Grand National 2013

Here are my write ups in order of chance, including a 100% book.
Horse with (imo) the best chance of winning On His Own with (imo) a 12.5% 7/1. Worst Tatenen 0.1% 1000/1. I’ve included in brackets my 100% book + a mark up working to around 131%. So On His Own 12.5% + 1.5% = 14% = (6/1).

Underlined horses are currently (imo) value.
The 100% book is a "price to beat", however, if only just above my price I may not bet because I usually like a margin for error.

GRAND NATIONAL Aintree 4m3½f

15.

148

On His Own

9 11-0 Willie Mullins (Ire) P1/B1F-1
Justifiably favourite for this after fell at second Becher’s Brook last year. On His Own apparently going best of all at the time and jumped well up to that point. Difficult to imagine him not at least involved in the finish with a clear round. Surprisingly left on same mark by the handicapper, rated as if finishing 4th, 2 lengths in front of Cappa Bleu. On His Own now better off by 10 lbs with 2nd Sunnyhillboy, 5 lbs with 3rd Seabass; worse off by 2 lbs with 4th Cappa Bleu and 8 lbs with 5th Ballabriggs. Protecting his handicap mark – connections only raced him once since Aintree, easily winning 2m5f Grade 2 hurdle when expected to need the race. On His Own probably has more improvement in him, winner of four of five completed starts over fences (brought down on his other uncompleted start). Effective on heavy or good ground and the one they all have to beat here.
Ruby Walsh

12.5% 7/1

(6/1)

18.

145

Cappa Bleu

11 10-11 Evan Williams 1334-22
There are grounds to think Cappa Bleu is better than he’s shown. 4th in Grand National last year. Now 12 lbs better off with 2nd Sunnyhillboy for 12 lengths, 7 lbs better off with 3rd Seabass for 7 lengths and 2 lbs better off with On His Own who was going well when falling at second Bechers Brook. 6 lbs worse off with 6th Ballabriggs for beating him 5¼ lengths. That doesn’t tell the whole story; Jockey Paul Moloney in my opinion late in asking for maximum effort and made up a lot of ground/places on the run-in. Appearing to have running left in him at the line. Wouldn’t have won, but could’ve finished closer. Equally effective on good or heavy ground. Did well to finish 2½ lengths 2nd off today’s mark, giving 7lbs to Vino Griego at Ascot (3m soft). Again not given the best ride; on a horse needing a test at the trip Moloney held Cappa Bleu up for a late run off a slowish pace – not making a move until late. Saint Are and The Rainbow Hunter 6 and a further 1¾ lengths behind in 3rd and 4th, Major Malarkey and Tatenen (well beaten) all off the same marks as today. Winner franked the form when good 1½ lengths 2nd off a 7 lbs higher mark next time out at Cheltenham Festival. Cappa Bleu should be much better suited by Aintree conditions than any of those Ascot rivals.
Paul Moloney

10% 9/1

(15/2)

10.

151

Teaforthree

9 11-3 Rebecca Curtis 11-8620
Ever since an always prominent slick round of jumping to win 4 mile National Hunt Novice Chase (good) at 2012 Cheltenham Festival, this big horse has looked an ideal Grand National candidate. Although now 11 lbs worse off with 2nd Harry The Viking for just 2 lengths, Teaforthree has improved since. Best run ½ length runner-up to Monbeg Dude in Welsh National (3m5½f heavy), first two 11 lengths clear of the field. Previously showed he’s no sluggard, not persevered with once beaten in Newbury’s Hennessey Gold Cup. 26¾ lengths 6th, getting 14 lbs from subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth. Trainer said Teaforthree did not take to being away from home overnight and failed to eat up when below form in Haydock Grand National Trial last time out. Will travel on the day to Aintree. Type to bounce back, progressive before Haydock and equally effective on heavy or good ground. Bears repeating Teaforthree is normally an exceptional jumper. Stable in good form.
Nick Scholfield

9% 10/1

(17/2)

35. 137 Auroras Encore 11 10-3 Sue Smith OP45F5
Three good runs culminated in excellent head 2nd giving 9 lbs to winner Merigo in Scottish National (4m½f Good) in April last year. Auroras Encore raced up with the pace and looked the winner jumping the last, just caught on line. Now off 6 lbs lower mark. Shown very little in 6 starts this season, last one in March. However, vast majority of Auroras Encore’s best lifetime efforts have come in the Spring, including winning over hurdles at this meeting in 2008. Sometimes can make a mistake and stable haven’t had a winner for some time; but some runners have run well and Auroras Encore’s chance may be underestimated by bookmakers.
Ryan Mania 2.25% 40/1 (28/1)

36.

