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It seems the key contenders this year are Moore, Fallon, Hanagan and Hughes. The others do not appear to be able to get enough rides to win.
I am sure Moore could win if he wants to but I would guess he would be reluctant to take a load of evening rides which would distract him from big race preparation and his young family. On the other hand, if he is contention towards the end, which he is likely to be, he might take a few to make sure he gets over the line. Fallon has said he is going for it as has Hanagan. I think Hughes might also give it another whirl but I fear his riding style risks more suspensions.
Last year was more exciting than usual because it was a close contest. Normally one rider gets so far ahead the others don’t bother to try to catch him.
At this stage I would say Fallon and Hanagan look best value at around 7/2 and 4/1 on the basis of motive and opportunity. Moore probably should be favourite but I have doubts about whether it would be rational for him to go for it 100% so I think he should be about 7/4 rather than about evens.
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Keiren Fallon, without doubt was the best jockey around and he probably still is. However I would lay him till the cows come home.
No matter how much he touts himself talking about championships there are too many owners and trainers who won’t have him.
I don’t need to and won’t to go into details but that is just the way it is.
Although he had the same strike rate last season 17% KF had more than 25% less rides than Paul Hanagan and a similar percentage less than Hughsie.
There’s no way after the betting scandal, just on pricipal, enough owners and trainers are going to jock off their regular jockeys for the man it’s really that simple. The odd owner who hasn’t used him before may ask for him if the stable jockey has gone elsewhere but they will be few and far between. Persoanlly I’d book him in a minute cos he’s brilliant and one of the lads but not everyone thinks like I do……lucky for them
Hughes and Hanagan have the massive advantage of riding for two cracking yards that turn out winners like confetti wheras KF’s agent will need to fight for everything he can get to come anywhere near to getting the same amount of mounts.
I agree with you on Moore I don’t know if he cares as much about numbers as he does riding the right horses in the best races and I can’t see him killing himself to pick up a spare at sunny Southwell after riding a group winner at York eg.
Hughsie got a a taste of the Championship last season when he came so close and was riding like a man possessed right to the end.
I think you’ll find he will ride more horses than he has ever ridden in a season, he’ll carry them over the line if he has to and nothing but nothing will stop him winning the championship this time round. He really wants it and that makes all the difference as Tony McCoy has proved over the jumps year after year.
Have no idea what price he is but will soon find out and stick myself 5o grand on so if you want on you better get on now !! BTW that’s 50,000 baht not pounds which the last time I looked is about oneandonepencehaipney
Hughes is 8/1 in places, so very good value if you think he is up for it and won’t get too many suspensions.
This is beginning to look like a two horse race (so to speak) already. Hanagan has ridden 17 winners out of 94 and appears to be on target for at least 180 out of 1000 (versus 191/1102 last year). With a boosted reputation and a good yard behind him he may do even better.
Moore is on 9/43, Fallon 7/61 and Hughes 7/37. Not impressive as many other jockeys are around this level. I think Fallon’s chances are now remote. He has a suspension and his strike rate isn’t high enough anyway. Similarly Hughes is already a long way behind and likely to get a few suspensions along the way.
Last year Moore did 137/772 but he was injured during a period when he is normally very productive. He won the championship with 186/990 in 2008 and 174/837 in 2009. My guess is he will be hoping to win with around 180/900. I don’t see him taking as many rides as Hanagan because he will probably be riding in Ireland, the USA and France more frequently than Hanagan. The unknown is whether he will take extra rides on the all weather as Hughes and Hanagan did last year. He might but I don’t think he will. It would not be rational in my opinion. He has nothing to prove and it could be a costly distraction from more important races. Furthermore, he knows Hanagan is up for it so he might end up doing lots of nights at Wolverhampton and still lose.
So I would make Hanagan favourite now at evens, with Moore at 6/4, all others combined 9/1. Tom Queally is quoted at 100/1 by some bookmakers and might be worth a flutter – he is currently on a 9/42 strike rate and finished ninth last year – on the basis that there is maybe a small chance that injuries or suspensions rule out the main contenders.
Currently the betting market still has Moore as favourite and there is a long way to go in the season, so maybe I am missing something. However, I know the market took a while to latch onto Luke Morris as AW champ, so it is possible that there is some value left in Hanagan at 2/1 on the exchange.
Luke Morris has emerged from the pack to be second in this contest currently. I am very impressed with him and he has already won the AW championship. However, I can’t see him winning the flat title this year. He appears to be heavily dependent on the AW still for a lot of his wins and I doubt if he has a sufficient following yet to get enough good rides on turf.
