2000 guineas 2015

Win or lose, I think Estidhkaar is too short at 8/1.

Time will tell how good the Greenham was but it seems pretty certain the fast ground caught several of them out. Belardo was way back and is said to be missing the Guineas to head for the French version on, hopefully more suitable ground. Dick Whittington looked as if it was all happening too quickly for him on that surface and he plugged on without ever getting involved.

Toocoolforschool is dropping back to sprint distances, Flaming Spear and Fannaan both looked out of their depth, perhaps not suited by the ground in the previously unbeaten Gosden colt’s case.

We are really only left with how good Ivawood and Muhaarar currently are, when assessing the strength of Estidhkaar’s Guineas claim.

Ivawood finished last season on a low, narrowly beaten on the soft by Godolphin’s Charming Thought. The Godolphin horse was deemed to have run a huge personal best by the handicapper, rather than Ivawood having run a lot below his best. That is always the case with these scenarios and a setback with Charming Thought’s training this year means he misses the Guineas and we won’t get to see what level he is operating at after his hike in the ratings until at least Royal Ascot.

Ivawood was reported by the jockey to be flying but in the aftermath of his reasonably distant fourth it was quickly put to us that he “badly needed the race”, as always it would have been nicer for backers to have heard that beforehand but it just seems to be part and parcel of the sport, that pertinent information is deemed unfit for broadcast until it becomes necessary as an excuse for a run and the building of a case for redemption in the big race.

I backed Ivawood for the Guineas last year and I reckon I’ve got next to no chance of collecting on the bet.

Muhaarar is a horse I reckoned would be a sprinter. He won the Gimcrack and I have always been wary of trying to find Guineas winners from that race. He had been third to Ivawood in the July stakes and then been beaten by Kodi Bear when trying 7f in listed company. He was again behind Ivawood in the Middle Park, where the 6f might have suited but, in retrospect, perhaps the soft ground made stamina an issue. It’s only a theory for now but the track record on the fast surface may have indicated a race that suited the speed horses and perhaps it played out as an extended sprint on the day. My own feeling is that the mile might not play to Muhaarar’s strengths but whether he should be 20/1 with Estidhkaar 8/1 is a strong moot point.

Looking at the contenders, I feel Elm Park is woefully short for a Racing Post Trophy winner on soft, meeting much faster horses this time. Is his class sufficient to concede fitness to some of the field, does he have sufficient pace, will he handle the track? Plenty questions of a horse heading to single figure odds.

Much is going to depend on how many horses Aiden O’Brien sends. It looked like it might be two, with Gleneagles and Highland Reel being nominated as the only definite runners but I notice Ol’ Man River has been clipped in from the 25/1 and 20/1 quotes of late to a best priced 16/1, so I am wondering if he is going to turn up after all?

There has certainly been nothing to put the frighteners on the Coolmore team and it’s looking likely he’ll be collecting the Guineas and sitting with a log jam of short priced Derby runners.

It looks like apart from AOB its a case of finding an unexposed sort or something with a smaller trainer to back.
With the possible exception of Estidhkaar everything has disappointed in the trials and it does look to me that further afield is the place to look regarding value in this race.
Maybe something like Dutch Connection or Endless Drama ?

Personally I shall be sitting and waiting to see what actually turns up on the day and then have a bet.

A couple of things.

Today is a forfeit stage for the Guineas and exchange markets are suspended…anyone know when the entries are released?
I thought it would be earlier today but apparently not.

On the likely ground, the weather forecast I have access to shows dry, warm weather until Saturday of this week and then rain every day from Sunday 26th till Thursday 30th. Could yet be softer than current ground across the country (but hopefully not).

going for DUTCH CONNECTION had a bit of info from good contact. thought he ran a great race behind glen eagles and will have come on a ton. massive ew for me.

Maurice wrote:

By the way, I tried to watch the C4 programme at on-demand. What a disaster area that is!

First I had to register just to view then it took an age to load, then I had to suffer adverts that I could not skip, then when I tried to move the programme on a bit it just kept taking me to adverts that were due to last anything up to five minutes.

I fired an email off to C4 but don’t imagine I’ll get much satisfaction.

Their reply:

Tough titty – you need to watch the adverts.

Maurice wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Win or lose, I think Estidhkaar is too short at 8/1.

What should be shorter than it?

Maybe your logic works differently to mine Maurice.

I don’t work on which horses should be which price.

My logic is that any individual horse has to beat the field to win the race. I judge the price of the horse in question and consider if there is value in the odds offered.

In the circumstances, with ground potentially less fast than it was in the Greenham, an extra furlong to cover at Newmarket and an, as yet, unknown quantity of O’Brien turning up, I feel 8/1 is poor value.

Estidhkaar’s Champagne Stakes win from War Envoy, Aces and Belardo hardly reads that well and I think his Superlative Stakes win has been his best performance.

Hamdan Al Maktoum likes his horses to be ridden prominently and Estidhkaar was prominent and/or keen in most of his races last year. In fact the twice he ran below par, he dwelt and wasn’t able to get involved early. Assuming he runs prominently at Newmarket, you can’t help but think he’ll set it up for a finisher.

Gleneagles has not gone out and spread-eagled a field yet and to me he may be a horse who doesn’t do a lot in front. Aiden O’Brien said something along those lines reasonably recently and you feel he might stalk Estidhkaar if that horse sets off near the front. I wouldn’t be keen on trying to hold Estidhkaar up, because of the way he ran when he missed the kick twice last year.

