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TAPK, I’d say plenty enough time has passed since the Derby and they’re most probably complete different animals by now. And if they have both progressed at a similar rate, the going on the day will have the biggest impact on their proximities in relation to the Derby.
FWIW, (it could be something!)I’d take Rewilding to reverse placings should they both line up at the Arc in November. Still got a cheeky 85’s for a fiver.
I’m most worried about Midas Touch for the Leger, as he looks to be a thorough stayer.
Rewilding doesn’t look like a Leger horse to me especially at 6/4 or whatever he is now. Sharp twelve furlongs at York and he looked good he’s a ten to twelve furlong horse in my book who will get 14 furlongs to a degree but he will not run to his peak.
His breeding suggests he has stamina but then breeding suggested Red Rum would be a sprinter, Dancing Brave was a miler and Mr Brooks was a Derby horse.
- Total Posts 17716
Joshua Tree was having his first run at York when I backed him at 16/1 each-way. I think he’s a cert for tomorrow and when he wins people will look and say "why didn’t i see that, it was obvious".
I agree with Big Bucks.
(in part)Rewilding is a light framed individual who may not take his racing that well. Well suited by the run of the race at York, held up off an overly strong pace. Very probable to stay and acts on both soft and firm surface. However, although he has the best chance of winning (by far), is plenty short enough.
Midas Touch
did by far the best of those up with what looked a suicidal pace in the Voltigeur and is much better than distances suggest. Bred and races as though this trip will be right up his street. Around
7/1
looks too big, although if Ladbrokes (Mike Dillon) go top price will be a little worried about his fitness.
Snow Fairy surprised me by staying a mile and a half. By miler Intikhab (Queen Anne winner) out of 7f winner Woodland Dream who’s by another miler Charnwood Forest. Impressive in Irish Oaks on a soft surface, staying on as if will stay a little further. However, if the rains come it will surely place the emphasis too much on stamina, if (as likely) it’s truly run.
Dandino is one of my favourite horses. Genuine, with a terrific turn of foot for one who stays 1m4f well. Just failed to get up in Gordon Stakes, best run so far. With stamina influence Derby winner Generous as maternal grand-sire (dam 10f winner) it’s just possible he’ll stay. Although sire Dansili was a miler (Breeders Cup) several of his family do stay further including full brother Champs Elysees (1m4f). Although most of Dansili’s progeny don’t stay (Delegator, Zacinto etc) has also produced top class 1m4f winners Rail Link (Arc) and Harbinger. Can’t quite see Dandino staying this trip and must be a question about the ground if it is on the soft side. Won a little maiden at Redcar on it but all improvement this year came on a sound surface. Most of sire’s family (Dansili’s dam Hansili also responsible for Breeders Cup winners Banks Hill and Intercontinental) seem to prefer a sound surface. Will be cheering Dandino on anyway (without investment). Be great to see Elite have a Classic winner. If he improves this time, at the same rate as he’s done all year, will see him right up with Rewilding.
Arctic Cosmos was behind Dandino at Godwood, finished well from too far back. Big horse, a galloping track like Doncaster looks more up his street. Yet to race on a soft surface, placed efforts in Gordon and King Edward (Royal Ascot) on firm surface. By average Derby winner North Light, who’s not proved himself as a sire yet, but looks sure to be a stamina influence. Dam won at sprint distances as well as a mile, but the way Arctic Cosmos runs suggests strongly this trip should suit. Could yet improve but needs to.
Joshua Tree weakened in the closing stages of the Voltigeur. Possibly fitness, but although by Montjeu, the dams family aren’t especially stamina laden. More 8 to 10f. Great grand-dam Magic Of Life won Coronation Stakes. The way he improved in the Royal Lodge on his first start on a sound surface suggests going is important to him.
Ted Spread just does not look up to this class, unless the step up in trip (and possible rain) gives a transformation. Possible, but prices seem to have gone overboard.
Theology could improve back over further. Second in a poor Queens Vase, improving greatly; before a little disappointing in Gordon Stakes at 12f. Not certain to appreciate much rain. Probably needs to improve too much to figure.
Total Command ran well in Queens Vase, but weakened in closing stages after looking likely winner. Was that down to a physical problem? Missing afterwards before running asthough something hurting in Voltigeur. Ran well on heavy as a two year old and rain might help. Full brother to Ledger second Quiff and should stay the trip. Reliability a big issue and needs to improve significantly.
Corsica
has an excellant attitude, been running well in pattern events all year. Isn’t that far behind some of the principles on form. Only around 3 1/2 lengths behind Dandino in Gordon, despite an inadequate trip. A front runner anyway, pacemaker here for Rewilding. If not sacrificed, a strong even pace should be ideal for his chance. Soft going would be a doubt as has improved on a sound surface. Return to a longer trip could enable some more improvement and
66/1
looks a tempting each way opportunity.
My 100% book:
13/8 Rewilding,11/2 Midas Touch
, 17/2 Snow Fairy, 9/1 Dandino, 10/1 Arctic Cosmos, 10/1 Joshua Tree,
33/1 Corsica
, 50/1 Ted Spread, 56/1 Total Command, 100/1 Theology.
