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It’s a a totally false price and in a minute Iwill explain why The horse was available at 12/1 the day beforethe race. Yeats had aready been beaten. Pakthai wins a 4 horse race against an AW weather winner who is a millinium away from being a Gold Cup horse you think he’s a 2/1 shot to win one of the toughest races on the calendar. You cant even be sure he would get the trip in a true run race.
Sure he’s a decent horse but the only reason Blue Square cut him to 2/1 is they laid the horse for the AGC in the morning before he won that race. In short thier book was full and they didn’t want any more money for the horse. No way do they believe for 1minute he’ a 2/1 shot.
You better get up a lot earlier in the morning if are going to come on here thinking your some sort of smart ass matey.
It’s a a totally false price and in a minute Iwill explain why The horse was available at 12/1 the day beforethe race. Yeats had aready been beaten. Pakthai wins a 4 horse race against an AW weather winner who is a millinium away from being a Gold Cup horse you think he’s a 2/1 shot to win one of the toughest races on the calendar. You cant even be sure he would get the trip in a true run race.
Sure he’s a decent horse but the only reason Blue Square cut him to 2/1 is they laid the horse for the AGC in the morning before he won that race. In short thier book was full and they didn’t want any more money for the horse. No way do they believe for 1minute he’ a 2/1 shot.
You better get up a lot earlier in the morning if are going to come on here thinking your some sort of smart ass matey.
The 12/1 was the false price "matey". lol
I DIDN’T say he I thought he was a 2/1 shot. I just said I don’t think it is a ridiculous price. I think 4/1 is still very fair, just as thought 12/1 was the day before and the 16/1 a couple of days before that.
2/1 may seem short but as he is a very likely runner I don’t think it is excessive. What % chance would you give to Yeats turning up, and if he didn’t what price would you be on Patkai then?
And they won’t have laid much Ante Post prior to the price.
The part of your post I didn’t understand was saying that 2/1 was a joke price and then saying it was a 2 horse race?!?!?
BlackType,
As it currently stands, despite me being a big Patkai fan there are too many negatives for him to be 2/1 favourite for the Gold Cup.
The main plus is he handles Ascot very very well and he’s one of the shining lights in what is, in all honesty, a weak division at the moment.
The negatives…….. He hasnt run 2m4f before, he didnt beat anything substantial in his first prep race, the trainer hasnt won the race since the 1970s. Look back at SMS quotes from last year too and he actually says he’s not bred for anything further than 2 miles….. (something I only just noticed when I went digging)
The bookies have shortened him so much because they cant see anything other than Yeats in this division. If something else runs well over 2m or in the Chester Cup next week no doubt they’ll be shortened dramatically too.
At anything above 8’s he’s worth the punt but at 2/1 favourite he’s not worth it with the negatives about him.
As much as I like him, he’s a false favourite
I can think of another horse, Hindu Kush handles all ground and stays all day. After his brilliant staying performance in the St Leger I said to myself "Ascot Gold Cup horse".
There"s more chance of him running in the "Pitmans Derby" than the Gold Cup Bul, he would probably get top weight mind, but being trained by the
"Sprint King" it could be a pipe opener for the Ayr Gold Cup!Well they are currently backing him for the chester cup despite the fact he’ll surely be close to (if not) top weight. He’s already listed class ratingswise and crying out for a trip. Goes on anything, and owner won last years chester cup with my namesake.
Trainer does specialise with sprinters but it doesnt mean that it is all he can train, and he already seems to have worked out that he wants a trip, by the fact he stepped him up on his previous run for the vintage crop, and has him entered in up and coming stayers races.
He’s no cert for the ascot gold cup, but at 50-1 he’s a nice horse and has a bucket load of potential for it.
BlackType,
As it currently stands, despite me being a big Patkai fan there are too many negatives for him to be 2/1 favourite for the Gold Cup.
The main plus is he handles Ascot very very well and he’s one of the shining lights in what is, in all honesty, a weak division at the moment.
The negatives…….. He hasnt run 2m4f before, he didnt beat anything substantial in his first prep race, the trainer hasnt won the race since the 1970s. Look back at SMS quotes from last year too and he actually says he’s not bred for anything further than 2 miles….. (something I only just noticed when I went digging)
The bookies have shortened him so much because they cant see anything other than Yeats in this division. If something else runs well over 2m or in the Chester Cup next week no doubt they’ll be shortened dramatically too.
At anything above 8’s he’s worth the punt but at 2/1 favourite he’s not worth it with the negatives about him.
As much as I like him, he’s a false favourite
Thats fair enough, he does seem very short but there is no way he should be 8/1. Remember the bookies have to factor in the fact that Yeats may not run. I stand by my previous post that 2/1 is not a joke price. I’m not suggesting he is going to win or should be shorter, just disagreeing with the slagging of Blue Square for taking a view. Lets hope they go bigger price on everyone else if they really like Patkai?
Just looking from a compilers point of view with the 2 horses.
1) Yeats – plus points – supreme champion, certainly stays, multiple CD form etc, proven G1 performer.
– negatives – 8 years old, disappointed on debut (although may just have blown up). The crucial question with Yeats for me is will he go straight to Ascot or have another prep run? If he ran again and finished down the field then would he turn up at Ascot? Of course if he ran again and won then he would be Fav again and rightly so.2)Patkai – plus points – Young improving, shown form this year (however dubious), almost certain to line up.
negatives – Unproven at this level, will he stay?Whether you side with Yeats, Patkai or anything else is a matter of opinion but for me I would rather back Patkai @ 4/1 and hope he stays at this stage.
Just 6 weeks to wait anyway!!
Patkai is interesting, won the Vase at 2m last season, easily. However, that was slowly run and can a horse by Indian Ridge stay a truly run 2m4f?