Of course, when a top trainer says a horse is going to win a race, people put money on that horse. Estidhkaar has been backed and, in my opinion he’s now shorter than he should be in a generally very open race outside the favourite. Some people may see him as an each-way lock for the race, but at 8/1 you are actually betting 1/2 your money each-way for the place. ie quarter odds 2/1, £1 each-way, £2 staked, £3 returned. He’s not for me but the best of luck to him and his supporters.

Zarkava wrote:

I’m not sure what you think should be shorter in the betting than Estidhkaar, Steve. I agree Hannon’s comments should be taken with a large pinch of salt. Nothing he or Hughes says will ever have an effect on my punts. However, the form of the race actually works out very well IMO and far better than any other piece of form in the Guineas book (although I would say that given my ante-post punts for the race…).

A good friend of mine and very good paddock judge says Estidhkaar is a big bull of a horse. If that’s true, he almost certainly needed the outing. I was a little concerned about Hanagan giving him a few smacks, especially given the fast time, but the 1-2 in the Guineas last year only had a 2-week gap. And the horse whose profile Estidhkaar reminds me of, Haafhd, had only 15 days rest after winning the Craven in a very quick time. Btw the reason I say Estidhkaar reminds me of Haafhd is because I remember a poster on here putting up Haafhd all winter for the Guineas owing to his very high OR, which I think was 115 (same as Estidhkaar’s winter OR). He was 33s most of the winter because he ‘disappointed’ in the Craven, much like Estidhkaar.

The bare form of the Greenham IMO is very good. Dick Whittington beaten 8L – a Group 1 winner beaten double the distance any horse beat him by last year. Ivawood beaten nearly 5L. Ivawood is a good horse. He probably didn’t quite get the trip and ran below what he’s capable of but still, he’s a good marker, particularly given he beat Dick Whittington by 3+L. Toocoolforschool in 5th beaten 8 1/2L – a horse that was beaten 1/2L by Nafaqa and by a head by Dutch Connection. Code Red, beaten 10 1/2L in 6th – won a Listed race on his final start as a 2yo. The further you go back, the better the form looks. Belardo’s run I think can be completely disregarded. I’m still a little concerned that the race didn’t get a higher rating. I’m not a strictly ratings guy but I think they can be useful in several situations.

There are a few slow-looking Derby-prep horses high up in the betting which don’t frighten me – Elm Park, Highland Reel, Old Man River. Muhaarar looks to have a shout if he turns up, but the fact that Frankie got off and instantly said French 2000 is probably a good indicator of the horse’s ability (and stamina?). The Wow Signal looks rapid – does he stay? Celestial Path looks like he needs a trip. So the obvious horse to fear is Gleneagles. Seems like a pretty slow horse with not much kick. I think you’re justified in saying the same about Estidhkaar but he’s put up very good times in the process, and if you look at War Envoy’s Champagne running vs his Jean-Luc Lagardere running 3 weeks later, that puts Estidhkaar ahead of Gleneagles by 1/2L. Gleneagles was also a couple of career starts ahead of Estidhkaar at that point and his dam was an all-out 2yo. Add in the fact that Gleneagles is a January colt and I think the signs point to a very forward 2yo.

8/1 Estidhkaar implies roughly a 11% chance of winning. Personally I still think those are great odds given what’s around him.

As I have said, it’s not about putting horses in shorter than Estidhkaar, it is solely about his odds and whether they represent value.

You need to weigh up every factor when considering a bet and one of the most obvious concerns with Estidhkaar is that he’s been beaten three times and one of those three times was on his latest start. Has he won at the distance before? No he hasn’t, that’s another question mark.

At the moment we’re only guessing how good the form of the Greenham will pan out. Several horses didn’t seem to like the fast ground, Toocoolforschool didn’t stay in the opinion of his trainer and is going sprinting. Did Ivawood get tired, did he need the run, has he trained on? He was hot favourite I doubt he’s run to his best. Will Muhaarar confirm the form with Estidhkaar, should he be more than double the odds of the Hannon horse?

Dick Whittington came into the race at 10/1 so it didn’t seem like he was expected to win, it looked to me that conditions were too fast for him. Where does he sit compared to the other O’Brien candidates in any case? Only the Ballydoyle team will know for now.

I would be wary of trying to read formlines into putting horses ahead of Gleneagles, he’s not a horse to win by far and he usually gets the job done. At this early stage of the season I would still see his extra months of age as an advantage. We often hear about the Guineas coming “soon enough” and he may hold a slight physical edge for the first Classic and then perhaps be caught up as the later foals mature.

As to the race itself, will they let Estidhkaar bowl along or try to settle him? Will Aiden O’Brien run one of his to give Gleneagles some pace to run at, will there be a battle for the lead that sets it up for the finishers?

If Estidhkaar is as sure a thing as Hannon has said, why would they bother running Ivawood? Ivawood’s owners have surely heard their horse can’t win it now?

For me, it’s a hard race to be too confident about anything and you would need good odds to be thinking about a bet. I’ve played on a handful of horses so far at odds of 20/1 and upwards and have a couple of chances left. I doubt I will play on the day, as there will probably be little value and there are a few too many who I think might just struggle to get a strongly run mile on decent racing ground.

It might be just a race for me to watch in the end and I’d rather leave Estidhkaar and see him win it, than get involved at 8/1. If other people see value, the best of luck to them.

Hannon didn’t say it direct on camera as far as I’m aware and was a tongue in check comment.
When I asked him the other day why Peacock wasn’t running in the guineas he told me it was because he was aiming him at the Arc……..