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I think Silvestre De Sousa has a half decent chance this year,
and goodluck to him, he’s a very good jockey.De Sousa has had a fantastic day today, overtaking Ryan Moore after a slew of winners at Beverley and Southall.
Interestingly, de Sousa’s horses at Beverley started at lower prices than Hanagan’s, suggesting he is now getting top quality opportunities.
I think Hughes and Fallon are out of it now as they won’t be able to beat all of the other three.
Difficult to call it between the big 3. Hanagan maintains a lead, is riding the most frequently and still has the desire. I still make him fav, just, but his recent drop in strike rate is a concern. Moore’s strike rate is the best but it doesn’t look like he will be up for evening rides at Wolverhampton if that’s what it takes in a close finish. On the other hand, the back end of the season tends to favour Southern jockeys. De Sousa is now riding almost as frequently as Hanagan and has a better strike rate. I suspect he is surprised to be doing so well (perhaps helped by an injury to his colleague) and did not plan on going for the championship, but has probably changed his mind now. My decimal odds would be roughly Hanagan 2.6, Moore 3.4, de Sousa 3.1.
Yes – a great day for my boy and the momentum is well and truly with him at the moment. Attracting more and more good rides and is now suspension free.
Mark my words – this boy will win multiple titles. Within the next 2 years he will be stable jockey for one of the biggies.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
A disappointing day today for Hanagan, as he failed to get a winner from a number of short priced horses at Catterick. Meanwhile de Sousa won one of the races.
It is hard to tell if Hanagan is just unlucky or genuinely out of form, but his strike rate has tailed off in recent weeks.
A return to form/luck for Hanagan in his overtime session at Hamilton this evening. Meanwhile SdS continues to rack up the winners steadily.
The net result is that Moore has drifted to 5.0 on the exchange. Fallon lies 4th but is keeping in touch just about, against my expectations.
It will be unprecedented I think to see two Northern jockeys heading the title race. It could work against them if they are competing for the best rides. Moore at 5.0 is maybe worth a punt. Despite his declared lack of interest in the contest he is still riding at places like Yarmouth and Windsor midweek and getting winners fairly steadily. Fallon is surely too short even at 20.0 though.
Four time for Hanagan, just in time too, been rather quiet lately.
SDS still keeps up the pressure though, he is riding out of his skin at the minute, reminds me of a young Fallon.
Will DeSouza have to share the rides with Fallon and Moore while Hanagan gets all the rides in th north?
Unlikely, Andyod. De Sousa and Hanagan ride mostly in the north. Judging by recent races they seem to be both getting good quality rides, but I think they are probably doing each other bit of damage relative to Moore. For example if there is a spare ride on a 2-1 shot, then the trainer is now indifferent between Hanagan and de Sousa whereas maybe at the start of the season Hanagan would have been first choice. This might explain Hanagan’s slightly disappointing strike rate recently.
Greg Wood in the Guardian makes an interesting point on de Sousa’s tendency to get suspended. I hadn’t realised how many days he has already had off. I guess he might now be in danger of a totting up penalty like Hughes, but I don’t fully understand how the rules work.
Hanagan went past 500 rides for the season on Wednesday, and while he could be excused a less pressurised campaign after his wire-to-wire effort last year, the champion seems as determined to defend his title as he was to win it.
And numbers matter. If a rider is challenging for the title, he can be expected to pick up more than his share of spare rides but it is still interesting that not since 2004 – when Frankie Dettori had 192 winners at a remarkable season-long strike rate of 23% – has the jockey with the most rides over the course of the campaign failed to finish on top.
Assuming that an injury or serious suspension does not intervene, Hanagan seems certain to be the busiest jockey again, and while injury is a constant concern, Hanagan’s disciplinary record this season suggests that a long ban is not.
So far in 2011, Hanagan has been suspended for four days, though he picked up another day on Wednesday, while De Sousa has already been banned for 18 days. This suggests two things. First, that it is entirely possible for a top jockey to ride more horses, and more winners, than anyone else while hardly ever straying outside the rules. Second, that De Sousa will probably need to cut his infringement rate almost to zero if he is to keep pace with the champion.