Don’t know about the truly run bit.
There are 43 horses by Indian Ridge, out of a Sadler’s Wells mare.
On earnings there seem to be about 7 other good ones, apart from Patkai. The one that won the furthest was High Pitched, who won the 1m5f Listed Aston Park Stakes at Newbury.
Approaching the subject form a different angle, I had a look at recent past winners of the Gold Cup.
Westerner was by Danehill
Mr Dinos was by Desert King (Danehill)Third angle.
The mum’s side are a family of stayers. Patkai’s Conduit Mare Profile is 3-7-5-8-7, working left to right from speed to stamina. Don’t really know the significance of that, as I haven’t played about with it.
- Total Posts 17716
Big day for Paktai fans today. He will have to win this doing handstands to justify his 7/4 tag.
I still wouldn’t advise anyone to take that price though as he could end up a lot longer by the time of the race.
With it looking like Yeats is going to make it, all it will take is another bit of news to leak out of AOB’s yard and he’ll be backed off the boards.
Taken decent prices about the Spanish raider
Bannaby
Looking at the stats:
He’s won on good (including in Spain – likely to be a fair bit faster than good), good to soft, very soft.
He’s won at the trip – Prix Du Cadran last year on good ground.
He’s in good form – beat Shumookh over 10f in Madrid and ran a good third to Americain over 1m 7 1/2f last time out.
He’s won going right-handed – see win at Maisons-Lafitte
He’s beaten a number of fancied horses – prior to this season we were talking about Kasbah Bliss vs. Yeats, both of whom he beat in the Prix Du Cadran last year.
Think even at the 12/1 he is now he rates as a cracking bet for a top trainer who’s record in Group 1’s is second to none
Admitedly I havent seen the race yet…….however, the fact that I’ve just seen Patkai went to 1/100 in running and faded back out and lost gives me the impression that he may have failed to stay the extra distance?
Am I right? Really looking forward to seeing this now when I get home.
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Great stuff getting 12’s but is this a joke? Horse wins a non event at 2/5 and Blue Square cut him to 2’s
. Nice horse admitedly but a far cry from anything Yeats has achieved.
I see nothing wrong with Yeats running down the park considering what AOB has in mind for him. You can bet your boots he wasn’t anywhere near fit and he has been beaten before when he looked like he should have won easily. He was long odds on not that long ago and was beat.
Yeats has one target this season and O’brien has one entry. No Septimus only Yeats.
4/1? I’ll be havig plenty of that over the next few days and this who are scraping about trying to get evens a coupe of weeks before the race will be wishing they had to.
If I had 12’s Paktai that would give me even more reason to back Yeats as I can’t think of another horse who will get near the pair come the big day
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These sort of comments slagging bookmakers really make me laugh.
On the one hand you say its a joke that somebody goes 2/1 yet in the same post you say you think it is a two horse race and one of those ran a shocker on its debut and would be far from a certainty to even line up!!
Personally I think he is a bet at 4/1. You know he is going for the race and has shown he is fit and well this season. Admittedly he didn’t beat much but how strong is the Gold Cup line up likely to be?
2/1 is not a bad price in my opinion.
You were saying?
I’d need excuses for Patkai looking so quirky in the business end of the race before I could entertain him over 20 furlongs in the GC………..he travelled well until being sent on when he edged right and then later appeared to jink again.Doubtful runner?
Patkai will go to the Gold Cup, he was disappointing, he was pulling to me and was never enjoying it, Ascot seems to be a better hunting ground for him, so I wouldn’t rule him out, but I think it’s apparent he will need fast ground or otherwise you can’t be backing him, that said if he gets it he still has a chance in my book.
- Total Posts 17716
I can think of another horse, Hindu Kush handles all ground and stays all day. After his brilliant staying performance in the St Leger I said to myself "Ascot Gold Cup horse".
There"s more chance of him running in the "Pitmans Derby" than the Gold Cup Bul, he would probably get top weight mind, but being trained by the
"Sprint King" it could be a pipe opener for the Ayr Gold Cup!More words of wisdom from TAPK
Patkai got stuffed and Hindu Kush just put up a great staying performance to beat the odds on Alandi.
Nice one Bully 50/1 and his odds have halved with some bookies, must have decent chance of running in the Gold Cup now if they think he’ll get the trip.
Just seen the race. Cannot work out what happened there with Patkai edging right across Tungesten Strike and a couple of other runners in the final few furlongs……
The one thing to note from that race for me was the way that Tastahil ran on. The extra distance at Ascot will do Tastahil the world of good and he’s definitely going to Ascot with a live chance in my opinion.
That said, I’ve actually taken 12/1 on Veracity tonight. I think he’ll thrive over the Gold Cup distance and think that Godolphin are finally taking the right horse to this race. Regal Flush was by no means the right horse to take to the Gold Cup last year whereas Veracity is the perfect horse.
Veracity will stay, is being campaigned right at 2 miles thus far (bar the Pontefract win over 2m2f) and could sneak this in what is a really open long-distance flat division this year.
There are far worse 12/1 shots and with Patkai a quarter of the odds to what he was when I first noted him I want to take him on!
While bookmakers have overreacted to Patkai odds, people on here are overreacting and seemingly glad Patkai lost almost to the point of cartwheels.
Patkai is still a very young horse for this division and can only get better with age, in a NH Flat surely Patkai would have got more than the 2lbs he was given, given a fast ground he will surely improve at his favouritee racecourse. But only on fast surface he should be backed on the day and not an Ante-Post bet.
I think Patkai has a bright future and that being said he was misbehaving for me out there during the race and the winner hardly helped his cause although that isn’t an excuse as he was legit beaten.
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