Value Is EverythingThe stength of the favourite has certainly made the market for anyone that doesn’t think Rewilding will win. 8/1 bar the favourite is fantastic.
Way too short Rewilding. 11/8 about a horse that
A) Hasn’t won at this level
B) Hasn’t run over this distance
C) Has never yet won back to back races.No thanks!
He may win but I think you’d have to be crazy to be backing him at the price he is now there’s no value in him at all.
Rewilding is a worthy Fav but odds are v skinny. Ticks plenty boxes and no worries that he hasn’t won at the distance as a majority of Leger winners hadn’t previously won at distance before taking the final classic.
Joshua Tree is, to my mind, the most interesting runner. Will appreciate this type of trip and must be noted that Jamie Spencer was very easy on his mount in the Votigeur once his chance had gone….
JOSHUA TREE is on offer at 4-1 with Labrokes betting without the favourite 1-2-3 places, 1/4 the odds, or in fact probably 1-2-3-4 as it’s hard to see Rewilding out of the frame, this looks like a free bet to me.
Well, I could see Rewilding losing…but not Arctic Cosmos winning!
Congratulations to all who backed him and those connected, and now, if connections are to be believed, we can all start to get rather excited about his future hurdling career.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
- Total Posts 17716
Another season on the flat then hurdling. Should be good.
Well done for the season Buick has had. Poor Jimmy must be scathing.
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Well done to everyone who opposed Rewilding; not good enough on the day, but done few favours by a hapless Dettori.
Another season on the flat then hurdling. Should be good.
Well done for the season Buick has had. Poor Jimmy must be scathing.
Personally, I’d love to see them give him a break a few months and then aim him for the Triumph Hurdle, then another break and something like the Ascot Gold Cup.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
- Total Posts 17716
Well done to everyone who opposed Rewilding; not good enough on the day, but done few favours by a hapless Dettori.
He wouldn’t have won today carrying a stone less. Partly blaming Dettori is pathetic though, but you already knew that.
I said Rewilding was a stupid price and for once I was right about something.
Snow Fairy travelled best by a mile but just didn’t get home. Back to a stiff twelve furlongs with a fast early pace and she’ll soon be winning again.
- Total Posts 17716
Who do you think you’re talking to, Phil?
Rewilding, as I have already said, wasn’t even close to being good enough on the day, but that doesn’t alter the fact that Dettori rode an extremely poor race.
He’s not to blame – I haven’t suggested otherwise – but he could have done better.
Rewilding never fired on the day – simple as that.
Even on song, it’s highly unlikely he’d have stayed that brutal test, but we’ll never know for sure.
Those that thought Rewilding wouldn’t or couldn’t win – you were right. Those that think that Rewilding performed to his best – whatever makes you happy
.Dettori said he was beat over a mile out, and John Gosden even remarked that the horse may well be the type that performs best after a break.
What has Dettori supposedly done wrong – not won?
I agree with Big Bucks.
(in part)Rewilding is a light framed individual who may not take his racing that well
. Well suited by the run of the race at York, held up off an overly strong pace. Very probable to stay and acts on both soft and firm surface. However, although he has the best chance of winning (by far), is plenty short enough.
Midas Touch
did by far the best of those up with what looked a suicidal pace in the Voltigeur and is much better than distances suggest. Bred and races as though this trip will be right up his street.
Around 7/1
looks too big
, although if Ladbrokes (Mike Dillon) go top price will be a little worried about his fitness.
Arctic Cosmos was behind Dandino at Godwood, finished well from too far back. Big horse, a galloping track like Doncaster looks more up his street. Yet to race on a soft surface, placed efforts in Gordon and King Edward (Royal Ascot) on firm surface. By average Derby winner North Light, who’s not proved himself as a sire yet, but looks sure to be a stamina influence. Dam won at sprint distances as well as a mile, but the way Arctic Cosmos runs suggests strongly this trip should suit. Could yet improve but needs to.
Corsica
has an excellant attitude, been running well in pattern events all year. Isn’t that far behind some of the principles on form. Only around 3 1/2 lengths behind Dandino in Gordon, despite an inadequate trip. A front runner anyway, pacemaker here for Rewilding. If not sacrificed, a strong even pace should be ideal for his chance. Soft going would be a doubt as has improved on a sound surface. Return to a longer trip could enable some more improvement and
66/1
looks a tempting each way opportunity.
My 100% book:
13/8 Rewilding,11/2 Midas Touch
, 17/2 Snow Fairy, 9/1 Dandino, 10/1 Arctic Cosmos, 10/1 Joshua Tree,
33/1 Corsica
, 50/1 Ted Spread, 56/1 Total Command, 100/1 Theology.
1st Arctic Cosmos SP 12/1, (better than my price to beat).
2nd Midas Touch SP 13/2, available at 10/1 this morning.
3rd Corsica 40/1, available at 66/1 this morning.
Value Is Everything
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