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Moudre is certainly progressive – there was a 9 kg ~20lbs improvement between its last two races!
edit: bad news for my Cox Plate bet – they’ll decide later whether Metal Bender is a Caulfield Cup or a Cox Plate horse, though I suppose if they choose the Caulfield Cup it means he wouldn’t have won the Cox anyway.
Shoot Out (High Chaparral)
http://www.coolmore.com/images/dynamic/news/shoot_out_derby.jpg
"This is the best horse by far that I’ve ever trained." – Wallace
Being a European front runner isn’t always a bad thing, if they ride them correctly. Look at Give the Slip.
If there is a slow pace on, ride like they do in England. Probably start 5 or 6 lengths back (even if wide), then slowly accelerate towards the leaders.
This approach worked wonders for Persian Punch.
If there is a fast pace, just settle off the leader.
Yeah, I don’t mind Moudre, I can think of worse horses who have scraped into a Melbourne Cup.
And just personally, I reckon Metal Bender will run in both the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate. And he can win both.
It’s not unprecendented. Horses use to do it all the time.
Predatory Pricer was going to run in both last year, but injured himself in the Caulfield Cup.
Maldivian won the Cox Plate after running 12th in the Caulfield Cup.
Elvstroem started second favourite in the Cox Plate a week after beating Makybe Diva in the Caulfield Cup, but he missed the start and had no hope after that.
Fields of Omagh finished 5th in the great Cox Plate of 2002 after running 2nd in the Caulfield Cup.
Northerly did the double in 2002.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Metal Bender in all three legs – Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, Melbourne Cup.
And I can’t wait for this weekend, the first trickle of spring racing!
Possible Cup horses this weekend include Brightnight, Breccia, Shoot Out, Gorky Park, Fairygem, Fast Future, Moatize, Precedence, Douro Valley and Apprehend.
Of those, you’d say that the three most likely to make it are Shoot Out, Moatize and Precedence. If Gorky Park comes back well, add him too. Brightnight could improve, Douro Valley is well past it, don’t know if Apprehend or Fast Future are good enough, and Fairygem needs it wet.
Stop creating more work for me with all those extra horses.
15min 43 sec radio interview, with John Wallace, trainer of Shoot Out.
http://www.sport927.com.au/audioplayer/1280194029.mp3
(Click on play to start.)
Bensley interviewed David Moodie. Said Red Colossus wouldn’t go to the Melbourne Cup this year as a 4yo, but next year instead. This year will go for the lesser races such as the Queen Elizabeth (didn’t catch the others, memory of a gnat).
Came across an old story about Zabrasive. Just posting it because I’ve never heard of wobbling before.
Zabrasive overcomes ‘wobbler’ tag to be a Caulfield contender, says trainer O’Shea
* Nathan Exelby
* From: The Courier-Mail
* March 22, 2010 7:05PMJOHN O’Shea is convinced he has a legitimate Caulfield Cup hope in the shape of Rosehill Guineas aspirant Zabrasive, but the gelding was almost overlooked as a yearling because some suspected him to be a "wobbler".
Zabrasive was a first-up winner at Wyong and then proved his Guineas and AJC Derby credentials with a strong fourth in Shoot Out’s Randwick Guineas. Yet some observers at the 2008 New Zealand Yearling Sales felt he wasn’t a racing proposition at all.
Zabrasive’s $95,000 price tag was less than you would expect for a son of Zabeel from a Group 1 placed stakes-winning Danehill mare.
"He was a real loose walking horse and not without his faults," Haunui’s Mark Chitty, who prepared him for sale, said. "We did the deal to sell him but then it was suggested he was a wobbler."
Chitty explained, in simple terms, that wobbling was a form of unco-ordination and in many cases can lead to the horse being put down.
The most famous example of a "wobbler" in recent times is Anabaa, who was diagnosed with the condition as a young horse before winning the Group 1 July Cup and later becoming a successful shuttle stallion.
"I just said if that is the case, we would take him back to the farm and get a second opinion. The last thing I want to do is sell a horse with a problem," Chitty said.
"Thankfully, he has since proven a lot of people wrong. John ended up with two Zabeels from our draft out of that sale, but the other one broke its leg, so it’s ironic that the cheap one turned out to be the good one."
O’Shea, who paid tribute to vets’ advice in overlooking the potential problem, has long felt Zabrasive was a promising stayer in the making and he is relishing the chance to test him over 2000m for the first time on Saturday.
"I made the decision to run in the Randwick Guineas after having a good look at the Hobartville, where there wasn’t a lot between the restricted horses and the proven Group horses," O’Shea said.
"He lacks some of the seasoning and toughness of a horse like Shoot Out, so I thought it was important that we gave him the experience in a race like that and I was really happy with his effort. If he can win one of these big races coming up, that will qualify him for the Caulfield Cup and that’s the main aim."
Haunui Farm has an O’Reilly half-brother to Zabrasive for sale at next month’s Sydney Easter Yearling Sale.
"The AJC Derby comes after the sale, so I’m hoping John has him tuned up to win the Rosehill Guineas this weekend," Chitty said.
Phar Lap rated best Melbourne Cup winner
WILL BRODIE
July 28, 2010 – 1:38PMLegendary racehorse Phar Lap has been given top weight of 60 kilograms in a fictional field for the greatest ever Melbourne Cup. The VRC is labelling the hypothetical race "The Greatest Cup Never Run".
The field will ‘race’ against each other in a digital simulation on Melbourne Cup day this year to decide the crown of the greatest Melbourne Cup champion of all time.
