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Thanks for doing this Vf, saves me a lot of time.
no problem iive updated it followiing todays news of defections
vf
ive updated the weights and form list, though as said will increase again should imperial commander not run
fingers crossed as my anteposts still in there and still seem to have ok weights
vf
With
Lion Na Bearnai
doubtful,
Big Fella Thanks
probably going to the Topham this year and
Wyck Hill
recovering from a minor injury, those are three more that could help you out, HD.
Imperial Commander
obviously very doubtful too.
It’s going to be very tight for Poker De Sivola and Soll.
I can remember as a teenager getting excited at the prospect of a 50 runner national but alas there were always loads of defections in the last week . Limit wasn’t changed til 84 when the race was opened up to any horse that had won a chase of any kind ,distance or value .
My ante-post bets for the National:
They were made on the day the weights were released (13th Feb)Wyck Hill @ 20-1
(Before the injury, but i still have faith.)Roberto Goldback @ 33-1
(Former Grade One winner on decent ground, gone down in the ratings since and been running okay on bad ground recently)Cappa Bleu @ 25-1
(Best chance of winning this year, at the weights. We all saw what happened last year and he’ll be right there again)Quinz @ 66-1
(I know the form hasn’t inspired much, but he’s also slipped down the ratings and the yard is in decent form. I was delighted with his return at Kempton)So now i’m hoping and praying
The bookies are dodging Colbert Station in the fear that AP takes the ride. 16 is short enough in this race but he will be shorter still on the day, probably single figures. Chicago grey stands out more and more as the weights steadily climb as does On His Own. PdB looks to have too much weight given his recent run in the bobbyjo but I’d rather have tofino bay onside right now in case the going remains soft. Viking blond has very little chance of getting in but if the ground comes heavy and horses pull out he could creep in the bottom of the weights, at which point his 150-300/1 on betfair would look terrific.
If Viking Blond won the National ill eat my hat…being drawn towards Colbert, has all the hallmarks of a National winner to me.
I’ll probably side with Cappa Bleu again. This horse just coasted round last year, never put into the race and finished 6th I think?
He shouldn’t have too many problems seeing out the trip and if it’s decent ground, can’t see him outside the top 4.
Good return at Ascot recently too.
Was 4th actually ap, had a decent each way return on him ante post (33/1 I think)…no doubt ill be on him again, even though I don’t think he has the quality to win it, he’ll surely be placed again if getting round safely. All value has gone now though unfortunately.
Lol careful Rich, many hats are eaten after the national!
I’ve been reviewing the NH chase at Chelts today, and have decided that Tofino Bay probably lacks the scope and strength to handle the national fences at this stage. Colbert station and Chicago bay main bets for now.True, but the amount of times I’ve seen VB struggling from a mile or so out in his recent races and his sloppy jumping doesn’t bode well for this sternest of tests. I wouldn’t back it at 1000/1 let alone the 66/1 that’s available.
Colbert Station will probably be part of my awesome foursome now along with CB, PDB and OHO.
Is Joncol an intended runner, or is it Nolan entering horses in races he has not intention of winning ?
My three against the field are the Ted Walsh pair SeaBass and Colbert Station and I think Swing Bill could run a massive race at 66/1.
Any hope of getting some decent ground at all this year (it is peeing it down as I type in the South West, no snow as yet!)
Martin
It has been sunny in Liverpool for the past three days, Martin. I felt a bit silly stepping out wearing my hat and gloves this afternoon!
Good ground could be on the way.
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