That seems unlikely, and in a market in which, before racing on Tuesday, the prices against the top three added up to 95%, the 7-4 offered against Hanagan retaining his title looks very generous.
We have now passed the halfway mark in terms of both days and races. I don’t think anyone will catch the best of the big 3.
De Sousa has drifted as punters work out the potentially catastrophic effect of any more infringements. But he is by no means out of it.
Moore is still riding frequently enough to win. But it remains to be seen if he gets distracted later on by assignments in France and America.
Hanagan now doesn’t look like he will reach last year’s total. But he is on target for about 170 winners which could be just enough.
Of the outsiders, Buick looks the best value, but still most unlikely to win barring injuries to Hanagan and Moore.
Following Moore’s injury, it is now possible Fallon, Buick or Spencer could win. Hanagan could get injured and de Sousa could get suspended, allowing an outsider to take the spoils.
Fallon would be most likely. He seems willing to ride at places like Leicester and probably needs the money to settle his court case. It remains to be seen whether he will get enough rides to overhaul Hanagan in an injury-free contest but even that is not impossible given Hanagan/Fahey’s not particularly good form recently.
i wouldnt rule out fallon yet is right.he is riding 2 meetings nearly every day at the moment and you would think he would pick up a few rides from stoute now that moore is out.think he still rides work for him doesnt he?he did last year anyway…..
Tonight’s odds:-
Paul Hanagan 4/6
Silvestre De Sousa 7/4
Kieren Fallon 7/1
William Buick 25/1
Richard Hughes 33/1[quote="kasparov". I guess he might now be in danger of a totting up penalty like Hughes, but I don’t fully understand how the rules work.
Here are the rules:-
http://www.thepja.co.uk/Tottingup.aspx
Hughes falls foul of totting up most seasons and is currently on a tightrope where one more ban will incur a couple of weeks off under totting up (hence he voluntarily skipped rides so as not to miss Goodwood).
De Sousa is approaching a totting up ban
Thanks for that clarification, Lingfield. I would say de Sousa and Hughes are odds on for totting up. Say a two thirds chance of losing 14 days at one winner per day would lose them about 10 winners.
Hanagan should still be just about odds on in my view. Buick remains interesting at 40-1 on Betfair. An injury to Hanagan and a suspension for de Sousa could see Buick sneak through.
From the Guardian
In fact, De Sousa will be unable to ride for eight of the next 10 days, thanks to a series of low-key infractions at the end of last month. Three of the eight days relate to minor breaches of the whip rules, a fourth to a careless riding offence, but the bulk of his suspension derives from a race at Epsom when he weighed in a pound and a half lighter than he had weighed out.
He admitted to the raceday officials that he had taken off his waterproof overtrousers after weighing out and that may have made the difference but De Sousa, who gave some thought to an appeal, seemed rueful as he reflected on the matter yesterday. "I weighed myself and I was the same weight, after," he said, "but the jockey has the responsibility.
"It will be good to have a break," he added, frowning. He has no plans to take a holiday but will spend the time with his girlfriend.
De Sousa will be a strong man if he can refrain from watching Hanagan over the next few days, to see if the reigning champ can retake the lead he lost on Tuesday. Five rides at Pontefract on Wednesday yielded nothing better than a couple of seconds for Hanagan, while De Sousa was due to sign off, for now, with three rides at Kempton on Wednesday night.
Kieren Fallon, fourth in the standings, has declared himself a live runner for the championship, which he last won in 2003. "I’ve been lazy all year and haven’t been taking that many rides," he told At The Races, "but I think now we’ve got a couple of months left, I’m going to throw everything at it and see how we go."
Hills are offering a straight forecast market. Of particular interest is Hanagan/Fallon at 8-1. Get on now before the price goes.
On the exchange Hanagan is about 2.5 for the win and Fallon 5.0. So Hanagan/Fallon on a Harville basis should be 2.5 x 5.0 x (1-0.4)= 7.5 or 6.5/1.
However, the odds may be better than that because de Sousa is unlikely to come second. He will probably either win without a totting up penalty or come third or worse with a penalty.
By similar reasoning Fallon/Hanagan at 12-1 also looks good value.
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