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Runs next Saturday in the UAE Derby as a prep.
This race seems interesting to me. Sorry for slight off-topic
, but would anyone like to rate the outcome briefly? Has Lancaster Bomber a winning chance, or is Thunder Snow’s favouritism justified?
I would be grateful for your assessments, please fire away ;-).Hein, i would not say Lancaster Bomber will win, but he did finish in front of Thunder Snow in the Dewhurst. Thunder Snow won a trial on the course a month ago so you would imagine he would have a fitness advantage and like Steve said LB has to show he has trained on.
Just watching the race myself,it should be a great day.
Thank you Botchy, I watched this UAE 2000 Guineas online, and TS won it impressively, but the problem is to assess what the opponents were worth. LB is a real darkhorse here formwise and also how he copes with dirt?! So I think I better stay on the sideline and wait for clearer favourites..
I backed Thunder Snow at 7/4 for the UAE Derby.
In my opinion he has so much more going for him than Lancaster Bomber. Even setting aside the concern about the Breeders Cup run for a moment, there are more question marks about the O’Brien Colt.
How will he cope travelling to Meydan? Will the surface suit? How fit will he be first time up, this early in the season?
I am not sure if he is guaranteed to line up on Saturday but if he does he will be stepping up to 9.5 Furlongs and on balance I would say that Thunder Snow looks the more likely of the two to be suited by the trip, as he looked better the further he went last time.
I actually took Thunder Snow on last time, as he was pretty short early doors. I did Cosmo Charlie each-way at 11/2, feeling he was a lock to be in the first three. In the end Cosmic Charlie was backed in to 5/2 and, sods law, Thunder Snow drifted to backable odds at 6/4. On the day Cosmic Charlie ran like a drain, completely below his form, never better than mid division.
Next time out Cosmo Charlie stepped up in trip, as I had considered that he should, and scored over the extra furlong and a half, reversing form with those who had been ahead of him in Thunder Snow’s race. The collateral form of that latter race leaves Cosmo Charlie with quite a bit to find with Snow Thunder, but he might be interesting each-way at 16/1 over the same trip he won at last time.
I find the USA form of Master Plan and the Japanese form of Epicharis hard to weigh up but I feel Thunder Slow looks potentially faster than both of those runners.
I reckon Thunder Snow will be tough to beat.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yes Steve, i see LB being tried on Dirt and over the trip to see if they are going to The Kentucky Derby or staying at a mile on turf.
Also he is on the plane now with Ryan booked so he must be running.
I reckon Thunder Snow will be tough to beat.
Thank you very much, Steve to enlighten my darkness :-). I mean, your analysis strengthened my original feeling about Thunder Snow and I will probably back him as soon as rule4 applies and if the odds remain around 6/4.
Also thanks to you, Botchy for mentioning this race here, otherwise I would have missed it..Yes Steve, i see LB being tried on Dirt and over the trip to see if they are going to The Kentucky Derby or staying at a mile on turf.
Also he is on the plane now with Ryan booked so he must be running.
Seems an odd race to choose as a Guineas prep if they thought they were going to run him at Newmarket. I reckon after the BC they probably only want to run him on super fast ground or dirt.
Seems an odd race to choose as a Guineas prep if they thought they were going to run him at Newmarket. I reckon after the BC they probably only want to run him on super fast ground or dirt.
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He’s never ran on Dirt before TheGun, maybe a prep to see if he goes on dirt and gets the extra distance.If so he might go to the USA, if not then you would think he will go for a Guineas of some sort as they know he gets a mile ok.
Yes Steve, i see LB being tried on Dirt and over the trip to see if they are going to The Kentucky Derby or staying at a mile on turf.
Also he is on the plane now with Ryan booked so he must be running.
I know the Coolmore boys would love to win the Kentucky Derby. Michael Tabor has said it is one of his favourite races of the year. I am certainly nowhere near as enthused about it as he is, it barely registers a blip on my interest meter. I don’t think I have ever placed a bet on the race.
A word of caution with Lancaster Bomber is that his only win was in maiden company, by a short head. It’s always been a bone of contention with me to be overly confident of horses whose best form is in good races, but only when placed, rather than winning. His Dewhurst runner up spot is his best run by quite a way to my mind.
I was in my local Ladbrokes today and saw 2/1 on Thunder Snow, so I have had a bit more on him. I think 6/4 is more like his true price.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lancaster Bomber was Churchill’s pacemaker in the three races up to and including the Dewhurst Stakes, so was never given a chance to run on his own merit. His performance in battling on to take second place in the Dewhurst surprised them (though he was running on the best ground) and he did run very well on firm in the US, so the surface in Meydan may suit him well. He may not be a typical War Front in that he has battling qualities, and he’s a half brother to Excelebration who improved markedly from two to three. Ballydoyle are taking an usually large team of 9 horses to Dubai, difficult to know whether it is a statement of intent or whether they are prepping horses for other targets. So it’s a game of watch and see. Thunder Snow is the likelier winner on Saturday, because he has had a prep and is proven on the surface, and we can be sure that he will be primed to run to his best.
