Grand National 2013

My 4 I have

Chicago Grey
On His Own
Teaforthree
Quel Esprit

The two Navan runs (On His Own, Chicago Grey) just stood out for me, looked very impressive, both won yet both had something to work on.

Teaforthree that Haydock run was beyond awful, so awful in fact I thought he should have been 100/1 after the race, surely something was a miss there, otherwise that 6th in the Hennessey, 2nd to Monbeg Dude, 4m Cheltenham winner, hopefully was just having a run a round a Haydock and I will give him a 2nd chance.

Quel Esprit was a tip to be honest, although should go well if he retains some of his class. Hopefully a Neptune Collonges mk II.

The best bet was 5/4 with Hills, for winner to carry 11st or more, sadly they caught on and is now 8/11.

Dispute between trainer and owners at the minute, one wanting to go Bowl, other The National. We shall see who prevails.

Teaforthree certainly looks to have the stamina for it based on his Welsh National run and Cheltenham win, I’ll forgive him some of his other showings – I think they’ll have him right for the National so he’s my pick.

If the ground is indeed Heavy, which horses specifically is it likely to suit/not suit?

I have 4 ante-post in Cappa Bleu/Colbert Station/Chicago Grey/Beshabar

Changed my mind last minute on Tofino Bay and Teaforthree!

When the weights first came out the handful that immediately sprung to mind where Wyck Hill, On His Own, Tidal Bay, Join Together & Prince De Beauchene.

After Nicholls confirmed Tidal Bay was going for the race I placed my first ante post bet and remain convinced that with luck in running he’d have gone extremely close.

Since his unfortunate withdrawal I’ve had to look again and Wyck Hill’s injury is worrying and even if he makes it there I’m no longer convinced given that he did seem to have the race go his way at Ascot and was possibly flattered to beat Katenko before Venetia had really got to work on that horse, given it was his first run over fences for the yard.

Having said that if he turns up I’ll possibly have a small saver on him if the ground is riding slow – as I am fully expecting (regardless of Aintree’s quick drying ground) due to rain forecast and no warm weather or noticeable winds on the horizon.

On His Own had slight stamina reservations last year but was clearly going well enough at Bechers second time around and while his jumping still isn’t foot perfect, with a clear round he has to have a chance and I’ve thrown a free £20 from Coral that I bagged over the Cheltenham festival on him @ 9/1.

Join Together was hugely dissappointing last time out, as he was 2 runs prior and while he caught the eye staying on well in the Becher he’s now been pulled up 3 times in the past 2 years and I couldn’t back him with confidence.

Good as he is my worry for Prince De Beauchene is that he’s going to end up with a big weight (he’s already on 11-7) and while there seems to have been a slight shift towards the 11st+ horse recently if the ground is testing, 4.5 miles is a long way to lump that sort of burden.

For that reason I’ve looked at horses just hovering below the 11st mark and the more I consider Cappa Bleu the more I like him. He looks like he was ridden to get the trip last year and after appearing ever so slightly outpaced turning for home he then stayed on best of all at the death. He’ll like slow ground (but wouldn’t be inconvenienced if it dried out a bit based on last year’s effort) and given that he’s been dropped 2lb and proved his wellbeing LTO with a cracking effort over a trip too short he like On His Own looks definite shortlist material – I’ve put the 2nd of my 3 free Coral £20s on him as another saver.

I say "saver" as the one horse I’ve been slightly and inexplicably drawn to is Chicago Grey – who carries the final free £20 plus another few ante post bets with my own cash. There is just something that I really fancy about this horse this year. Hopefully Carberry will be on board and if he manages to avoid trouble, given that he tends to be switched off early then he could make light of a mark 10lb below his best.

My concern would be that he’s another who has good and bad days, none more so than when he won the 4 miler at Cheltenham in 2011 (beating Besahabar into second) only to finish 50L behind the same horse a month later at Ayr but on their current ratings he is IMO the one horse who, if they all ran to their best form and weights considered, would win.

so…

1. Chicago Grey
2. On His Own
3. Cappa Bleu

are my idea of the first 3, with possibly Prince De Beauchene filling 4th place.

FWIW Seabass had everything go right last year but wasn’t quite good enough and he has more weight this time around and I have stamina doubts about Colbert Station.

Lee

BetVictor now going 1/4 odds 6 places (NRNB) from 1:00 pm today.

Doesn’t get much fairer than that.

Lee

Just a bit of fun how many do you all think will turn up on the day ?

I will start : 35

they certainly are dropping out this year ill say 32

vf