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Yes; I think I fancied it last year and it’s got a better draw this year. However, I don’t think I’m backing it tonight; can’t be bothered to go out into the cold to drive to the bookies. Will stick with Americain, Holberg, Manighar and Monaco Consul. If I go to put a bet on Haris Tweed I’ll be tempted by Bauer and probably half a dozen others. As it is, it’s going to be a long night! I’m keeping calm by making soup…
I hope profound beauty runs well be great to see the master of rosewell land another melbourne cup, nice e/w price at the moment 20/1 and 4 places with paddy power!!
Chapman will keep me awake, along with the following horses – Chinchilla, Belscenica, I’m Imposing, Devils Arcade, Spurcific and Alotta Spur – in the first 6 races. I expect Chapman to be on top form for tonight’s entertainment.
The only reason Mr Medici’s trainer might prefer better ground is the distance query since there aren’t races further than 2400m in HK. The horse is an absolute swimmer (though he handles firm tracks quite well) and if this were 12f connections would be praying for a soaked track. He runs like he wants further than 12f but still a risk for obvious reasons.
He’s a real fighter who doesn’t have a great burst of speed (a bit like Spanish Moon) so he’ll need it all to go his way to win. He doesn’t like being between horses but from the draw and with Australia’s top jock aboard he shouldn’t be. He will run handy and they will happily take the lead if nobody wants to. No matter what happens he will be fighting hard. In HK he’s well known for his frequent placings against top milers despite his staying credentials.
On form Illustrious Blue might be up there with the likes of Manighar but the ground is a worry. I’d take So You Think on at the price (for the win). He is jaw-droppingly good at 10f but we’ll see…
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Think I’ll have a little £50 ew Holberg, horse has proven some serious ratings at Goodwood when half fit and gets the trip with a electric turn of foot.
I think Illustrious Blue offers value at 69/1 on Betfair, considering he has a nice draw, will love the strong gallop, and has a nice turn of foot!!
I dont think the ground will be a worry, because when they say its soft in Australia its near enough what we would call good-soft(good in places)!!
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This is So You Think’s to lose, surely?
I’ve gone for Americain as hopefully it will be versatile re tactics and can quicken away at the right time.
Only £4 e/w at 12/1 mind.
Let’s hope it’s a good race!
Zip
Track’s in good order. It’s definitely not Heavy or Soft in British terms. Middle might be favoured, although that’s on limited evidence.
I think Illustrious Blue offers value at 69/1 on Betfair, considering he has a nice draw, will love the strong gallop, and has a nice turn of foot!!
I dont think the ground will be a worry, because when they say its soft in Australia its near enough what we would call good-soft(good in places)!!
With the ground what it is he might be massive overs. Reading form literally he has Manighar and through that horse a few others covered.
The horse has his own blog and twitter too. Very bullish in them of course!
http://illustriousblue.blogspot.com
http://twitter.com/illustriousblueAnother winner down the middle. Any jockey on the rail is probably wasting their time.
Well the track was ok before that appeared….
What an amazing story if Shoot Out wins… he’s been running like the distance would suit. His last run wasn’t dissimilar to Shocking’s. I’ll be rooting for him and Mr Medici, with some money on Illustrious Blue.
Bullish from Bart. He said something along the lines of "we bought him for it (the Cup), trained him for it, and he’s bred for it".
For anyone without ATR or anything else showing the race, here’s a veetle link. You’ll need to download Veetle to view it.
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