Racing Victoria’s chief handicapper Greg Carpenter rated his top 24 horses and gave the 1930 winner the honour of the number one saddlecloth ahead of Carbine (59kg) who won in 1890. A panel of 22 racing experts will assess the field and determine the outcome of the hypothetical race.
Three-time winner Makybe Diva (2003-2005) and Peter Pan (1932) received 58 kilograms.
The field was unveiled at a function to launch glossy tome The Story of the Melbourne Cup, Australia’s Greatest Race at the Melbourne museum on Wednesday to celebrate this year’s 150th running of Australia’s most famous race. Luminaries in attendance included the Premier, John Brumby, and racing identities Glen Boss and Roy Higgins.
Greatest Cup never run: the field
NO HORSE NAME TRAINER JOCKEY BARRIER WEIGHT
1 PHAR LAP Harry Telford Jim Pike (21) 60kg
2 CARBINE Walter Hickenbotham Bob Ramage (16) 59kg
3 MAKYBE DIVA Lee Freedman Glen Boss (14) 58kg
4 PETER PAN Frank McGrath Darby Munro (13) 58kg
5 GALILEE Bart Cummings John Miller (1) 57.5kg
6 POSEIDON Ike Earnshaw Tom Clayton (3) 57.5kg
7 RISING FAST Ivan Tucker Jack Purtell (11) 57kg
8 RAIN LOVER Mick Robins Jim Johnson (7) 56kg
9 COMIC COURT Jim Cummings Pat Glennon (24) 55.5kg
10 GRAND FLANEUR Tom Brown Tom Hales (4) 55.5kg
11 MIGHT AND POWER Jack Denham Jim Cassidy (12) 55kg
12 ARCHER Etienne De Mestre Johnny Cutts (22) 54kg
13 VINTAGE CROP Dermot Weld Mick Kinane (10) 54kg
14 DELTA Maurice McCarten Neville Sellwood (9) 53.5kg
15 MALUA Isaac Foulsham Alick Robertson (17) 53.5kg
16 NIGHTMARCH Alex McAulay Roy Reed (5) 53.5kg
17 POITREL Harry Robinson Ken Bracken (20) 53.5kg
18 SAINTLY Bart Cummings Darren Beadman (2) 53kg
19 THE BARB John Tait William Davis (18) 53kg
20 DALRAY Clarrie McCarthy Bill Williamson (19) 52.5kg
21 HALL MARK Jack Holt Jack O’Sullivan (23) 52.5kg
22 LIGHT FINGERS Bart Cummings Roy Higgins (15) 52.5kg
23 DORIEMUS Lee Freedman Damien Oliver (6) 52kg
24 THINK BIG Bart Cummings Harry White (8) 52kgWould that be the Bill Williamson that rode over here in the 60s and 70s (when Lester didn’t jock him off)?
Seem to be mentioning the same horses again and again at the moment.
Metal Bender will have one barrier trial, and then run
21st Aug Warwick Stakes
4th Sept Chelmsfordbefore transferring to
18th Sept Underwood
News though is that trainer Chris Waller reckons he’s a bit one-paced at the moment, and more of a Cups than Cox Plate horse (, though not ruling the latter out).
Gaiwatch
Just a Blaze
(The Gladiator) was in blinkers today and I told him if he did not improve he would have a severe reprimand from his trainer and his owners.
Tullamore
(Savabeel) came out of zombie zone this morning when matching strides with his equally dopey mate Power Personified, a son of Exceed and Excel who I thought was a real Golden Slipper horse at one stage but he has successfully maintained his maiden-hood.
Nash’s unequivocal best was
Two for Tea
(Drama Critic). The big rangy chestnut commences racing next Saturday at Newcastle and I told him not to speak to Just a Blaze before the race.
Yes, but I’m still not totally convinced. Jordon announced that the two venues had passed the Inspectorate, but does this still need to be rubber-stamped by someone in the Federal Government?
AQIS effectively is the Government, it’s been rubber stamped.
In fact, I fielded a couple of calls from the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries this afternoon, and it’s been 100% approved.
http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/images/uploadedfiles/editorial/pictures/2009/04/29/porker.jpg
JessicabeelO’Shea Signals Two-Pronged Cup Attack
Wednesday, 28 July 2010:Jessicabeel continued to improve with ground over the autumn, culminating with wins in the Group 2 Chairman’s Stakes over 2600m at Randwick before the Group 1 Sydney Cup over two miles at the same track.
O’Shea said the mare had furnished so much during her break he had to bring her back into the stable fearing she may get away from him before the spring.
The Zabeel mare will begin her Melbourne Cup campaign in Sydney before heading south for the spring majors.
“We gave her a short break and then brought her back in and gave her another short break, she had done so well,” O’Shea told Sport 927.
“She’s put on an enormous amount of weight and developed tremendously – hopefully not too much.
“We’re very happy with her and will have a campaign just targeted at the Cup.
“She’ll have three runs in Sydney then come down and run in the Caulfield Cup then probably have another run before the Melbourne Cup.”
Hey guys, sorry for joining in so late, love your work. Just wondering if ‘Ma Chienne’ should be on your list. Runner up in the Perth Cup to Lord’s Ransom, absolutly flying at the end and probably should have won. I think you’ll find she’ll be nominated come Monday.
Also I reckon there’s a potential Cup horse running in Adelaide on saturday. ‘Hastein’ trained by Mark Kavanagh. By Viking Ruler out of a Zabeel mare. Place 7 of it’s 8 starts including a last start 10 length win over 1950m. It’s only 1200m on Saturday, but should be running on first up. I reckon he’ll be in the noms released on Monday.
Again, love your work
The good stuff comes from Andy – I just spend quite a lot of time surfing for articles.
My bitch.
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