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I fear we are entering in to a fallow period for the Gold Cup. Synchronised and the Giant Bolster !!!
Exactly ! Glorified handicappers.
Norton’s Coin and Cool Dawn might feel a little more comfortable now – although to fair to the latter, Cool Dawn’s amateur owner/rider did eventually have the good sense and foresight to hand over the reins to a professional jockey !
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I fear we are entering in to a fallow period for the Gold Cup. Synchronised and the Giant Bolster !!!
Exactly ! Glorified handicappers.
Norton’s Coin and Cool Dawn might feel a little more comfortable now – although to fair to the latter, Cool Dawn’s amateur owner/rider did eventually have the good sense and foresight to hand over the reins to a professional jockey !
I’m not a racing purist but i love to watch horse racing – get a real buzz out of it.
The quality of a race is not top of my betting agenda to be honest – Yes, i don’t want really poor quality races –
but i like a flutter, not big money just fivers, tenners, twenties are my limits.
So for me the win or e/w placed is what REALLY matters – Synchronised winning, with The Champ on board, was good enough for me and that’s what matters. It rounded off a decent festival for me with 8 winners and 3 33/1 placed pick ups.
Can’t wait til next year.Long Run’s key weakness tends to be overlooked by many – even the pro form summarisers: he cannot bend his back properly and often drags his lower hind legs through the tops of fences.
They would not necessarily go down as errors as he appears to land and get away OK. It becomes really noticeable when he’s under pressure but he does it regularly throughout many of his races.
Like the Chinese water torture, that steady drip-drip-drip effect of these must be energy sapping, probably to a significant degree.
They might also indicate a physical back problem which has not been picked up and could be causing the horse pain.
You’re right Joe, Long Run does tend to go through the top of his fences (French style) but this has been exaggerated by a lot of people. Purely because he isn’t a bold and accurate jumper like older rival Kauto Star. However, Long Run is still a better jumper than both winner Synchronised and second The Giant Bolster. Making fewer noticeable mistakes than those two. Worse mistakes surely take more out of a horse than smaller errors? Which tends to defeat your theory of Long Run’s jumping making the difference between winning and losing.
Value Is EverythingI’m not a racing purist but i love to watch horse racing – get a real buzz out of it.
The quality of a race is not top of my betting agenda to be honest – Yes, i don’t want really poor quality races –
but i like a flutter, not big money just fivers, tenners, twenties are my limits.
So for me the win or e/w placed is what REALLY matters – Synchronised winning, with The Champ on board, was good enough for me and that’s what matters. It rounded off a decent festival for me with 8 winners and 3 33/1 placed pick ups.
Can’t wait til next year.You obviously approach it from a different angle from me, and if it helps you to pick out winners; even if it’s in the top steeplechase of the year, then all I can say is fair play to you, sir.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
That’s a very fair argument Ginger – difficult to counter! Perhaps I am just becoming obsessed with LR’s cranky jumping style
It doesn’t matter how you look at it but the Handicapper has got a complete nightmare trying to assess the race!
Long Run
rated 30lb better than
Time for Rupert
but only 6 lengths seperating them and the exposed handicapper
The Giant Bolster
beating both having been beaten by both last time they met! One could argue that ‘Long Run’ ran below form but then his stablemate
Burton Port
holds the form together! No I’m afraid my assessment of the race all stemmed from the ‘Lexus’, with
Quito de la Roque
being firmly put in his place by
Synchronised
! Good Luck BHA handicappers you’ll need it!
Long Run clearly good but not perhaps the superstar people (inc me) thought he might progress into.
Plenty considered Synchronised beforehand. He was only 8/1 after all and many considered he had a decent chance. He’s probably a better horse than he’s given credit for and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a better race than many are giving it credit for.
Next year with Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs in the mix it’ll be interesting.
It doesn’t matter how you look at it but the Handicapper has got a complete nightmare trying to assess the race!
Long Run
rated 30lb better than
Time for Rupert
but only 6 lengths seperating them and the exposed handicapper
The Giant Bolster
beating both having been beaten by both last time they met! One could argue that ‘Long Run’ ran below form but then his stablemate
Burton Port
holds the form together! No I’m afraid my assessment of the race all stemmed from the ‘Lexus’, with
Quito de la Roque
being firmly put in his place by
Synchronised
! Good Luck BHA handicappers you’ll need it!
The Giant Bolster is hardly "exposed" Gord. Improved performer this term. Excuses last time in the Batfair Denman, due to going off much too quick. Always had improvement to come if managing to get his jumping together. Didn’t have that much improvement to find anyway.
Shouldn’t be that difficult to handicap the race Gord.
Going in to the race Timeform had 4 lbs between Synchronised and The Giant Bolster. There was 2 1/4 lengths between them at the finish.
They also had 10 lbs between Synchronised and Time For Rupert. 9 1/2 lengths separated them.
They had 19 lbs between Synchronised and thoroughly exposed Knockara Beau. They were separated by 19 1/2 lengths.
Burton Port rated the same as Synchronised beforehand. However, if we rate him on the Hennessey instead of Betfair Denman… He’d be 3 lbs less than Synchronised. Beaten 8 lengths by Synchronised.
I’d say Synchronised only improved a couple of pounds at most.
The Giant Bolster improving around 3 lbs.
Long Run ran more than a stone below form.
Burton Port ran around 4 lbs below form. Good National trial nevertheless.
