ask for his effort and finished with running left in him. Backed before the seson started but 25/1 now still seems very good value.
I backed (in a way – long story) Cappa Bleu last year and didn’t see him being given too much to do, Ginge. To my eyes, he tagged onto the bunch when the field clustered turning for home, then got outpaced when they quickened thereafter. He plugged on at the end better than anything bar the winner, but it was too late.
The two class acts are Prince De Beauchene and Teaforthree. If they both turn up, one of them will win.
I backed (in a way – long story) Cappa Bleu last year and didn’t see him being given too much to do, Ginge. To my eyes, he tagged onto the bunch when the field clustered turning for home, then got outpaced when they quickened thereafter. He plugged on at the end better than anything bar the winner, but it was too late.
I agree that Cappa Bleu was close enough rounding the home turn TYF. But if you look at the time when you say Cappa Bleu was "outpaced", imo Moloney didn’t seem so animated as most around and in front of him. Making up ground hand over fist once asked for full effort.
Although I backed Cappa Bleu last year was also on the winner, so it made little difference to me. Am not saying Cappa Bleu would’ve won, just should’ve been a lot closer. So as a result, compared to those with experience of the National – could imo be well handicapped this time around.
Value Is EverythingGinge; I was quite keen on Tofino Bay’s profile but when I googled him I read an article that said the trainer wasn’t going to run him this year. Wonder if that’s still the case or if he’s changed his mind?
Ted Walsh is always a bit miffed Red Riot, as is every Irish trainer after the weights come out. It’s what they do. They don’t understand handicapping. He’s trying to make out Seabass is badly handicapped, comparing his weight to Tidal Bay. Where as in fact it is just the top weight Tidal Bay who’s well handicapped.
Last year Sunnyhillboy finished 2nd, Seabass 3rd, and Cappa Bleu 4th, Ballabriggs 6th.
Seabass is 5 lbs better off with Sunnyhillboy for being beaten 5 lengths by Jonjo’s horse.
Seabass is 7 lbs worse off with Cappa Bleu for beating Evan Williams horse 7 lengths.
Seabass is 13 lbs worse off with Ballabriggs for beating the McCain runner 12.25 lengths.
How is that being badly handicapped?
It is Seabass who’s got most potential to improve out of all those in the shake up last year. So how Ted can moan so much baffles me.
I think all trainers have a point in criticising how the top weight is favoured. Tidal Bay is weighted on 162, that’s 4 lbs better than when finishing so well in the English Hennessey. On the book, putting up a better performance than Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth (Gave him 6 lbs and only beaten 3 1/4 lengths). Although winner won fairly easily…
Is it fair that Tidal Bay is let in so lightly? No, but at least it keeps more horses in the handicap proper and encourages good horses to run. It’s nothing new and all trainers knew it was going to happen when entering their horses.Value Is EverythingGinge; I was quite keen on Tofino Bay’s profile but when I googled him I read an article that said the trainer wasn’t going to run him this year. Wonder if that’s still the case or if he’s changed his mind?
Reason for Tofino Bay being on my long list is because I doubt he’ll run Moehat, otherwise I’d already be on at tempting odds. Agree, think he’ll make a good Grand National horse one day, jumps and stays well and a real trier, but is still a novice. Will keep an ear to what the stable say in the next few weeks. However, suspect they entered just to see what weight he’d get, on the off-chance of getting in lightly. I’d expect Tofino Bay to be aimed at the Irish version. Of all novices only Godsmejudge appeals more for Aintree 2014.
Value Is EverythingI think too much is being made of Tidal Bay’s rating in this. The race is going to come at the end of a long and hard season for him, he is an average-to-poor jumper and did not have much success on his last attempt at this race. Let’s see what happens to his price if Ruby decides to ride Prince De Beauchene or On His Own…
Beshabar
stands out like a sore thumb to me. Fast-ground specialist, being saved for the race and with just enough weight to squeak into the final 40. He’s a big lad, too. Should take to the fences. Go go go!
edit: Just spotted
Poker De Sivola
way down the weights, too. I doubt he’ll get in, but would have a shout if half of the entries get wiped out.
Tiday Bay off 162, Katenko off 156. Crackers.
Anyway, Join Together, Roberto Goldback, On His Own.
Tiday Bay off 162, Katenko off 156. Crackers.
Well said Mark
I piled in as soon as the weights were announced.
There are small doubts why I’m not overly confident, such as the fact he’ll most likely be coming through tiring / falling horses but there can be no concerns about his mark or weight and a performance like any of his last 4 would be good enough to win this race.
Just watch his Bet365 win again – Effortless.
A horse with enough pace to win an Arkle in his youth and enough staying power to murder a stamina laden field carrying 11st 12lb on Soft ground over Sandown’s stiff 3m 5f. And proof that he retains enough ability to come out of this year’s classiest handicap (which included the current Gold Cup favourite) as the best horse and then giving a beating to Ireland’s 3 best chasers.
25/1 was a crazy price.
Put it this way, how many Gold Cup winners go off at 25/1 in their next race – even in the Grand National ?
and there are plenty of people who think Tidal Bay could have won the Cheltenham race had he gone for it, especially on soft-ish ground.
Synchronised is the only horse to try in the last few years and he carried the same weight as Tidal Bay will, off a 1lb less mark given his rating awarded prior to his Gold Cup win and he went off at 10/1 after vying for favouritism up to and throughout the day.
and I’m not sure where a "long, hard season" comes from. He’s deliberately being kept fresh for the race and has only had 3 runs and one of those was a comfortable hurdles victory.
Everybody knows there is no such thing as a certainty in racing but if Tidal Bay gets a clear round at Aintree (fairly big if granted) then he WILL be in the shake up.
Lee
Three bets so far, chunky ones on Teaforthree at 20/1 and Prince De Beauchene at 14/1, with a saver on Wyck Hill at 33/1
Sportingbet going standout top price on a few, that seem ludicrous, such as –
Even if just a fiver away, would be some nice insurance.
The Rainbow Hunter 80/1
BecauseIcouldntsee 100/1
Swing Bill 100/1
Roi Du Mee 100/1
Lambro 100/1
Call The Police 80/1please note weight will rse at least 2lb , albertas run set to carry top weight wth tidal bay ruled out through injury
i will update the list in time
vf
After all that, Tidal Bay has been ruled out through stress fracture – doh !
Lee
Another star out of the festival…I hope trainers are stocking up on their cotton wool as it seems they’ll need it in the next few weeks!
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