136

Tarquinius

10 10-2 Gordon Elliott (Ire) P11420
Below form 14th of 17 when joint favourite for Leinster National (3m Soft) latest start in March after 7 weeks off (a long break for him). Type to bounce back. Improved form since moving to Gordon Elliot, winning three races between 2¾m and 3m1f in December/January. Also good 2nd penultimate start in Thyestes Chase (3m1f Heavy) off an Irish handicap mark of 123. Getting 1 lb from enigmatic winner Jadanli; beaten a head staying on well with 13 lengths back to the 3rd. Now on a BHA mark of 136 which looks excessive. However, unexposed as staying chaser for current yard. Best form for previous trainer Charlie Mann at extreme trips (3m6f) so could yet improve further, particularly with stable in good form. Genuine and finds plenty under pressure. Going could be a concern, only raced on soft surface but an outsider to consider at three figure prices.
Wilson Renwick

2.25% 40/1

(28/1)

Although (including on betfair) I also make Join Together, Balthazar King, Harry The Viking, Soll and Always Waining marginal "value", the margin for error means they’re not yet enough to warrent a bet.

I make the best value bets:

On His Own at around 10/1 (3.4% better than 7/1) Fell

Teaforthree

at around 16/1 (3.1% better than 10/1) 3rd

Cappa Bleu

at around 12/1 (2.3% better than 9/1) 2nd
Tarquinius at around 200/1 (1.75% better than 40/1) 8th

Auroras Encore at around 120/1 (1.42% better than 40/1) 1st

I bow to you, Ginger. Top work and I hope you’ll be treating yourself to a few drinks tonight.

As for me, this is my 16th National without picking the winner. Might need some serious therapy if I get to 20.

Fair steer toward the winner and superb work by Ginger on GN – many thanks

Peter, well done, great call

Went back over the 2011 Grand National thread the other day and i actually flagged up Auroras Encore for the race back then! Always satisfying to flag up a horse early… even if it’s 2/3 years early!

I bow to you, Ginger. Top work and I hope you’ll be treating yourself to a few drinks tonight.

As for me, this is my 16th National without picking the winner. Might need some serious therapy if I get to 20.

I got to 15 but only used to back one. The first time I backed 2 in the race I had the winner (Monty’s Pass). I have now had 4 winners but usually back 4 for the race. Yesterday If you’d have backed a £1 e/w on every horse you would have made a fair profit. Maybe this is the way to go

Does anyone know how tall the fence cores were? Was watching the race over and once all the spruce was knocked off; i’m convinced the soft cores weren’t much taller than a hurdle. Definitely shorter than a regulation park fence.

Don’t get me wrong; it’s great to see these safety measures work; but it seems they’ve morphed the race into a mere stamina test, where jumping is merely an afterthought. The whole appeal of the race was that it brought in two of racing’s most crucial factors (jumping and stamina) and created the ultimate test for both. It just seems now that only stamina counts with the fences being as soft as they were yesterday.

I hope for future years they raise the core so it’s at least the height of regular park fences (4ft 6?) and then dress them up in spruce. Just to help maintain the races challenge.

Right now my shortlist reads as…

Auroras Encore

Join Together
Midnight Chase
Roberto Goldback

All bound to get entries and seem to have the race as their main target (heard Midnight Chase is taking a "step up in trip" after disappointing in the Lexus. Can only assume it’ll be perhaps the Grand National Trial at Haydock before a possible crack at the National)

I’ve been talking this horse up as a National type for 5 years… i’m so proud of him!

Another £515 won in the National…

Well done Peter. Grand result.

For us and the race.
It seems they’ve all come home.
Although there weren’t many fallers plenty were taking the top off the fences. So "jumping"

DID

count, they just took energy out of themselves instead of falling.

Moving the start seems to have worked. First time and not a faller until the Canal Turn ? Brilliant.
Think there’s been some artistic license with the final review though. Colbert Station is reported as UR but it looked like a definite faller to me.

Congrats to all those who backed the winner.

It seems Mr Muir deserves our thanks Joe.