So it’s still between Hanagan and Moore. I was slightly disappointed not to get any reaction to my last post. The odds haven’t changed much so it doesn’t look like anyone agreed with me that Hanagan should be fav and piled in. Perhaps those who think Ryan Moore (or anyone else) is the best shot should put their mouths where their money is by contributing to this thread.
Keep an eye out for Silvestre De Sousa. This boy WILL be champion jockey one day and he will probably ride more horses than anyone bar Hanagan. Mark Johnston has started using him as well.
Maybe not this year but had a few quid on him at 40’s and think i might get a run for my money.
Otherwise Hanagan at 9-2 was a steal!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Thanks Jonibake for engaging in the discussion. Yes I had noticed SdS but I agree he is not yet in a position to get enough low odds rides, rather like Luke Morris.
With Hanagan notching up another 3 wins today I don’t think there will be much to discuss soon, except why he remained 2/1 for so long.
Another day, another Hanagan treble yesterday….and with Ryan Moore riding in Hong Kong today, Hanagan should extend his already impressive lead over the next few days.
I can’t see anything stopping Hanagan winning comfortably except injuries or suspensions. These are potentially serious risks so should not to be ignored. However, I would put Hanagan at odds on now. The 2/1 has gone but you can get 15/8 with Paddy Power.
Can’t believe he is still odds against Kasp. He will ride 7 days a week in UK and prob have 5 or 6 fancied rides a day. RM, as you say, will be abroad a lot especially if AOB keeps using him.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Hanagan is now just about favourite with most oddsmakers. Not surprising in view of his massive lead of 12 over the nearest contender, still Luke Morris. I still doubt if Morris will be in contention later in the season but you never know. Perhaps worth the 66-1 you can get in one place.
I still reckon Hanagan should be odds on, so good value at anything over evens.
Betfred have Luke Morris at 100-1. Worth a punt in my view. He is a clear second and seems to be getting plenty of rides with a good strike rate. Also it’s an arb as he is about 40-1 on Betfair.
Hanagan 37, Hughes 19, Moore 18. The cream is rising to the top. SdS and Morris also have 19 but I think Moore will overtake them.
Hanagan must be the strong favourite now. Not only is he well ahead but he clearly retains an appetite for racing, exemplified by a trip from Chester to Ripon yesterday for just one evening ride.
I reckon Hanagan is on target for 200 winners this season, with a standard deviation of about 13 assuming no injuries or suspensions.
Hughes and Moore will end up with about 160 each I reckon, with sd of 12.On balance I reckon Hanagan has a 75% chance of winning or 3-1 on. My model predicts a higher probability but doesn’t allow for injuries or other extreme events.
And another thing………why is Hughes less fancied for this than Moore? I reckon they should both be about 7-1 based on past form and current strike rates and number of races.
Hughes and Moore both had the same strike rate last year but Hughes rode more often. A similar pattern is emerging this year, albeit less pronounced as Moore was injured for some of last year. So I reckon Hughes should end up with slightly more winners than Moore. They could both end up with about 160 winners plus a few more if they go flat out for the title towards the end.
It follows that Hughes (10-1) is much better value than Moore (2-1) at current odds.
Another Hanagan treble yesterday. His workrate continues to be impressive, with a trip up to Newcastle last night for a couple of rides (including a winner) after a busy day at York.
It is slightly disappointing he rides in France (as does Moore) on Sunday. I would rather he conserve his energy for British races.
Hughes and Moore seem to be progressing fairly steadily now and I don’t see anyone being able to overtake the top 3.
It’s still a mystery why Hughes is much longer odds than Moore though. If Hanagan falters I think Hughes is much more likely to go for it than Moore.
Hanagan 45 216 21%
Hughes 25 119 21%
Moore 23 127 18%Barring accidents, Paul Hannigan looks home and hosed, even at this early stage.
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If Hanagan is home and hosed his odds of around 1.7 still look quite favourable.
I have been doing a bit more research and it looks to me as if Moore could struggle to keep up with Hughes, notwithstanding Moore’s winners today.
Look at the relevant leading jockey-trainer combinations so far this season:
Hanagan-Fahey 29/110
Hughes-Hannon 20/89
Moore-Stoute 5/35
Moore-Hannon 5/30
Moore-O’Brien 4/8I think it’s a lot simpler for Hanagan and Hughes to get the winners because they are retained by enormous and successful yards.
In fact I think the biggest risk for Hanagan is probably loss of form at the Fahey yard, rather than something happening to Hanagan himself.
I had been dismissive of Fallon’s chances earlier on, but he is back in contention now, at least for second place, following some very good results, including a treble at Yarmouth today.
25-1 in one place for Fallon looks good value. However, the main anomaly remains Moore who I think should be about 7-1 rather than 2-1, especially now that Fallon has almost caught up with him.
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