Looking back at Daddy Long Legs. He ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile but was tailed off. I remember at the time thinking that he was out of the race so soon that he came home in his own time and may not have done himself much harm.
That looked sound enough thinking when he came out and won the UAE Derby but, boy did it work out awfully for him after that. The fact that Daddy Long Legs had run on Dirt at the Breeders Cup was another reason I was hopeful that he might not be too badly affected by the run. His stable mate Wrote ran in the Turf version and won it but could manage only 3rd to Daddy Long Legs when favourite for the UAE Derby. His form after that tailed off, never winning again and becoming another Breeders Juvenile Turf winner to flop the next season.
Daddy Long Legs himself next ran in the Kentucky Derby, where he broke well but lost his position after half a mile and was tailed off and pulled up. A dismal effort there was followed by a decent 4th to Power in the Irish 2000 Guineas but after that his career simply went down the pan, a shadow of the horse who had looked promising.
Daddy Long Legs was by Scat Daddy, the sire of Caravaggio and like War Front, these US sires have not been training on at 3yo the way you would hope for. This year should tell us more but with Scat Daddy passing away it won’t be of use for the future from his side.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m not sure that there is an issue with Scat Daddy’s progeny training on. Last year he had 17 black type winners, 13 of whom were 3yo+ (and the remaining 4 2yo winners still have a chance to prove themselves as 3yo+). No Nay Never failed to win the BC Turf Sprint by just 1/2L. Acapulco is now in training with Aidan O’Brien, so they must have hopes for her as a 4yo. Daddy Long Legs did train on to perform well in the early part of his 3yo season, whatever may have happened to him subsequently. Caravaggio and Lady Aurelia have yet to run as 3yos. That accounts for all the Scat Daddies of note this side of the pond.
Regarding Caravaggio and the 2000 Guineas, I see a Scat Daddy colt out of a Holy Bull mare (same breeding as Caravaggio) won a stakes race over a mile at the weekend having made his debut over 5f last August. So, can be done!Saying that, I don’t see them running Caravaggio in the 2000 Guineas, I think they will run Churchill and War Decree, with Cliffs of Moher running in the French Guineas and Caravaggio in the Commonwealth Cup.
I’m not sure that there is an issue with Scat Daddy’s progeny training on. Last year he had 17 black type winners, 13 of whom were 3yo+ (and the remaining 4 2yo winners still have a chance to prove themselves as 3yo+). No Nay Never failed to win the BC Turf Sprint by just 1/2L. Acapulco is now in training with Aidan O’Brien, so they must have hopes for her as a 4yo. Daddy Long Legs did train on to perform well in the early part of his 3yo season, whatever may have happened to him subsequently. Caravaggio and Lady Aurelia have yet to run as 3yos. That accounts for all the Scat Daddies of note this side of the pond.
Regarding Caravaggio and the 2000 Guineas, I see a Scat Daddy colt out of a Holy Bull mare (same breeding as Caravaggio) won a stakes race over a mile at the weekend having made his debut over 5f last August. So, can be done!Each to their own beliefs, I am going against them regarding UK Classics, as I have done successfully up to now,
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Saying that, I don’t see them running Caravaggio in the 2000 Guineas, I think they will run Churchill and War Decree, with Cliffs of Moher running in the French Guineas and Caravaggio in the Commonwealth Cup.
I’d say this is how it likely pans out. I for one hope Caravaggio does train on as he has the potential to be one of the stars of the season.
I’m not sure that there is an issue with Scat Daddy’s progeny training on. Last year he had 17 black type winners, 13 of whom were 3yo+ (and the remaining 4 2yo winners still have a chance to prove themselves as 3yo+). No Nay Never failed to win the BC Turf Sprint by just 1/2L. Acapulco is now in training with Aidan O’Brien, so they must have hopes for her as a 4yo. Daddy Long Legs did train on to perform well in the early part of his 3yo season, whatever may have happened to him subsequently. Caravaggio and Lady Aurelia have yet to run as 3yos. That accounts for all the Scat Daddies of note this side of the pond.
Regarding Caravaggio and the 2000 Guineas, I see a Scat Daddy colt out of a Holy Bull mare (same breeding as Caravaggio) won a stakes race over a mile at the weekend having made his debut over 5f last August. So, can be done!Each to their own beliefs, I am going against them regarding UK Classics, as I have done successfully up to now,
I didn’t realise a Scat Daddy had run in a UK classic? What have I missed?
Saying that, I don’t see them running Caravaggio in the 2000 Guineas, I think they will run Churchill and War Decree, with Cliffs of Moher running in the French Guineas and Caravaggio in the Commonwealth Cup.
I’d say this is how it likely pans out. I for one hope Caravaggio does train on as he has the potential to be one of the stars of the season.
Agree, and the Commonwealth Cup is a prestigious enough target in itself.
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