Time For Rupert ran to form (ish) possibly improving a pound.
Knockara Beau ran to form.Value Is EverythingSo we run the Gold Cup again, Long Run gives 13lbs to Synchronise and he’ll beat him or dead heat with him. That is not only inconceivable it’s laughable
The question is Ginge,just how far below form was
Long Run
or was he over-rated in the first place,my initial interpretation of events was ‘Time for Rupert’ ran right up to his best hurdle rating of 166,his official mark of 153 would have made him a good thing for the Festival Chase,that was the Real Rupert we saw.’The Giant Bolster’ rated 160 also ran above his mark,i’d say nearer 172 which suggests he is better than the handicapper I called him to emphasisie the difficulty facing the official Handicapper. I rated
Synchronised
at 170 before the off and he’s ran to 177.My marker horse is’Burton Port’ so if he has run to his mark of 166 which i reckon he has then ‘Long run’ never was a 182 horse in the first place,my rating was 178 so he’s run to nearer 170!
Lets not go go down the ‘Kauto Star’ being rated 193 for beating ‘Madison du Berlais’ ‘Barbers Shop’ and ‘Nacarat’ road as that was just making numbers up!
This years Gold Cup reminded me of the days gone by when ‘Handicappers’ who excelled on the day reaped their rewards,’Charter Party’ for one!Not a great race – Synchronised winning proved that
And Henderson needs to be careful with Long Run next season. Should have won comfortably even with WC onboard but faded tamely.
Thought it was a great race – Synchronised is an improver and showed it. Long Run has NEVER convinced me and i don’t think he’s as good as some say. He had every chance and didn’t take it.
Some horses go on ‘forever’ at the top of their game; many others have one great season and never go on from there – maybe LR is in the latter category.
Nuff said.Not a great race but might have been exciting. Must have been similar to one of Best Mate’s performances in terms of RPR. The Giant Bolster ? Handicapper.
Firstly, Matt Chapman saying no one considered Synchronised to be a gold cup horse before the race says alot more about Matt Chapman than it does anyone else.
Secondly, So the gold cup was won by a handicapper, just how well did Long Run do when he ran in his only handicap.
Ludicrously inflated official ratings of the top horses have been blown out the water by a proper street fighter of a horse whose been there and done it in gruelling races, and some people can’t handle it.
I don’t think it is even debatable that Long Run ran below form.
Two years ago, Long Run won the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Warwick over a sharp two miles, despite jumping awfully. Would the Long Run of this year have done that?
He looks much slower.
The Gold Cup time was very fast in comparison to other races on the day and if anything it is the fact than Long Run possesses more speed than stamina that beat him.
As far as would he still win a 2 mile race against horses of the same quality as Jo Jo Star ?……you’d be counting fences instead of lengths
This is where TRF kicks ass! Deciphering the post-big race analysis
Himself – you made me laff with your quotes from the sexperts on ATR.
Wilts – you made me laff more with your comeback.
But Ginger, I need a fresh pair of knickers after reading that Long Run ran a
STONE
below form!!
It wasn’t a great Gold Cup, but I still think it was better than last year. What did Long Run beat in his King George and Gold Cup victories? A below-par Kauto and a horse that doesn’t stay 3 miles (Riverside). Yep, he beat Denman in the Gold Cup which was a good effort, but Denman had not been 100 percent for a while beforehand. OK, so let’s say Denman ran not far off his best (which is pushing it) then you could say Long Ran ran a few pounds below form in this year’s Gold Cup.
I’m not convinced but I cede that Long Run is a good horse because he has beaten much better horses (when they were not 100% IMHO) in Denman and Kauto.
Really, peps are making up some serious excuses for Long Run – he’s just not
that
good. How can Geraghty or Walsh make the horse go any quicker?
How confident are you that he can win next year’s King George and Gold Cup? Not very, I suspect.
So if you feel the opposition is stronger next year for these races it doesn’t say much for the strength of the races he’s been in so far.
I guess as Grand fromage Cormack said – next year’s Gold Cup may answer the questions of how good Henderson’s horse really is.
Only 360 odd days to go then…
Zip
**Warning, contains strong language**
Please remove if offending anyone…..
Firstly, Matt Chapman saying no one considered Synchronised to be a gold cup horse before the race says alot more about Matt Chapman than it does anyone else.
Secondly, So the gold cup was won by a handicapper, just how well did Long Run do when he ran in his only handicap.
Ludicrously inflated official ratings of the top horses have been blown out the water by a proper street fighter of a horse whose been there and done it in gruelling races, and some people can’t handle it.
Ludicrously inflated official ratings? Maybe maybe not
Could the answer be that Long Run is a 182 horse round Kempton but round cheltenham he is not?
On reflection 182 is 11lbs short of Kauto at his very best which would seem fair.
But what about Cheltenham does it really suit Long Run?
He won the Gold Cup but let’s be honest he beat what? Denman who was on the verge of retirement and not within a stone of his best and Kauto Star who was so off colour he was almost beaten for 3rd by What A Friend.
He looked great on the day but that’s easy when you have little or no opposition to contend with.
On his other visits to the course he got stuffed in both the RSA and the Paddy Power.
I would suggest that Long Run is like Kauto was, a Kempton horse and isn’t anyhwere near as good at Cheltenham as we/most of us thought he was.
Put it this way..how many of us would back Synchronised to beat him again in a Gold Cup compared to how many would back him to beat him round Kempton?
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