2000 guineas 2015

I had Moheet down as more a Derby contender and Kool Kompany too pacy for a mile so I am bit surprised to see them in the Craven, thought Hannon would of split Ivawood and Estidhkaar. I think Nafaqa will take all the beating but again being first time out would not bet with any real confidence.

The Ante-Post King wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>nwalton wrote:</div>
yep john gosden’s said he’s not going

There wasn’t any point after that effort. Gosden said:-

Gosden was quick to rule Faydhan out of the Newmarket Classic: “It was not unexpected as he has only won a maiden and is a slow learner.

1/2 Favourite beaten, not unexpected?

Might have been nice if he had let punters know that he wasn’t confident and considered the horse a slow learner. I wasn’t on him today but I loathe these comments that surface after defeat.

Well said Steve,4/1 about ‘Faydhan’ for the Guineas was a joke,these ‘War Fronts’ just dont do it for me.

I think Faydhan was about 12/1 when he caught my eye as a contender, but to end up 4/1 without doing anything was crazy.

Fellow War Front stable mate Lady Correspondent was also disappointing today, fading rather tamely in the Nell Gwyn.

That’s Richard Pankhurst out with an injury and Faydhan too slow to come to hand for a Guineas. John Gosden just can’t seem to get them ready early and even when he did have one really good last year it still conspired that he didn’t win it.

I am running out of bullets here and have Ivawood left as my best hope at 20/1 from last year. Cue an earthquake and the horse’s legs falling off in a landslide

The Craven was a disappointing trial in the sense that the most exposed horse in the field won. The best of luck to Kool Kompany who had some decent form last year but he was a busy boy last year and it’s a bit sad that nothing could take advantage of getting weight.

Nafaqa seemed to take a bit of time to settle today and I wouldn’t rule him out of improving a little on today’s effort but it just wasn’t a race to get excited about with regard to the Guineas.

Moheet was well supported today but got the predictable held up ride and couldn’t find enough to get involved. Perhaps a little bit further might help him but he was mighty short as the winner of a maiden race that hasn’t panned out well.

The Greenham would seem one of the last chances for something to emerge as a realistic rival for Gleneagles, who is as low as 7/4 in places now. It’s amazing that a horse can contract so much without doing anything and it’s a sad indictment of these trial races that nothing seems to be emerging as a true contender and instead they are just being paid due respect by trimming the odds appropriately.

Ivawood and Fannaan are my last two chances from the big odds selections I had for the race. Technically Ol’ Man River is still in there but it doesn’t look like he’s turning up, with 25/1 available now.

I hope the Greenham throws up a decent challenger, as it is beginning to look a Guineas with little strength in depth between flops and injury.

stevecaution wrote:

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The Greenham would seem one of the last chances for something to emerge as a realistic rival for Gleneagles, who is as low as 7/4 in places now. It’s amazing that a horse can contract so much without doing anything and it’s a sad indictment of these trial races that nothing seems to be emerging as a true contender and instead they are just being paid due respect by trimming the odds appropriately.

I see what you mean Stevie, re Gleneagles ‘without doing anything’ but there is another way to consider it perhaps. Aidan has won the Guineas 6 times and none of those winners had a prep run at three, so Gleneagles approach is pretty standard.
I wouldn’t go as far as to call his price restriction amazing as those 6 winners started at 7/2, 9/1, 6/4, 13/2, 12/1 and 15/8…and they didn’t do anything in public at three prior to the Guineas to bring the price down.
Gleneagles 2yo career is arguably superior to 4 of those winners and on a par with another in George Washington (6/4). Only Rock of Gibraltar had a more stellar juvenile campaign and he only started at 9/1 because of a stable mate in Hawk Wing who they thought the world of.
Gleneagles was still 10/1 in mid March and I then think a couple of things happened, firstly he must done pretty well in home work as the Ballydoyle team measure everything from lung capacity, blood circulation rate to recovery time so he was probably fine on all their numbers.
Secondly, I think there was a general realisation that (compared to the alternative candidates) he had been under rated as to his juvenile career which was not too shabby at all…taking in victories in Futurity, National and Lagadere. He was only around 8th best, I think, on European ratings for 2014 which I thought was surprising.
Also there was a dawning that the other candidates where not on paper the strongest on breeding or profile for first classic (Elm Park, Ol Man River, Faydhan, Estidkhaar etc.), a couple of others have dropped out.
Belardo and Ivawood could yet emerge as strong challengers but Gleneagles is a full brother to Marvellous and his dam was a full sister to Giants Causeway, he is bred for it and likely decent ground would really help him and disadvantage some others.
Its probably only one year in ten when the trials actually throw up a horse that moves up the market and wins, or even goes close.
Most bookmakers reckon he now has a about a 28% chance of winning at Newmarket …. and to me that feels about right.

I know Kool Kompany isn’t dish of the day on here to win the 2000 Guineas but I was at the Craven meeting yesterday at Newmarket and pleased to say I backed him. If you saw him in the paddock he was a different horse to the one that turned out at the end of last season for The Dewhurst, he looked a picture in the sunshine and was extremely well in himself.

No signs of him not getting a mile as he motored up the stiff uphill finish at Newmarket keeping all his rivals at bay. I went round after the race to the cooling off area to see how he had faired and he honestly looked as though he could do it all again.

No Craven Stakes winner has won the Guineas since Haafd but on that performance I think he could do it so I’m off to Corals to take the 33’s today.

I’ve no idea how the other contenders have faired through the winter but Kool Kompany owes me not one penny so I’m hoping his big white face will lead them home on May 2nd..

Jac

Hughes saying that about Kool Kompany is a huge compliment to the horse as in his mind Ivawood hacks up tomorrow and is his ride in the guineas and saying preferably KK goes elsewhere is him being greedy wanting to get the ride without the horse having a hard time running in a guineas. Hannon wont fall for that bull-soup, will he?

After the trials I think Gleneagles is more the price now that he should be. Best priced around 2/1, can’t see that lasting too long given the seeming lack of quality opposition.

Highland Reel’s Goodwood from absolutely stinks now when you look at what the beaten horses from that race have done since – absolutely zilch is the answer.

Zawraq won well on his reappearance but that was in soft ground and the first thing Pat Smullen said when interviewed was that the horse wants further. He’d have a better chance in the Derby. That doesn’t mean they won’t take in the Guineas en route but he probably won’t have the speed to win it. May go another route anyway.

I wouldn’t rule out Elm Park if he turns up. Other than him it’s very hard to see what is going to put up any sort of challenge to the favourite, especially if, as expected, Ryan Moore is onboard.

Hannon has supposedly said Estidhkaar will win the guineas after his performance yesterday.
I’m guessing he’s left plenty to work with and expects the horse to come on a bundle for the run out.